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  1. Book ; Online: Sequential Planning in Large Partially Observable Environments guided by LLMs

    Paul, Swarna Kamal

    2023  

    Abstract: Sequential planning in large state space and action space quickly becomes intractable due to combinatorial explosion of the search space. Heuristic methods, like monte-carlo tree search, though effective for large state space, but struggle if action ... ...

    Abstract Sequential planning in large state space and action space quickly becomes intractable due to combinatorial explosion of the search space. Heuristic methods, like monte-carlo tree search, though effective for large state space, but struggle if action space is large. Pure reinforcement learning methods, relying only on reward signals, needs prohibitively large interactions with the environment to device a viable plan. If the state space, observations and actions can be represented in natural language then Large Language models (LLM) can be used to generate action plans. Recently several such goal-directed agents like Reflexion, CLIN, SayCan were able to surpass the performance of other state-of-the-art methods with minimum or no task specific training. But they still struggle with exploration and get stuck in local optima. Their planning capabilities are limited by the limited reasoning capability of the foundational LLMs on text data. We propose a hybrid agent "neoplanner", that synergizes both state space search with queries to foundational LLM to get the best action plan. The reward signals are quantitatively used to drive the search. A balance of exploration and exploitation is maintained by maximizing upper confidence bounds of values of states. In places where random exploration is needed, the LLM is queried to generate an action plan. Learnings from each trial are stored as entity relationships in text format. Those are used in future queries to the LLM for continual improvement. Experiments in the Scienceworld environment reveals a 124% improvement from the current best method in terms of average reward gained across multiple tasks.

    Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 1 table
    Keywords Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science - Robotics
    Subject code 004
    Publishing date 2023-12-12
    Publishing country us
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: Explaining Causal Influence of External Factors on Incidence Rate of Covid-19.

    Paul, Swarna Kamal / Jana, Saikat / Bhaumik, Parama

    SN computer science

    2021  Volume 2, Issue 6, Page(s) 465

    Abstract: Classical susceptible-infected-removed model with constant transmission rate and removal rate may not capture real world dynamics of epidemic due to complex influence of multiple external factors on the spread and spatio-temporal variation of ... ...

    Abstract Classical susceptible-infected-removed model with constant transmission rate and removal rate may not capture real world dynamics of epidemic due to complex influence of multiple external factors on the spread and spatio-temporal variation of transmission rate. Also, explainability of a model is of prime necessity to understand the influence of multiple factors on transmission rate. Thus, we modified discrete global susceptible-infected-removed model with time-varying transmission rate, recovery rate and multiple spatially local models. We have derived the criteria for disease-free equilibrium within a specific time period. A convolutional LSTM model is created and trained to map multiple spatiotemporal features to transmission rate. The model achieved 8.39% mean absolute percent error in terms of cumulative infection cases in each locality in a region in USA for a 10-day prediction period. Comparison with current state of the art methods reveals performance superiority of the proposed method. A perturbation-based spatio-temporal model interpretation method is proposed which generates spatio-temporal local interpretations. Global interpretations are generated by statistically accumulating the local interpretations. Global interpretations of transmission rate for a region in USA shows consistent positive influence of population density, whereas, temperature and humidity have very minor influence. An experiment with what-if scenario reveals locality specific quick identification of positive cases, rapid isolation and improving healthcare facilities are keys to rapid convergence to disease-free equilibrium. A long-term forecasting of 160 days predicts new infection cases in a region in USA with a median error of 455 cases.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-09-18
    Publishing country Singapore
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2661-8907
    ISSN (online) 2661-8907
    DOI 10.1007/s42979-021-00864-6
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: A multivariate spatiotemporal spread model of COVID-19 using ensemble of ConvLSTM networks

    paul, swarna kamal / Jana, Saikat / Bhaumik, Parama

    Abstract: The high R-naught factor of SARS-CoV-2 has created a race against time for mankind and it necessitates rapid containment actions to control the spread. In such scenario short term accurate spatiotemporal predictions can help understanding the dynamics of ...

