LIVIVO - The Search Portal for Life Sciences

zur deutschen Oberfläche wechseln
Advanced search

Search results

Result 1 - 5 of total 5

Search options

  1. Article ; Online: Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.

    Iboi, Enahoro A / Sharomi, Oluwaseun / Ngonghala, Calistus N / Gumel, Abba B

    Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE

    2020  Volume 17, Issue 6, Page(s) 7192–7220

    Abstract: ... 19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data ... that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-distancing strategy ... A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID ...

    Abstract A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in some jurisdictions within Nigeria (notably the states of Kano and Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja). Numerical simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-distancing strategy in the jurisdictions and in the entire nation. Although the use of face masks in public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use, as a sole intervention strategy, may fail to lead to a substantial reduction in disease burden. Such substantial reduction is feasible in the jurisdictions (and the entire Nigerian nation) if the public face mask use strategy is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The community lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an effort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; Communicable Disease Control ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Humans ; Masks ; Models, Theoretical ; Nigeria/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Physical Distancing ; Quarantine ; Treatment Outcome
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-12-09
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
    ZDB-ID 2265126-3
    ISSN 1551-0018 ; 1547-1063
    ISSN (online) 1551-0018
    ISSN 1547-1063
    DOI 10.3934/mbe.2020369
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

    Order via subito

    This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.

  2. Article ; Online: Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

    Iboi, E. A. / Sharomi, O. O. / Ngonghala, C. N. / Gumel, A. B.

    Abstract: ... control of COVID-19 in Nigeria, one of the main epicenters of COVID-19 in Africa. Rigorous analysis ... exposed to COVID-19. We developed a mathematical model for understanding the transmission dynamics and ... The model, which was parametrized using COVID-19 data published by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC ...

    Abstract A novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, emerged from the Wuhan city of China at the end of 2019, causing devastating public health and socio-economic burden around the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral for use in humans, control and mitigation efforts against COVID-19 are focussed on using non-pharmaceutical interventions (aimed at reducing community transmission of COVID-19), such as social (physical)-distancing, community lockdown, use of face masks in public, isolation and contact tracing of confirmed cases and quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to COVID-19. We developed a mathematical model for understanding the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria, one of the main epicenters of COVID-19 in Africa. Rigorous analysis of the Kermack-McKendrick-type compartmental epidemic model we developed, which takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, reveal that the model has a continuum of disease-free equilibria which is locally-asymptotically stable whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, called the it control reproduction (denoted by Rc), is less than unity. The epidemiological implication of this result is that the pandemic can be effectively controlled (or even eliminated) in Nigeria if the control strategies implemented can bring (and maintain) the epidemiological threshold (Rc) to a value less than unity. The model, which was parametrized using COVID-19 data published by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in the entire Nigerian nation, as well as in two states (Kano and Lagos) within the Nigerian federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT Abuja). It was shown that, for the worst-case scenario where social-distancing, lockdown and other community transmission reduction measures are not implemented, Nigeria would have recorded a devastatingly high COVID-19 mortality by April 2021 (in hundreds of thousands). It was, however, shown that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled using social-distancing measures provided its effectiveness level is at least moderate. Although the use of face masks in the public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use as a sole intervention strategy may fail to lead to the realistic elimination of the disease (since such elimination requires unrealistic high compliance in face mask usage in the public, in the range of 80% to 95%). COVID-19 elimination is feasible in both the entire Nigerian nation, and the States of Kano and Lagos, as well as the FCT, if the public face masks use strategy (using mask with moderate efficacy, and moderate compliance in its usage) is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an effort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher MedRxiv; WHO
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.05.22.20110387
    Database COVID19

    Kategorien

    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

  3. Article ; Online: Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

    Iboi, Enahoro A. / Sharomi, Oluwaseun O. / Ngonghala, Calistus N. / Gumel, Abba B.

    medRxiv

    Abstract: ... control of COVID-19 in Nigeria, one of the main epicenters of COVID-19 in Africa. Rigorous analysis ... exposed to COVID-19. We developed a mathematical model for understanding the transmission dynamics and ... ) to a value less than unity. The model, which was parametrized using COVID-19 data published by Nigeria Centre ...

    Abstract A novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, emerged from the Wuhan city of China at the end of 2019, causing devastating public health and socio-economic burden around the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral for use in humans, control and mitigation efforts against COVID-19 are focussed on using non-pharmaceutical interventions (aimed at reducing community transmission of COVID-19), such as social (physical)-distancing, community lockdown, use of face masks in public, isolation and contact tracing of confirmed cases and quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to COVID-19. We developed a mathematical model for understanding the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria, one of the main epicenters of COVID-19 in Africa. Rigorous analysis of the Kermack-McKendrick-type compartmental epidemic model we developed, which takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, reveal that the model has a continuum of disease-free equilibria which is locally-asymptotically stable whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, called the it control reproduction (denoted by R<sub>c</sub>), is less than unity. The epidemiological implication of this result is that the pandemic can be effectively controlled (or even eliminated) in Nigeria if the control strategies implemented can bring (and maintain) the epidemiological threshold (R<sub>c</sub>) to a value less than unity. The model, which was parametrized using COVID-19 data published by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in the entire Nigerian nation, as well as in two states (Kano and Lagos) within the Nigerian federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT Abuja). It was shown that, for the worst-case scenario where social-distancing, lockdown and other community transmission reduction measures are not implemented, Nigeria would have recorded a devastatingly high COVID-19 mortality by April 2021 (in hundreds of thousands). It was, however, shown that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled using social-distancing measures provided its effectiveness level is at least moderate. Although the use of face masks in the public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use as a sole intervention strategy may fail to lead to the realistic elimination of the disease (since such elimination requires unrealistic high compliance in face mask usage in the public, in the range of 80% to 95%). COVID-19 elimination is feasible in both the entire Nigerian nation, and the States of Kano and Lagos, as well as the FCT, if the public face masks use strategy (using mask with moderate efficacy, and moderate compliance in its usage) is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an effort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-06-02
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.05.22.20110387
    Database COVID19

