Article ; Online: Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States.
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
2020 Volume 72, Issue 4, Page(s) 643–651
Abstract: ... spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States remain unknown.: Methods: We obtained county-based ... counts of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the United States from 22 January to 13 May 2020 (N = 1 386 050 ... Spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of COVID-19 should be considered in decision making on the timeline ...
| Abstract | Background: A range of near-real-time online/mobile mapping dashboards and applications have been used to track the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic worldwide; however, small area-based spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States remain unknown. Methods: We obtained county-based counts of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the United States from 22 January to 13 May 2020 (N = 1 386 050). We characterized the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic through detecting weekly hotspots of newly confirmed cases using Spatial and Space-Time Scan Statistics and quantifying the trends of incidence of COVID-19 by county characteristics using the Joinpoint analysis. Results: Along with the national plateau reached in early April, COVID-19 incidence significantly decreased in the Northeast (estimated weekly percentage change [EWPC]: -16.6%) but continued increasing in the Midwest, South, and West (EWPCs: 13.2%, 5.6%, and 5.7%, respectively). Higher risks of clustering and incidence of COVID-19 were consistently observed in metropolitan versus rural counties, counties closest to core airports, the most populous counties, and counties with the highest proportion of racial/ethnic minorities. However, geographic differences in incidence have shrunk since early April, driven by a significant decrease in the incidence in these counties (EWPC range: -2.0%, -4.2%) and a consistent increase in other areas (EWPC range: 1.5-20.3%). Conclusions: To substantially decrease the nationwide incidence of COVID-19, strict social-distancing measures should be continuously implemented, especially in geographic areas with increasing risks, including rural areas. Spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of COVID-19 should be considered in decision making on the timeline of re-opening for states and localities. |
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| MeSH term(s) | COVID-19 ; Humans ; Incidence ; Pandemics ; Rural Population ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States/epidemiology |
| Keywords | covid19 |
| Language | English |
| Publishing date | 2020-08-12 |
| Publishing country | United States |
| Document type | Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural |
| ZDB-ID | 1099781-7 |
| ISSN | 1537-6591 ; 1058-4838 |
| ISSN (online) | 1537-6591 |
| ISSN | 1058-4838 |
| DOI | 10.1093/cid/ciaa934 |
| Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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