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  1. Article: Assessing Interventions against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Osaka, Japan: A Modeling Study.

    Nakajo, Ko / Nishiura, Hiroshi

    Journal of clinical medicine

    2021  Volume 10, Issue 6

    Abstract: Estimation of the effective reproduction number, ...

    Abstract Estimation of the effective reproduction number,
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-03-18
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2662592-1
    ISSN 2077-0383
    ISSN 2077-0383
    DOI 10.3390/jcm10061256
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Assessing Interventions against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Osaka, Japan

    Ko Nakajo / Hiroshi Nishiura

    Journal of Clinical Medicine, Vol 10, Iss 1256, p

    A Modeling Study

    2021  Volume 1256

    Abstract: Estimation of the effective reproduction number, R ( t ), of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in real ... In the present study, we proposed a method for computing the R ( t ) of COVID-19, and applied this method ... to the epidemic in Osaka prefecture from February to September 2020. We estimated R ( t ) as a function ...

    Abstract Estimation of the effective reproduction number, R ( t ), of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in real-time is a continuing challenge. R ( t ) reflects the epidemic dynamics based on readily available illness onset data, and is useful for the planning and implementation of public health and social measures. In the present study, we proposed a method for computing the R ( t ) of COVID-19, and applied this method to the epidemic in Osaka prefecture from February to September 2020. We estimated R ( t ) as a function of the time of infection using the date of illness onset. The epidemic in Osaka came under control around 2 April during the first wave, and 26 July during the second wave. R ( t ) did not decline drastically following any single intervention. However, when multiple interventions were combined, the relative reductions in R ( t ) during the first and second waves were 70% and 51%, respectively. Although the second wave was brought under control without declaring a state of emergency, our model comparison indicated that relying on a single intervention would not be sufficient to reduce R ( t ) < 1. The outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rely on political leadership to swiftly design and implement combined interventions capable of broadly and appropriately reducing contacts.
    Keywords epidemiology ; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ; coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ; public health ; control ; mathematical model ; Medicine ; R
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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