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  1. Article ; Online: Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.

    Monod, Mélodie / Blenkinsop, Alexandra / Xi, Xiaoyue / Hebert, Daniel / Bershan, Sivan / Tietze, Simon / Baguelin, Marc / Bradley, Valerie C / Chen, Yu / Coupland, Helen / Filippi, Sarah / Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan / McManus, Martin / Mellan, Thomas / Gandy, Axel / Hutchinson, Michael / Unwin, H Juliette T / van Elsland, Sabine L / Vollmer, Michaela A C /
    Weber, Sebastian / Zhu, Harrison / Bezancon, Anne / Ferguson, Neil M / Mishra, Swapnil / Flaxman, Seth / Bhatt, Samir / Ratmann, Oliver

    Science (New York, N.Y.)

    2021  Volume 371, Issue 6536

    Abstract: ... individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data ... COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are ... epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths. ...

    Abstract After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.
    MeSH term(s) Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Basic Reproduction Number ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/mortality ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Cell Phone ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Communicable Disease Control ; Epidemics/prevention & control ; Humans ; Infant ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Schools ; United States/epidemiology ; Young Adult
    Chemical Substances COVID-19 Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-02-02
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 128410-1
    ISSN 1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
    ISSN (online) 1095-9203
    ISSN 0036-8075
    DOI 10.1126/science.abe8372
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  2. Article ; Online: Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

    Monod, Mélodie / Blenkinsop, Alexandra / Xi, Xiaoyue / Hebert, Daniel / Bershan, Sivan / Bradley, Valerie C / Chen, Yu / Coupland, Helen / Filippi, Sarah / Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan / McManus, Martin / Mellan, Thomas A / Gandy, Axel / Hutchinson, Michael / Unwin, H Juliette T / Vollmer, Michaela A. C. / Weber, Sebastian / Zhu, Harrison / Bezancon, Anne /
    Tietze, Simon / Ferguson, Neil M / Mishra, Swapnil / Flaxman, Seth / Bhatt, Samir / Ratmann, Oliver / Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team

    medRxiv

    Abstract: ... COVID-19) has occurred in the United States and parts of Europe. Despite the wide implementation of non ... other demographics. As COVID-19 disease control becomes more localised, understanding the age demographics driving ... than 10 million individuals and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data ...

    Abstract Following initial declines, in mid 2020, a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has occurred in the United States and parts of Europe. Despite the wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, it is still not known how they are impacted by changing contact patterns, age and other demographics. As COVID-19 disease control becomes more localised, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these impacts the loosening of interventions such as school reopening is crucial. Considering dynamics for the United States, we analyse aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. In contrast to previous approaches, we link mobility to mortality via age-specific contact patterns and use this rich relationship to reconstruct accurate transmission dynamics. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we find little support for age-shifts in contact and transmission dynamics over time. We estimate that, until August, 63.4% [60.9%-65.5%] of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States originated from adults aged 20-49, while 1.2% [0.8%-1.8%] originated from children aged 0- 9. In areas with continued, community-wide transmission, our transmission model predicts that re-opening kindergartens and elementary schools could facilitate spread and lead to additional COVID-19 attributable deaths over a 90-day period. These findings indicate that targeting interventions to adults aged 20-49 are an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths when kindergartens and elementary schools reopen.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-09-22
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.09.18.20197376
    Database COVID19

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  3. Article ; Online: Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

    Monod, Mélodie / Blenkinsop, Alexandra / Xi, Xiaoyue / Hebert, Daniel / Bershan, Sivan / Bradley, Valerie C / Chen, Yu / Coupland, Helen / Filippi, Sarah / Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan / McManus, Martin / Mellan, Thomas A / Gandy, Axel / Hutchinson, Michael / Unwin, H Juliette T / Vollmer, Michaela A. C. / Weber, Sebastian / Zhu, Harrison / Bezancon, Anne /
    Tietze, Simon / Ferguson, Neil M / Mishra, Swapnil / Flaxman, Seth / Bhatt, Samir / Ratmann, Oliver / Team, - Imperial College London COVID-19 Response

    Abstract: ... COVID-19) has occurred in the United States and parts of Europe. Despite the wide implementation of non ... other demographics. As COVID-19 disease control becomes more localised, understanding the age demographics driving ... than 10 million individuals and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data ...

    Abstract Following initial declines, in mid 2020, a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has occurred in the United States and parts of Europe. Despite the wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, it is still not known how they are impacted by changing contact patterns, age and other demographics. As COVID-19 disease control becomes more localised, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these impacts the loosening of interventions such as school reopening is crucial. Considering dynamics for the United States, we analyse aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. In contrast to previous approaches, we link mobility to mortality via age-specific contact patterns and use this rich relationship to reconstruct accurate transmission dynamics. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we find little support for age-shifts in contact and transmission dynamics over time. We estimate that, until August, 63.4% [60.9%-65.5%] of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States originated from adults aged 20-49, while 1.2% [0.8%-1.8%] originated from children aged 0- 9. In areas with continued, community-wide transmission, our transmission model predicts that re-opening kindergartens and elementary schools could facilitate spread and lead to additional COVID-19 attributable deaths over a 90-day period. These findings indicate that targeting interventions to adults aged 20-49 are an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths when kindergartens and elementary schools reopen.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher MedRxiv; WHO
    Document type Article ; Online
    Note WHO #Covidence: #20197376
    DOI 10.1101/2020.09.18.20197376
    Database COVID19

