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  1. Article: Estimates of serial interval for COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Rai, Balram / Shukla, Anandi / Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant

    Clinical epidemiology and global health

    2020  Volume 9, Page(s) 157–161

    Abstract: ... review provides sufficient evidence for the estimate of serial interval of COVID-19, which can help ... on serial intervals were extracted from 11 studies following a systematic review. A meta-analysis was ... for the serial interval was 5.40 (5.19, 5.61) and 5.19 (4.37, 6.02) days by the fixed and random effects model ...

    Abstract Background: On 11
    Objective: The present study aimed at the qualitative and quantitative synthesis of the currently available evidence for the serial interval of COVID-19.
    Methodology: Data on serial intervals were extracted from 11 studies following a systematic review. A meta-analysis was performed to estimate the pooled estimate of the serial interval. The heterogeneity and bias in the included studies were tested by various statistical measures and tests, including I
    Result: The pooled estimate for the serial interval was 5.40 (5.19, 5.61) and 5.19 (4.37, 6.02) days by the fixed and random effects model, respectively. The heterogeneity between the studies was found to be 89.9% by I
    Conclusion: The present review provides sufficient evidence for the estimate of serial interval of COVID-19, which can help in understanding the epidemiology and transmission of the disease. The information on serial interval can be useful in developing various policies regarding contact tracing and monitoring community transmission of COVID-19.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-08-26
    Publishing country India
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2452-0918
    ISSN 2452-0918
    DOI 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.08.007
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article: Estimates of serial interval for COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

    Rai, Balram / Shukla, Anandi / Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant

    Abstract: ... provides sufficient evidence for the estimate of serial interval of COVID-19, which can help ... screening. A meta-analysis was performed to estimate the pooled estimate of the serial interval ... for the serial interval was 5.40 (5.19, 5.61) and 5.19 (4.37, 6.02) by the fixed and random effects model ...

    Abstract Background: On 11th March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as Pandemic. The estimation of transmission dynamics in the initial days of the outbreak of disease is crucial to control its spread in a new area. The serial interval is one of the significant epidemiological measures that determine the spread of infectious disease. It is the time interval between the onset of symptoms in the primary and secondary case. Objective: The present study aimed at the qualitative and quantitative synthesis of the currently available evidence for the serial interval of COVID-19. Methodology: Data on serial intervals were used from 11 studies by implementing inclusion and exclusion criteria after initial screening. A meta-analysis was performed to estimate the pooled estimate of the serial interval. The heterogeneity and bias in the included studies were tested by various statistical measures and tests, including I2 statistic, Cochran's Q test, Egger's test, and Beggs's test. Result: The pooled estimate for the serial interval was 5.40 (5.19, 5.61) and 5.19 (4.37, 6.02) by the fixed and random effects model, respectively. The heterogeneity between the studies was found to be 89.9% by I2 statistic. There is no potential bias introduced in the meta-analysis due to small study effects. Conclusion: The present review provides sufficient evidence for the estimate of serial interval of COVID-19, which can help in understanding the epidemiology and transmission of the disease. The serial interval can be useful for policy makers including contract tracing and monitoring community transmission of COVID-19.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #733919
    Database COVID19

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  3. Article ; Online: Estimates of serial interval for COVID-19

    Balram Rai / Anandi Shukla / Laxmi Kant Dwivedi

    Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health, Vol 9, Iss , Pp 157-

    A systematic review and meta-analysis

    2021  Volume 161

    Abstract: ... for the estimate of serial interval of COVID-19, which can help in understanding the epidemiology and transmission ... Egger's test, and Beggs's test. Result: The pooled estimate for the serial interval was 5.40 (5.19, 5.61 ... on serial intervals were extracted from 11 studies following a systematic review. A meta-analysis was ...

    Abstract Background: On 11th March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as Pandemic. The estimation of transmission dynamics in the initial days of the outbreak of any infectious disease is crucial to control its spread in a new area. The serial interval is one of the significant epidemiological measures that determine the spread of infectious disease. It is the time interval between the onset of symptoms in the primary and secondary case. Objective: The present study aimed at the qualitative and quantitative synthesis of the currently available evidence for the serial interval of COVID-19. Methodology: Data on serial intervals were extracted from 11 studies following a systematic review. A meta-analysis was performed to estimate the pooled estimate of the serial interval. The heterogeneity and bias in the included studies were tested by various statistical measures and tests, including I2 statistic, Cochran's Q test, Egger's test, and Beggs's test. Result: The pooled estimate for the serial interval was 5.40 (5.19, 5.61) and 5.19 (4.37, 6.02) days by the fixed and random effects model, respectively. The heterogeneity between the studies was found to be 89.9% by I2 statistic. There is no potential bias introduced in the meta-analysis due to small study effects. Conclusion: The present review provides sufficient evidence for the estimate of serial interval of COVID-19, which can help in understanding the epidemiology and transmission of the disease. The information on serial interval can be useful in developing various policies regarding contact tracing and monitoring community transmission of COVID-19.
    Keywords COVID-19 ; Serial interval ; Systematic review ; Meta-analysis ; Epidemiology ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Subject code 310
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Elsevier
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Estimates of serial interval for COVID-19

    Rai, Balram / Shukla, Anandi / Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant

    Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health ; ISSN 2213-3984

    A systematic review and meta-analysis

    2020  

    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier BV
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.08.007
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article ; Online: Estimating pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19: a secondary analysis using published data

    Casey, M. / Griffin, J. / McAloon, C. G. / Byrne, A. W. / Madden, J. M. / McEvoy, D. / Collins, A. B. / Hunt, K. / Barber, A. / Butler, F. / Lane, E. A. / O Brien, K. / Wall, P. / Walsh, K. A. / More, S. J.