    Full text online

    Kategorien

    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

  4. Article ; Online: Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs.

    Musa, Salihu Sabiu / Qureshi, Sania / Zhao, Shi / Yusuf, Abdullahi / Mustapha, Umar Tasiu / He, Daihai

    Infectious Disease Modelling

    2021  Volume 6, Page(s) 448–460

    Abstract: ... of active cases are essential tools for effective control and mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and ... we propose a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Our model ... in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nigeria is currently witnessing a rapid increase of the epidemic likely ...

    Abstract Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely been controlled in China since March 2020, but continues to inflict severe public health and socioeconomic burden in other parts of the world. One of the major reasons for China's success for the fight against the epidemic is the effectiveness of its health care system and enlightenment (awareness) programs which play a vital role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nigeria is currently witnessing a rapid increase of the epidemic likely due to its unsatisfactory health care system and inadequate awareness programs. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Our model incorporates awareness programs and different hospitalization strategies for mild and severe cases, to assess the effect of public awareness on the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. We fit the model to the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria from 29 March to 12 June 2020. We find that the epidemic could increase if awareness programs are not properly adopted. We presumed that the effect of awareness programs could be estimated. Further, our results suggest that the awareness programs and timely hospitalization of active cases are essential tools for effective control and mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and beyond. Finally, we perform sensitive analysis to point out the key parameters that should be considered to effectively control the epidemic.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-02-18
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 3015225-2
    ISSN 2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
    ISSN (online) 2468-0427
    ISSN 2468-2152
    DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2021.01.012
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

    Order via subito

    This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.

  5. Article ; Online: Healthcare utilization and maternal and child mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 18 low- and middle-income countries: An interrupted time-series analysis with mathematical modeling of administrative data.

    Ahmed, Tashrik / Roberton, Timothy / Vergeer, Petra / Hansen, Peter M / Peters, Michael A / Ofosu, Anthony Adofo / Mwansambo, Charles / Nzelu, Charles / Wesseh, Chea Sanford / Smart, Francis / Alfred, Jean Patrick / Diabate, Mamoutou / Baye, Martina / Yansane, Mohamed Lamine / Wendrad, Naod / Mohamud, Nur Ali / Mbaka, Paul / Yuma, Sylvain / Ndiaye, Youssoupha /
    Sadat, Husnia / Uddin, Helal / Kiarie, Helen / Tsihory, Raharison / Mwinnyaa, George / de Dieu Rusatira, Jean / Amor Fernandez, Pablo / Muhoza, Pierre / Baral, Prativa / Drouard, Salomé / Hashemi, Tawab / Friedman, Jed / Shapira, Gil

    PLoS medicine

    2022  Volume 19, Issue 8, Page(s) e1004070

    Abstract: Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had wide-reaching direct and ... to the monthly number of COVID-19 deaths officially reported, time since the start of the pandemic, and relative ... utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic amplified the pandemic's harmful impacts on health outcomes and ...

    Abstract Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had wide-reaching direct and indirect impacts on population health. In low- and middle-income countries, these impacts can halt progress toward reducing maternal and child mortality. This study estimates changes in health services utilization during the pandemic and the associated consequences for maternal, neonatal, and child mortality.
    Methods and findings: Data on service utilization from January 2018 to June 2021 were extracted from health management information systems of 18 low- and lower-middle-income countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Uganda). An interrupted time-series design was used to estimate the percent change in the volumes of outpatient consultations and maternal and child health services delivered during the pandemic compared to projected volumes based on prepandemic trends. The Lives Saved Tool mathematical model was used to project the impact of the service utilization disruptions on child and maternal mortality. In addition, the estimated monthly disruptions were also correlated to the monthly number of COVID-19 deaths officially reported, time since the start of the pandemic, and relative severity of mobility restrictions. Across the 18 countries, we estimate an average decline in OPD volume of 13.1% and average declines of 2.6% to 4.6% for maternal and child services. We projected that decreases in essential health service utilization between March 2020 and June 2021 were associated with 113,962 excess deaths (110,686 children under 5, and 3,276 mothers), representing 3.6% and 1.5% increases in child and maternal mortality, respectively. This excess mortality is associated with the decline in utilization of the essential health services included in the analysis, but the utilization shortfalls vary substantially between countries, health services, and over time. The largest disruptions, associated with 27.5% of the excess deaths, occurred during the second quarter of 2020, regardless of whether countries reported the highest rate of COVID-19-related mortality during the same months. There is a significant relationship between the magnitude of service disruptions and the stringency of mobility restrictions. The study is limited by the extent to which administrative data, which varies in quality across countries, can accurately capture the changes in service coverage in the population.
    Conclusions: Declines in healthcare utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic amplified the pandemic's harmful impacts on health outcomes and threaten to reverse gains in reducing maternal and child mortality. As efforts and resource allocation toward prevention and treatment of COVID-19 continue, essential health services must be maintained, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; Child ; Child Health Services ; Child Mortality ; Developing Countries ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; Patient Acceptance of Health Care
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-08-30
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2185925-5
    ISSN 1549-1676 ; 1549-1277
    ISSN (online) 1549-1676
    ISSN 1549-1277
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004070
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 6042: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 2021: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

    Order via subito

    This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.

To top