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  1. Article ; Online: Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics.

    Rader, Benjamin / Scarpino, Samuel V / Nande, Anjalika / Hill, Alison L / Adlam, Ben / Reiner, Robert C / Pigott, David M / Gutierrez, Bernardo / Zarebski, Alexander E / Shrestha, Munik / Brownstein, John S / Castro, Marcia C / Dye, Christopher / Tian, Huaiyu / Pybus, Oliver G / Kraemer, Moritz U G

    Nature medicine

    2020  Volume 26, Issue 12, Page(s) 1829–1834

    Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and ...

    Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/etiology ; China/epidemiology ; Cities/epidemiology ; Contact Tracing ; Crowding ; Demography/standards ; Demography/statistics & numerical data ; Disease Outbreaks ; Forecasting/methods ; Geography ; Human Activities/statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Physical Distancing ; Population Density ; Public Policy/trends ; SARS-CoV-2/physiology ; Travel/statistics & numerical data
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-10-05
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1220066-9
    ISSN 1546-170X ; 1078-8956
    ISSN (online) 1546-170X
    ISSN 1078-8956
    DOI 10.1038/s41591-020-1104-0
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article: Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics

    Rader, Benjamin / Scarpino, Samuel V / Nande, Anjalika / Hill, Alison L / Adlam, Ben / Reiner, Robert C / Pigott, David M / Gutierrez, Bernardo / Zarebski, Alexander E / Shrestha, Munik / Brownstein, John S / Castro, Marcia C / Dye, Christopher / Tian, Huaiyu / Pybus, Oliver G / Kraemer, Moritz U G

    Nat. med

    Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and ... heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time, and crowded cities have larger ... We paired our estimates with globally comprehensive data on human mobility and predict that crowded cities ...

    Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread1-4. During the initial phase of the outbreak, dissemination of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was primarily determined by human mobility from Wuhan, China5,6. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic transmission is lacking7. In this study, we analyzed highly resolved spatial variables in cities, together with case count data, to investigate the role of climate, urbanization and variation in interventions. We show that the degree to which cases of COVID-19 are compressed into a short period of time (peakedness of the epidemic) is strongly shaped by population aggregation and heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time, and crowded cities have larger total attack rates than less populated cities. Observed differences in the peakedness of epidemics are consistent with a meta-population model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. We paired our estimates with globally comprehensive data on human mobility and predict that crowded cities worldwide could experience more prolonged epidemics.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #834900
    Database COVID19

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  3. Article ; Online: Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics

    Rader, B / Scarpino, S V / Nande, A / Hill, A L / Adlam, B / Reiner, R C / Pigott, D M / Gutierrez, B / Zarebski, A E / Shrestha, M / Brownstein, J S / Castro, M C / Dye, C / Tian, H / Pybus, O G / Kraemer, M U G

    2020  

    Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and ... of climate, urbanization and variation in interventions. We show that the degree to which cases of COVID-19 ... by population aggregation and heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time ...

    Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread1,2,3,4. During the initial phase of the outbreak, dissemination of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was primarily determined by human mobility from Wuhan, China5,6. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic transmission is lacking7. In this study, we analyzed highly resolved spatial variables in cities, together with case count data, to investigate the role of climate, urbanization and variation in interventions. We show that the degree to which cases of COVID-19 are compressed into a short period of time (peakedness of the epidemic) is strongly shaped by population aggregation and heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time, and crowded cities have larger total attack rates than less populated cities. Observed differences in the peakedness of epidemics are consistent with a meta-population model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. We paired our estimates with globally comprehensive data on human mobility and predict that crowded cities worldwide could experience more prolonged epidemics.
    Keywords covid19
    Subject code 910
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-10-05
    Publishing country uk
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Crowding and the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 transmission

    Rader, Benjamin / Scarpino, Samuel / Nande, Anjalika / Hill, Alison / Dalziel, Benjamin / Reiner, Robert / Pigott, David / Gutierrez, Bernardo / Shrestha, Munik / Brownstein, John / Castro, Marcia / Tian, Huaiyu / Grenfell, Bryan / Pybus, Oliver / Metcalf, Jessica / Kraemer, Moritz U.G.

    medRxiv

    Abstract: ... in interventions across China. Here we show that the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 is strongly shaped by crowding ... The COVID-19 pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide and major non-pharmaceutical ... Observed differences in epidemic intensity are well captured by a metapopulation model of COVID-19 ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread. During the initial phase of the outbreak the spread was primarily determined by human mobility. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic spread is lacking. We analyse highly-resolved spatial variables for cities in China together with case count data in order to investigate the role of climate, urbanization, and variation in interventions across China. Here we show that the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 is strongly shaped by crowding, such that epidemics in dense cities are more spread out through time, and denser cities have larger total incidence. Observed differences in epidemic intensity are well captured by a metapopulation model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. Densely-populated cities worldwide may experience more prolonged epidemics. Whilst stringent interventions can shorten the time length of these local epidemics, although these may be difficult to implement in many affected settings.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-20
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.04.15.20064980
    Database COVID19

    Full text online

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    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

  5. Article ; Online: Crowding and the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 transmission

    Rader, Benjamin / Scarpino, Samuel / Nande, Anjalika / Hill, Alison / Dalziel, Benjamin / Reiner, Robert / Pigott, David / Gutierrez, Bernardo / Shrestha, Munik / Brownstein, John / Castro, Marcia / Tian, Huaiyu / Grenfell, Bryan / Pybus, Oliver / Metcalf, Jessica / Kraemer, Moritz U.G.

    Abstract: ... in interventions across China. Here we show that the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 is strongly shaped by crowding ... The COVID-19 pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide and major non-pharmaceutical ... Observed differences in epidemic intensity are well captured by a metapopulation model of COVID-19 ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread. During the initial phase of the outbreak the spread was primarily determined by human mobility. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic spread is lacking. We analyse highly-resolved spatial variables for cities in China together with case count data in order to investigate the role of climate, urbanization, and variation in interventions across China. Here we show that the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 is strongly shaped by crowding, such that epidemics in dense cities are more spread out through time, and denser cities have larger total incidence. Observed differences in epidemic intensity are well captured by a metapopulation model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. Densely-populated cities worldwide may experience more prolonged epidemics. Whilst stringent interventions can shorten the time length of these local epidemics, although these may be difficult to implement in many affected settings.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher MedRxiv; WHO
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.04.15.20064980
    Database COVID19

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    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

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