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  1. Article: Analysis of a mathematical model for COVID-19 population dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria.

    Okuonghae, D / Omame, A

    Chaos, solitons, and fractals

    2020  Volume 139, Page(s) 110032

    Abstract: ... personal) on the population dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lagos, Nigeria ... contact tracing and subsequent testings) on the dynamics of COVID-19. We also provide forecasts for the cumulative ... Numerical simulations of the model show that if at least 55% of the population comply ...

    Abstract This work examines the impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures (government and personal) on the population dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lagos, Nigeria, using an appropriately formulated mathematical model. Using the available data, since its first reported case on 16 March 2020, we seek to develop a predicative tool for the cumulative number of reported cases and the number of active cases in Lagos; we also estimate the basic reproduction number of the disease outbreak in the aforementioned State in Nigeria. Using numerical simulations, we show the effect of control measures, specifically the common social distancing, use of face mask and case detection (via contact tracing and subsequent testings) on the dynamics of COVID-19. We also provide forecasts for the cumulative number of reported cases and active cases for different levels of the control measures being implemented. Numerical simulations of the model show that if at least 55% of the population comply with the social distancing regulation with about 55% of the population effectively making use of face masks while in public, the disease will eventually die out in the population and that, if we can step up the case detection rate for symptomatic individuals to about 0.8 per day, with about 55% of the population complying with the social distancing regulations, it will lead to a great decrease in the incidence (and prevalence) of COVID-19.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-06-20
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2003919-0
    ISSN 1873-2887 ; 0960-0779
    ISSN (online) 1873-2887
    ISSN 0960-0779
    DOI 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110032
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Analysis of a mathematical model for COVID-19 population dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria

    Okuonghae, D. / Omame, A.

    Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

    2020  Volume 139, Page(s) 110032

    Keywords General Mathematics ; covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier BV
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    ZDB-ID 2003919-0
    ISSN 1873-2887 ; 0960-0779
    ISSN (online) 1873-2887
    ISSN 0960-0779
    DOI 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110032
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

    Full text online

    More links

    Kategorien

    Order via subito

    This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.

  3. Article: Analysis of a mathematical model for COVID-19 population dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria

    Okuonghae, D. / Omame, A.

    Chaos Solitons Fractals

    Abstract: ... personal) on the population dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lagos, Nigeria ... contact tracing and subsequent testings) on the dynamics of COVID-19. We also provide forecasts for the cumulative ... Numerical simulations of the model show that if at least 55% of the population comply ...

    Abstract This work examines the impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures (government and personal) on the population dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lagos, Nigeria, using an appropriately formulated mathematical model. Using the available data, since its first reported case on 16 March 2020, we seek to develop a predicative tool for the cumulative number of reported cases and the number of active cases in Lagos; we also estimate the basic reproduction number of the disease outbreak in the aforementioned State in Nigeria. Using numerical simulations, we show the effect of control measures, specifically the common social distancing, use of face mask and case detection (via contact tracing and subsequent testings) on the dynamics of COVID-19. We also provide forecasts for the cumulative number of reported cases and active cases for different levels of the control measures being implemented. Numerical simulations of the model show that if at least 55% of the population comply with the social distancing regulation with about 55% of the population effectively making use of face masks while in public, the disease will eventually die out in the population and that, if we can step up the case detection rate for symptomatic individuals to about 0.8 per day, with about 55% of the population complying with the social distancing regulations, it will lead to a great decrease in the incidence (and prevalence) of COVID-19.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #610150
    Database COVID19

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  4. Article ; Online: Analysis of COVID-19 and comorbidity co-infection Model with Optimal Control

    Omame, Andrew / Sene, Ndolane / Nometa, Ikenna / Nwakanma, Cosmas Ifeanyi / Nwafor, Emmanuel Ugochukwu / Iheonu, Nneka Onyinyechi / Okuonghae, Daniel

    Abstract: ... a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in order to assess the impacts of prior comorbidity ... Sensitivity analysis of the model when the population of individuals co-infected with COVID-19 and comorbidity is used ... to the dynamics of the diseases in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods ...