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  4. Article: Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

    Monod, Mélodie / Blenkinsop, Alexandra / Chen, Yu / Coupland, Helen / Filippi, Sarah / Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan / Mellan, Thomas / Gandy, Axel / Unwin, Juliette / van Elsland, Sabine L. / Vollmer, Michaela / Ferguson, Neil / Mishra, Swapnil / Flaxman, Seth / Bhatt, Samir / Ratmann, Oliver

    Science, 371(6536):8372

    2021  

    Abstract: ... of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States. Throughout the US epidemic ... Thus, adults aged 20 to 49 continue to be the only age groups that contribute disproportionately to COVID-19 ... reopening, we estimate that 75 of 100 COVID-19 infections originated from adults aged 20 to 49, and ...

    Abstract INTRODUCTION: After initial declines, in mid-2020, a sustained resurgence in the transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States. Throughout the US epidemic, considerable heterogeneity existed among states, both in terms of overall mortality and infection, but also in the types and stringency of nonpharmaceutical interventions. Despite these stark differences among states, little is known about the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and infections, or how this varies by age and demographics. A useful tool for studying these dynamics is individual, age-specific mobility data. In this study, we use detailed mobile-phone data from more than 10 million individuals and establish a mechanistic relationship between individual contact patterns and COVID-19 mortality data. RATIONALE: As the pandemic progresses, disease control responses are becoming increasingly nuanced and targeted. Understanding fine-scale patterns of how individuals interact with each other is essential to mounting an efficient public health control program. For example, the choice of closing workplaces, closing schools, limiting hospitality sectors, or prioritizing vaccination to certain population groups should be informed by the demographics currently driving and sustaining transmission. To develop the tools to answer such questions, we introduce a new framework that links mobility to mortality through age-specific contact patterns and then use this rich relationship to reconstruct accurate transmission dynamics (see figure panel A). RESULTS: We find that as of 29 October 2020, adults aged 20 to 34 and 35 to 49 are the only age groups that have sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers (transmission rates) consistently above one. The high reproduction numbers from adults are linked both to rebounding mobility over the summer and elevated transmission risks per venue visit among adults aged 20 to 49. Before school reopening, we estimate that 75 of 100 COVID-19 infections originated from adults aged 20 to 49, and the share of young adults aged 20 to 34 among COVID-19 infections was highly variable geographically. After school reopening, we reconstruct relatively modest shifts in the age-specific sources of resurgent COVID-19 toward younger individuals, with less than 5% of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions attributable to children aged 0 to 9 and less than 10% attributable to early adolescents and teenagers aged 10 to 19. Thus, adults aged 20 to 49 continue to be the only age groups that contribute disproportionately to COVID-19 spread relative to their size in the population (see figure panel B). However, because children and teenagers seed infections among adults who are more transmission efficient, we estimate that overall, school opening is indirectly associated with a 26% increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission. CONCLUSION: We show that considering transmission through the lens of contact patterns is fundamental to understanding which population groups are driving disease transmission. Over time, the share of age groups among reported deaths has been markedly constant, and the data provide no evidence that transmission shifted to younger age groups before school reopening, and no evidence that young adults aged 20 to 34 were the primary source of resurgent epidemics since the summer of 2020. Our key conclusion is that in locations where novel, highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 lineages have not yet become established, additional interventions among adults aged 20 to 49, such as mass vaccination with transmission-blocking vaccines, could bring resurgent COVID-19 epidemics under control and avert deaths.
    Keywords COVID-19
    Language English
    Document type Article
    Database Repository for Life Sciences

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  5. Book ; Online: ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model

    Swapnil Mishra / Fabian Valka / Christopher Cave-Ayland / Harrison Zhu / Måns Magnusson / bgoodri / Juliette Unwin / Seth Flaxman / Alexandre Payot / hrkulkarMsft / Melodie Monod

    Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

    2020  

    Abstract: Version 9 Release This is the release related to report 32 and medRxiv paper, where we use age ... specific mobility data to estimate the epidemic in the USA by accounting for age-specific heterogeneity ... in the age-specific model here. The code should be run in full mode to obtain credible results. Not running ...

    Abstract Version 9 Release This is the release related to report 32 and medRxiv paper, where we use age-specific mobility data to estimate the epidemic in the USA by accounting for age-specific heterogeneity. All other code is still the same for previous releases. To run this code you need to follow the steps listed in the age-specific model here. The code should be run in full mode to obtain credible results. Not running a full run to estimate anything is not recommended and discouraged. Only a full run should be used to get results. The instructions for European, Italy, Brazil, USA, Nature, and IFR code are the same as earlier (Look at version 3, version 4, version 5, version 6, version 7, and version 8). This release is specific to report 32. This release has been checked on macOS Catalina version 10.15.6/7 and Ubuntu version 18.04.2.
    Keywords covid19
    Publishing date 2020-09-30
    Publishing country eu
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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