Article ; Online: Probabilistic analysis of COVID-19 patients' individual length of stay in Swiss intensive care units.
PloS one
2021 Volume 16, Issue 2, Page(s) e0247265
Abstract: ... Objectives: We aim to provide early predictions of individual patients' intensive care unit length of stay ... individual length of stay of patients in the RISC-19-ICU registry.: Measurements: The RISC-19-ICU ... probabilistic prediction of LoS of individual patients with COVID-19. Long staying patients could be discovered ...
| Abstract | Rationale: The COVID-19 pandemic induces considerable strain on intensive care unit resources. Objectives: We aim to provide early predictions of individual patients' intensive care unit length of stay, which might improve resource allocation and patient care during the on-going pandemic. Methods: We developed a new semiparametric distributional index model depending on covariates which are available within 24h after intensive care unit admission. The model was trained on a large cohort of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients out of the Minimal Dataset of the Swiss Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Then, we predict individual length of stay of patients in the RISC-19-ICU registry. Measurements: The RISC-19-ICU Investigators for Switzerland collected data of 557 critically ill patients with COVID-19. Main results: The model gives probabilistically and marginally calibrated predictions which are more informative than the empirical length of stay distribution of the training data. However, marginal calibration was worse after approximately 20 days in the whole cohort and in different subgroups. Long staying COVID-19 patients have shorter length of stay than regular acute respiratory distress syndrome patients. We found differences in LoS with respect to age categories and gender but not in regions of Switzerland with different stress of intensive care unit resources. Conclusion: A new probabilistic model permits calibrated and informative probabilistic prediction of LoS of individual patients with COVID-19. Long staying patients could be discovered early. The model may be the basis to simulate stochastic models for bed occupation in intensive care units under different casemix scenarios. |
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| MeSH term(s) | Aged ; COVID-19/mortality ; COVID-19/therapy ; Female ; Hospital Mortality ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; Intensive Care Units ; Length of Stay ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Biological ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Switzerland/epidemiology |
| Language | English |
| Publishing date | 2021-02-19 |
| Publishing country | United States |
| Document type | Clinical Trial ; Journal Article |
| ISSN | 1932-6203 |
| ISSN (online) | 1932-6203 |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0247265 |
| Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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