    Abstract The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is a double challenge for people infected with comorbidities such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes. Comorbidities have been reported to be risk factors for the complications of COVID-19. In this work, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in order to assess the impacts of prior comorbidity on COVID-19 complications and COVID-19 re-infection. The model is simulated using data relevant to the dynamics of the diseases in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods in the presence or absence of comorbidity. The model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation caused by the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles as well as the rate of re-infection by those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection. Sensitivity analysis of the model when the population of individuals co-infected with COVID-19 and comorbidity is used as response function revealed that the top ranked parameters that drive the dynamics of the co-infection model are the effective contact rate for COVID-19 transmission, {beta}cv, the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 by comorbid susceptibles, {chi}cm, the comorbidity development rate, {theta}cm, the detection rate for singly infected and co-infected individuals, {eta}1 and {eta}2, as well as the recovery rate from COVID-19 for co-infected individuals, {phi}i2. Simulations of the model reveal that the cumulative confirmed cases (without comorbidity) may get up to 180,000 after 200 days, if the hyper susceptibility rate of comorbid susceptibles is as high as 1.2 per day. Also, the cumulative confirmed cases (including those co-infected with comorbidity) may be as high as 1000,000 cases by the end of November, 2020 if the re-infection rates for COVID-19 is 0.1 per day. It may be worse than this if the re-infection rates increase higher. Moreover, if policies are strictly put in place to step down the probability of COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles to as low as 0.4 per day and step up the detection rate for singly infected individuals to 0.7 per day, then the reproduction number can be brought very low below one, and COVID-19 infection eliminated from the population. In addition, optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model reveal that the the strategy that prevents COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles has the least ICER and is the most cost-effective of all the control strategies for the prevention of COVID-19.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher MedRxiv; WHO
    Document type Article ; Online
    Note WHO #Covidence: #20168013
    DOI 10.1101/2020.08.04.20168013
    Database COVID19

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    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

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  5. Article ; Online: Analysis of COVID-19 and comorbidity co-infection Model with Optimal Control

    Omame, Dr. Andrew / Ikenna, Nometa

    medRxiv

    Abstract: ... a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in order to assess the impacts of prior comorbidity ... Sensitivity analysis of the model when the population of individuals co-infected with COVID-19 and comorbidity is used ... to the dynamics of the diseases in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods ...

    Abstract The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is a double challenge for people infected with comorbidities such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes. Comorbidities have been reported to be risk factors for the complications of COVID-19. In this work, we develop and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in order to assess the impacts of prior comorbidity on COVID-19 complications and COVID-19 re-infection. The model is simulated using data relevant to the dynamics of the diseases in Lagos, Nigeria, making predictions for the attainment of peak periods in the presence or absence of comorbidity. The model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation caused by the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles as well as the rate of re-infection by those who have recovered from a previous COVID-19 infection. Sensitivity analysis of the model when the population of individuals co-infected with COVID-19 and comorbidity is used as response function revealed that the top ranked parameters that drive the dynamics of the co-infection model are the effective contact rate for COVID-19 transmission, $\beta\sst{cv}$, the parameter accounting for increased susceptibility to COVID-19 by comorbid susceptibles, $\chi\sst{cm}$, the comorbidity development rate, $\theta\sst{cm}$, the detection rate for singly infected and co-infected individuals, $\eta_1$ and $\eta_2$, as well as the recovery rate from COVID-19 for co-infected individuals, $\varphi\sst{i2}$. Simulations of the model reveal that the cumulative confirmed cases (without comorbidity) may get up to 180,000 after 200 days, if the hyper susceptibility rate of comorbid susceptibles is as high as 1.2 per day. Also, the cumulative confirmed cases (including those co-infected with comorbidity) may be as high as 1000,000 cases by the end of November, 2020 if the re-infection rates for COVID-19 is 0.1 per day. It may be worse than this if the re-infection rates increase higher. Moreover, if policies are strictly put in place to step down the probability of COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles to as low as 0.4 per day and step up the detection rate for singly infected individuals to 0.7 per day, then the reproduction number can be brought very low below one, and COVID-19 infection eliminated from the population. In addition, optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of the model reveal that the the strategy that prevents COVID-19 infection by comorbid susceptibles has the least ICER and is the most cost-effective of all the control strategies for the prevention of COVID-19.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-08-04
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.08.04.20168013
    Database COVID19

    Full text online

    Kategorien

    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

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