Article ; Online: Temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat COVID-19 spread.
2021 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 9221
Abstract: ... sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests ... on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false ... 19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make ...
| Abstract | Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~ 17 to ~ 48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans. |
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| MeSH term(s) | COVID-19/diagnosis ; COVID-19/etiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/virology ; COVID-19 Serological Testing/methods ; Carrier State ; Contact Tracing ; False Negative Reactions ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Stochastic Processes ; Viral Load |
| Language | English |
| Publishing date | 2021-04-28 |
| Publishing country | England |
| Document type | Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural |
| ZDB-ID | 2615211-3 |
| ISSN | 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322 |
| ISSN (online) | 2045-2322 |
| ISSN | 2045-2322 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41598-021-88498-9 |
| Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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