    Abstract The high R-naught factor of SARS-CoV-2 has created a race against time for mankind and it necessitates rapid containment actions to control the spread. In such scenario short term accurate spatiotemporal predictions can help understanding the dynamics of the spread in a geographic region and identify hotspots. We propose an ensemble of convolutional LSTM based spatiotemporal model to forecast spread of the epidemic with high resolution and accuracy in a large geographic region. A data preparation method is proposed to convert spatial causal features into set of 2D images with or without temporal component. The model has been trained with available data for USA and Italy. It achieved 5.57% and 0.3% mean absolute percent error for total number of predicted infection cases in a 5day prediction period for USA and Italy respectively.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher MedRxiv; WHO
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.04.17.20069898
    Database COVID19

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  4. Article ; Online: A Multivariate Spatiotemporal Model of COVID-19 Epidemic Using Ensemble of ConvLSTM Networks

    Paul, Swarna Kamal / Jana, Saikat / Bhaumik, Parama

    J

    Abstract: The high R-naught factor of SARS-CoV-2 has created a race against time for mankind, and it necessitates rapid containment actions to control the spread. In such scenario short-term accurate spatiotemporal predictions can help understanding the dynamics ... ...

    Abstract The high R-naught factor of SARS-CoV-2 has created a race against time for mankind, and it necessitates rapid containment actions to control the spread. In such scenario short-term accurate spatiotemporal predictions can help understanding the dynamics of the spread in a geographic region and identify hotspots. However, due to the novelty of the disease there is very little disease-specific data generated yet. This poses a difficult problem for machine learning methods to learn a model of the epidemic spread from data. A proposed ensemble of convolutional LSTM-based spatiotemporal model can forecast the spread of the epidemic with high resolution and accuracy in a large geographic region. The feature construction method creates geospatial frames of features with or without temporal component based on latitudes and longitudes thus avoiding the need of location specific adjacency matrix. The model has been trained with available data for USA and Italy. It achieved 5.57% and 0.3% mean absolute percent error for total number of predicted infection cases in a 5-day prediction period for USA and Italy, respectively.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher PMC
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1007/s40031-020-00517-x
    Database COVID19

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  5. Article ; Online: On nonlinear incidence rate of Covid-19

    Paul, Swarna Kamal / Jana, Saikat / Bhaumik, Parama

    medRxiv

    Abstract: Classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed model with constant transmission rate and removal rate may not capture real world dynamics of epidemic due to complex influence of multiple external factors on the spread. On top of that transmission rate may vary ... ...

    Abstract Classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed model with constant transmission rate and removal rate may not capture real world dynamics of epidemic due to complex influence of multiple external factors on the spread. On top of that transmission rate may vary widely in a large region due to non-stationarity of spatial features which poses difficulty in creating a global model. We modified discrete global Susceptible-Infected-Removed model by using time varying transmission rate, recovery rate and multiple spatially local models. No specific functional form of transmission rate has been assumed. We have derived the criteria for disease-free equilibrium within a specific time period. A single Convolutional LSTM model is created and trained to map multiple spatiotemporal features to transmission rate. The model achieved 8.39% mean absolute percent error in terms of cumulative infection cases in each locality in a 10-day prediction period. Local interpretations of the model using perturbation method reveals local influence of different features on transmission rate which in turn is used to generate a set of generalized global interpretations. A what-if scenario with modified recovery rate illustrates rapid dampening of the spread when forecasted with the trained model. A comparative study with current normal scenario reveals key necessary steps to reach baseline.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-10-21
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.10.19.20215665
    Database COVID19

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  6. Article ; Online: Goat lung surfactant for treatment of respiratory distress syndrome among preterm neonates: a multi-site randomized non-inferiority trial.

