Article ; Online: Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemics.
Journal of infection and public health
2020 Volume 14, Issue 1, Page(s) 123–130
Abstract: ... of infectious diseases during outbreaks - when field epidemiological data collected from a novel outbreak of unknown ... available in different and progressive stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. As a comparison, the results ... of the fact that IDS has identified with a good accuracy the SARS and MERS epidemics (over 90 ...
| Abstract | Background: The aim of this research is to assess the predictive accuracy of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) - an innovative tool for prompt identification of the causative agent of infectious diseases during outbreaks - when field epidemiological data collected from a novel outbreak of unknown origin are analysed by the tool. For this reason, it has been taken into account the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, which began in China at the end of December 2019, has rapidly spread around the globe, and it has led to a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), declared to the 30th of January 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Methods: The IDS takes advantage of an off-line database, built before the COVID-19 pandemic, which represents a pivotal characteristic for working without an internet connection. The software has been tested using the epidemiological data available in different and progressive stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. As a comparison, the results of the tests performed using the epidemiological data from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemic in 2002 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in 2012, are shown. Results: The overall outcomes provided by the software are comforting, as a matter of the fact that IDS has identified with a good accuracy the SARS and MERS epidemics (over 90%), while, as expected, it has not provided erroneous and equivocal readings after the elaboration COVID-19 epidemic data. Conclusions: Even though IDS has not recognized the COVID-19 epidemic, it has not given to the end user a false result and wrong interpretation, as expected by the developers. For this reason, IDS reveals itself as useful software to identify a possible epidemic or outbreak. Thus, the intention of developers is to plan, once the software will be released, dedicated updates and upgrades of the database (e.g., SARS-CoV-2) in order to keep this tool increasingly useful and applicable to reality. |
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| MeSH term(s) | COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/virology ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/virology ; Databases, Factual ; Disease Outbreaks ; Global Health ; Humans ; Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus ; Population Surveillance ; SARS Virus ; SARS-CoV-2 |
| Language | English |
| Publishing date | 2020-12-09 |
| Publishing country | England |
| Document type | Comparative Study ; Journal Article |
| ISSN | 1876-035X |
| ISSN (online) | 1876-035X |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jiph.2020.11.014 |
| Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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