    Abstract: ... Meta-analysis of COVID-19 incubation period and a rapid systematic review of serial interval and generation time ... the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was estimated. Results: A total of 23 estimates of serial interval ... of (1) the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19 that can occur and (2) timing ...

    Abstract Background: Understanding the extent of virus transmission that can occur before symptom onset is vital for targeting control measures against the global pandemic of COVID-19. Objective: Estimation of (1) the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19 that can occur and (2) timing of transmission relative to symptom onset. Design: Secondary analysis of published data Data sources: Meta-analysis of COVID-19 incubation period and a rapid systematic review of serial interval and generation time, which are published separately. Methods: Simulations were generated of incubation period and of serial interval or generation time. From these, transmission times relative to symptom onset were calculated and the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was estimated. Results: A total of 23 estimates of serial interval and five estimates of generation time from 17 publications were included. These came from nine different data source categories (presented here in descending order of the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission): Hong Kong, Tianjin, pooled data from Hong Kong and Shenzhen, Singapore, Mainland China excluding Hubei, mixed sources, Shenzhen, northern Italy and Wuhan. Transmission time relative to symptom onset ranged from a mean of 2.05 days before symptom onset for Hong Kong to 1.72 days after symptom onset for Wuhan. Proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission ranged from 33.7% in Wuhan to 72.7% in Hong Kong. Based on individual estimates, transmission time relative to symptom onset ranged from mean of 2.95 days before symptom onset to 1.72 days after symptom onset and proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission ranged from 33.7% to 79.9%. Simple unweighted pooling of estimates based on serial intervals resulted in a mean time of transmission of 0.67 days before symptoms, and an estimated 56.1% of transmission occurring in the pre-symptomatic period. Conclusions: Contact rates between symptomatic infectious and susceptible people are likely to influence the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission. There is substantial potential for pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19 in a range of different contexts. Our work suggests that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is most likely in the day before symptom onset whereas estimates suggesting most pre-symptomatic transmission highlighted a mean transmission times almost 3 days before symptom onset. These findings highlight the urgent need for extremely rapid and effective case detection, contact tracing and quarantine measures if strict social distancing measures are to be eased.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher MedRxiv; WHO
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.05.08.20094870
    Database COVID19

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  6. Article ; Online: Estimating pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19: a secondary analysis using published data

    Casey, Miriam / Griffin, John / McAloon, Conor G / Byrne, Andrew W / Madden, Jamie M / McEvoy, David / Collins, Aine B / Hunt, Kevin / Barber, Ann / Butler, Francis / Lane, Elizabeth A / O Brien, Kirsty / Wall, Patrick / Walsh, Kieran A / More, Simon J

    medRxiv

    Abstract: ... Meta-analysis of COVID-19 incubation period and a rapid systematic review of serial interval and generation time ... the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was estimated. Results: A total of 23 estimates of serial interval ... of (1) the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19 that can occur and (2) timing ...

    Abstract Background: Understanding the extent of virus transmission that can occur before symptom onset is vital for targeting control measures against the global pandemic of COVID-19. Objective: Estimation of (1) the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19 that can occur and (2) timing of transmission relative to symptom onset. Design: Secondary analysis of published data Data sources: Meta-analysis of COVID-19 incubation period and a rapid systematic review of serial interval and generation time, which are published separately. Methods: Simulations were generated of incubation period and of serial interval or generation time. From these, transmission times relative to symptom onset were calculated and the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was estimated. Results: A total of 23 estimates of serial interval and five estimates of generation time from 17 publications were included. These came from nine different data source categories (presented here in descending order of the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission): Hong Kong, Tianjin, pooled data from Hong Kong and Shenzhen, Singapore, Mainland China excluding Hubei, mixed sources, Shenzhen, northern Italy and Wuhan. Transmission time relative to symptom onset ranged from a mean of 2.05 days before symptom onset for Hong Kong to 1.72 days after symptom onset for Wuhan. Proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission ranged from 33.7% in Wuhan to 72.7% in Hong Kong. Based on individual estimates, transmission time relative to symptom onset ranged from mean of 2.95 days before symptom onset to 1.72 days after symptom onset and proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission ranged from 33.7% to 79.9%. Simple unweighted pooling of estimates based on serial intervals resulted in a mean time of transmission of 0.67 days before symptoms, and an estimated 56.1% of transmission occurring in the pre-symptomatic period. Conclusions: Contact rates between symptomatic infectious and susceptible people are likely to influence the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission. There is substantial potential for pre-symptomatic transmission of COVID-19 in a range of different contexts. Our work suggests that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is most likely in the day before symptom onset whereas estimates suggesting most pre-symptomatic transmission highlighted a mean transmission times almost 3 days before symptom onset. These findings highlight the urgent need for extremely rapid and effective case detection, contact tracing and quarantine measures if strict social distancing measures are to be eased.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-11
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.05.08.20094870
    Database COVID19

    Full text online

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