    Jain, Kajal / Nangia, Sushma / Ballambattu, Vishnu Bhat / Sundaram, Venkataseshan / Sankar, M Jeeva / Ramji, Siddharth / Vishnubhatla, Sreenivas / Thukral, Anu / Gupta, Yogendra Kumar / Plakkal, Nishad / Sundaram, Mangalabharathi / Jajoo, Mamta / Kumar, Praveen / Jayaraman, Kumutha / Jain, Ashish / Saili, Arvind / Murugesan, Anitha / Chawla, Deepak / Murki, Srinivas /
    Nanavati, Ruchi / Rao, Suman / Vaidya, Umesh / Mehta, Ashish / Arora, Kamal / Mondkar, Jayashree / Arya, Sugandha / Bahl, Monika / Utture, Alpana / Manerkar, Swati / Bhat, Swarna Rekha / Parikh, Tushar / Kumar, Manish / Bajpai, Anurag / Sivanandan, Sindhu / Dhawan, Pawandeep Kaur / Vishwakarma, Gayatri / Bangera, Sudhakar / Kumar, Sumit / Gopalakrishnan, Shridhar / Jindal, Atul / Natarajan, Chandra Kumar / Saini, Anumeet / Karunanidhi, Sukanya / Malik, Meenakshi / Narang, Parul / Kaur, Gurkirat / Yadav, Chander Prakash / Deorari, Ashok / Paul, Vinod K / Agarwal, Ramesh

    Journal of perinatology : official journal of the California Perinatal Association

    2019  Volume 39, Issue Suppl 1, Page(s) 3–12

    Abstract: Objective: To investigate the safety and efficacy of goat lung surfactant extract (GLSE) compared with bovine surfactant extract (beractant; Survanta®, AbbVie, USA) for the treatment of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (RDS).: Study design: We ... ...

    Abstract Objective: To investigate the safety and efficacy of goat lung surfactant extract (GLSE) compared with bovine surfactant extract (beractant; Survanta®, AbbVie, USA) for the treatment of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (RDS).
    Study design: We conducted a double-blind, non-inferiority, randomized trial in seven Indian centers between June 22, 2016 and January 11, 2018. Preterm neonates of 26 to 32 weeks gestation with clinical diagnosis of RDS were randomized to receive either GLSE or beractant. Repeat dose, if required, was open-label beractant in both the groups. The primary outcome was a composite of death or bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) at 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA). Interim analyses were done by an independent data and safety monitoring board (DSMB).
    Result: After the first interim analyses on 5% enrolment, the "need for repeat dose(s) of surfactant" was added as an additional primary outcome and enrolment restricted to intramural births at five of the seven participating centers. Following second interim analysis after 98 (10% of 900 planned) neonates were enroled, DSMB recommended closure of study in view of inferior efficacy of GLSE in comparison to beractant. There was no significant difference in the primary outcome of death or BPD between GLSE group (n = 52) and beractant group (n = 46) (50.0 vs. 39.1%; OR 1.5; 95% CI 0.7-3.5; p = 0.28). The need for repeat dose of surfactant was significantly higher in GLSE group (65.4 vs. 17.4%; OR 9.0; 95% CI 3.5-23.3; p < 0.001).
    Conclusions: Goat lung surfactant was less efficacious than beractant (Survanta®) for treatment of RDS in preterm infants. Reasons to ascertain inferior efficacy of goat lung surfactant requires investigation and possible mitigating strategies in order to develop a low-cost and effective surfactant.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Area Under Curve ; Biological Products/therapeutic use ; Cattle ; Double-Blind Method ; Female ; Goats ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Infant, Premature/blood ; Male ; Oxygen/blood ; Pulmonary Surfactants/therapeutic use ; Respiratory Distress Syndrome, Newborn/drug therapy ; Treatment Outcome
    Chemical Substances Biological Products ; Pulmonary Surfactants ; goat lung surfactant extract ; beractant (S866O45PIG) ; Oxygen (S88TT14065)
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-08-31
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Clinical Trial, Phase II ; Clinical Trial, Phase III ; Comparative Study ; Equivalence Trial ; Journal Article ; Multicenter Study ; Randomized Controlled Trial ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 645021-0
    ISSN 1476-5543 ; 0743-8346
    ISSN (online) 1476-5543
    ISSN 0743-8346
    DOI 10.1038/s41372-019-0472-0
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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