Article ; Online: Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives.
2021 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 2425
Abstract: ... from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based ... that, as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is ... As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated ...
| Abstract | Countries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based on epidemic trajectories of 25 highly developed countries and 10 US states in the (mobility reduction)-(reproduction number) plane we showed that delay in imposition of nation-wide quarantine elevates the number of infections and deaths, surge of which inevitably has to be suppressed by stringent and sustained lockdown. As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated deaths are significantly correlated and this correlation increases with time. Overall, we demonstrated that, as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep and long-lasting lockdown causing a severe economic downturn. |
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| MeSH term(s) | COVID-19/economics ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Developed Countries/statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Pandemics/economics ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Public Health ; Quarantine/economics ; Quarantine/statistics & numerical data ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ; United States/epidemiology |
| Language | English |
| Publishing date | 2021-01-28 |
| Publishing country | England |
| Document type | Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
| ZDB-ID | 2615211-3 |
| ISSN | 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322 |
| ISSN (online) | 2045-2322 |
| ISSN | 2045-2322 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41598-021-81869-2 |
| Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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