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  1. Article: Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics.

    Dbouk, Talib / Drikakis, Dimitris

    Physics of fluids (Woodbury, N.Y. : 1994)

    2021  Volume 33, Issue 2, Page(s) 21901

    Abstract: Epidemic models do not account for the effects of climate conditions on the transmission dynamics ... transmission, and pandemic outbreaks over a whole year. Using the data obtained from high-fidelity multi-phase ... We present the results for the number of cases and transmission rates for three cities, New York, Paris, and ...

    Abstract Epidemic models do not account for the effects of climate conditions on the transmission dynamics of viruses. This study presents the vital relationship between weather seasonality, airborne virus transmission, and pandemic outbreaks over a whole year. Using the data obtained from high-fidelity multi-phase, fluid dynamics simulations, we calculate the concentration rate of Coronavirus particles in contaminated saliva droplets and use it to derive a new Airborne Infection Rate (AIR) index. Combining the simplest form of an epidemiological model, the susceptible-infected-recovered, and the AIR index, we show through data evidence how weather seasonality induces two outbreaks per year, as it is observed with the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. We present the results for the number of cases and transmission rates for three cities, New York, Paris, and Rio de Janeiro. The results suggest that two pandemic outbreaks per year are inevitable because they are directly linked to what we call weather seasonality. The pandemic outbreaks are associated with changes in temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed independently of the particular season. We propose that epidemiological models must incorporate climate effects through the AIR index.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-02-02
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1472743-2
    ISSN 1089-7666 ; 1070-6631
    ISSN (online) 1089-7666
    ISSN 1070-6631
    DOI 10.1063/5.0037640
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Zika virus infection among symptomatic patients from two healthcare centers in Sao Paulo State, Brazil: prevalence, clinical characteristics, viral detection in body fluids and serodynamics.

    Tozetto-Mendoza, Tania Regina / Avelino-Silva, Vivian Iida / Fonseca, Silvia / Claro, Ingra Morales / Paula, Anderson Vicente de / Levin, Anna Sara / Sabino, Ester Cerdeira / Mendes-Correa, Maria Cassia / Figueiredo, Walter Manso / Felix, Alvina Clara / Souza, Nathalia C Santiago / Costa, Angela Aparecida / Inenami, Marta / Silva, Rosangela M Gasparetto da / Levi, José Eduardo / Romano, Camila Malta / Paranhos-Baccalà, Glaucia / Segurado, Aluisio Cotrim / Mayaud, Philippe

    Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de Sao Paulo

    2019  Volume 61, Page(s) e19

    Abstract: ... were investigated regarding clinical characteristics, shedding in body fluids, and serodynamics. Ninety ... had the highest sensitivity. Shedding in genital fluids and saliva was rare. IgM positivity was ... neighboring cities during the same transmission season. Urine Real-Time PCR can improve diagnostic sensitivity ...

    Abstract Zika virus (ZIKV) clinical presentation and frequency/duration of shedding need further clarification. Symptomatic ZIKV-infected individuals identified in two hospitals in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, were investigated regarding clinical characteristics, shedding in body fluids, and serodynamics. Ninety-four of 235 symptomatic patients (Site A: 58%; Site B: 16%) had Real-Time PCR-confirmed ZIKV infection; fever, headache and gastrointestinal symptoms were less frequent, and rash was more frequent compared to ZIKV-negative patients. Real-Time PCR in serum had worse performance compared to plasma, while urine had the highest sensitivity. Shedding in genital fluids and saliva was rare. IgM positivity was the highest <14 days after the symptoms onset (86%), decreasing >28 days (24%); IgG positivity increased >14 days (96%) remaining positive in 94% of patients >28 days. ZIKV prevalence varied importantly in two neighboring cities during the same transmission season. Urine Real-Time PCR can improve diagnostic sensitivity; serum testing is less useful. Accurate serological tests are needed to improve diagnosis and surveillance.
    MeSH term(s) Adult ; Bodily Secretions/virology ; Brazil/epidemiology ; Diagnosis, Differential ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Pregnancy ; Prevalence ; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Viral Load ; Zika Virus/isolation & purification ; Zika Virus Infection/diagnosis ; Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-04-04
    Publishing country Brazil
    Document type Journal Article ; Multicenter Study
    ZDB-ID 128928-7
    ISSN 1678-9946 ; 0036-4665
    ISSN (online) 1678-9946
    ISSN 0036-4665
    DOI 10.1590/S1678-9946201961019
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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