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  1. Article: COVID-19, fiscal federalism and provincial debt: Have we reached a critical juncture?

    Hanniman, Kyle

    Can. J. Polit. Sci.

    Abstract: ... surging provincial debts have brought Canadian federalism to a critical juncture: they have greatly ... a severe provincial debt crisis, which Canada's existing fiscal federal structures can avoid. COVID-19 has ... which would bolster provincial fiscal capacity, and national fiscal rules, which would constrain provincial ...

    Abstract In 2019, Canada's gross subnational debt to GDP was well over 40%, easily the highest in the world. This level will only grow as the provinces grapple with the pandemic and its fiscal effects. Some believe surging provincial debts have brought Canadian federalism to a critical juncture: they have greatly increased the odds of federal measures to stabilize provincial finances. This note assesses this claim. The cleanest and most balanced path to fiscal sustainability is a combination of enhanced federal transfers, which would bolster provincial fiscal capacity, and national fiscal rules, which would constrain provincial borrowing. But the former is unlikely to restore sustainability on its own and the latter would require a severe provincial debt crisis, which Canada's existing fiscal federal structures can avoid. COVID-19 has increased the odds of certain reforms and it is difficult to predict their long-run effects, but any obvious path to fiscal sustainability remains closed.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #608088
    Database COVID19

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  2. Article ; Online: COVID-19, Fiscal Federalism and Provincial Debt

    Hanniman, Kyle

    Canadian Journal of Political Science

    Have We Reached a Critical Juncture?

    2020  Volume 53, Issue 2, Page(s) 279–285

    Abstract: ... its fiscal effects. Some believe surging provincial debts have brought Canadian federalism to a critical ... and the latter would require a severe provincial debt crisis, which Canada's existing fiscal federal ... juncture: they have greatly increased the odds of federal measures to stabilize provincial finances ...

    Abstract In 2019, Canada's gross subnational debt to GDP was well over 40 per cent, easily the highest in the world (see Figure 1). This level will only grow as the provinces grapple with the pandemic and its fiscal effects. Some believe surging provincial debts have brought Canadian federalism to a critical juncture: they have greatly increased the odds of federal measures to stabilize provincial finances. This article assesses this claim. The cleanest and most balanced path to fiscal sustainability is a combination of enhanced federal transfers, which would bolster provincial fiscal capacity, and national fiscal rules, which would constrain provincial borrowing. But the former is unlikely to restore sustainability on its own, and the latter would require a severe provincial debt crisis, which Canada's existing fiscal federal structures can avoid. COVID-19 has increased the odds of certain reforms, and it is difficult to predict their long-run effects. But any obvious paths to fiscal sustainability remain hidden.
    Keywords Sociology and Political Science ; covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Cambridge University Press (CUP)
    Publishing country uk
    Document type Article ; Online
    ZDB-ID 2066084-4
    ISSN 1744-9324 ; 0008-4239
    ISSN (online) 1744-9324
    ISSN 0008-4239
    DOI 10.1017/s0008423920000621
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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