Article: A Brief Theory of Epidemic Kinetics.
2020 Volume 9, Issue 6
Abstract: In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, and on the basis of the Theory of Dynamical Systems, we propose a simple theoretical approach for the expansion of contagious diseases, with a particular focus on viral respiratory tracts. The infection develops ... ...
Abstract | In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, and on the basis of the Theory of Dynamical Systems, we propose a simple theoretical approach for the expansion of contagious diseases, with a particular focus on viral respiratory tracts. The infection develops through contacts between contagious and exposed people, with a rate proportional to the number of contagious and of non-immune individuals, to contact duration and turnover, inversely proportional to the efficiency of protection measures, and balanced by the average individual recovery response. The obvious initial exponential increase is readily hindered by the growing recovery rate, and also by the size reduction of the exposed population. The system converges towards a stable attractor whose value is expressed in terms of the "reproductive rate" |
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Keywords | covid19 |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2020-06-22 |
Publishing country | Switzerland |
Document type | Journal Article |
ZDB-ID | 2661517-4 |
ISSN | 2079-7737 |
ISSN | 2079-7737 |
DOI | 10.3390/biology9060134 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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