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Article ; Online: A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions.

Rainisch, Gabriel / Undurraga, Eduardo A / Chowell, Gerardo

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases

2020 Volume 96, Page(s) 376–383

Abstract: Objectives: Public health officials need tools to assist in anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We constructed a modeling tool to aid active public health officials to estimate healthcare demand from the ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: Public health officials need tools to assist in anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We constructed a modeling tool to aid active public health officials to estimate healthcare demand from the pandemic in their jurisdictions and to evaluate the potential impact of population-wide social-distancing interventions. Methods: The tool uses an SEIR compartmental model to project the pandemic's local spread. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies to evaluate. Outputs include the number of infections and deaths with and without intervention, and the demand for hospital and critical care beds and ventilators relative to existing capacity. We illustrate the tool using data from three regions of Chile. Results: Our scenarios indicate a surge in COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Chilean hospitals by June, peaking in July or August at six to 50 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of individuals >70 years, and telework interventions may keep treatment demand below capacity. Conclusions: Aggressive interventions can avert substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Our tool permits rapid evaluation of locally-applicable policy scenarios and updating of results as new data become available.
MeSH term(s)	Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections/therapy ; Delivery of Health Care ; Health Resources ; Humans ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/therapy ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Ventilators, Mechanical
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-05-16
Publishing country	Canada
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1331197-9
ISSN	1878-3511 ; 1201-9712
ISSN (online)	1878-3511
ISSN	1201-9712
DOI	10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.043
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Article ; Online: Adapting COVID-19 Contact Tracing Protocols to Accommodate Resource Constraints, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, 2021.

Jeon, Seonghye / Watson-Lewis, Lydia / Rainisch, Gabriel / Chiu, Chu-Chuan / Castonguay, François M / Fischer, Leah S / Moonan, Patrick K / Oeltmann, John E / Adhikari, Bishwa B / Lawman, Hannah / Meltzer, Martin I

Emerging infectious diseases

2024 Volume 30, Issue 2, Page(s) 333–336

Abstract: Because of constrained personnel time, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health (Philadelphia, PA, USA) adjusted its COVID-19 contact tracing protocol in summer 2021 by prioritizing recent cases and limiting staff time per case. This action reduced ... ...

Abstract	Because of constrained personnel time, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health (Philadelphia, PA, USA) adjusted its COVID-19 contact tracing protocol in summer 2021 by prioritizing recent cases and limiting staff time per case. This action reduced required staff hours to prevent each case from 21-30 to 8-11 hours, while maintaining program effectiveness.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Contact Tracing/methods ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Philadelphia/epidemiology ; Public Health
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-05
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1380686-5
ISSN	1080-6059 ; 1080-6040
ISSN (online)	1080-6059
ISSN	1080-6040
DOI	10.3201/eid3002.230988
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions

Gabriel Rainisch / Eduardo A. Undurraga / Gerardo Chowell

International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol 96, Iss , Pp 376-

2020 Volume 383

Abstract	Objectives: Public health officials need tools to assist in anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We constructed a modeling tool to aid active public health officials to estimate healthcare demand from the pandemic in their jurisdictions and to evaluate the potential impact of population-wide social-distancing interventions. Methods: The tool uses an SEIR compartmental model to project the pandemic’s local spread. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies to evaluate. Outputs include the number of infections and deaths with and without intervention, and the demand for hospital and critical care beds and ventilators relative to existing capacity. We illustrate the tool using data from three regions of Chile. Results: Our scenarios indicate a surge in COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Chilean hospitals by June, peaking in July or August at six to 50 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of individuals >70 years, and telework interventions may keep treatment demand below capacity. Conclusions: Aggressive interventions can avert substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Our tool permits rapid evaluation of locally-applicable policy scenarios and updating of results as new data become available.
Keywords	Model ; COVID ; Hospital ; Capacity ; Intervention ; Social distancing ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216 ; covid19
Subject code	360
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-07-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions

Rainisch, Gabriel / Undurraga, Eduardo A. / Chowell, Gerardo

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

2020 Volume 96, Page(s) 376–383

Keywords	Microbiology (medical) ; Infectious Diseases ; General Medicine ; covid19
Language	English
Publisher	Elsevier BV
Publishing country	us
Document type	Article ; Online
ZDB-ID	1331197-9
ISSN	1878-3511 ; 1201-9712
ISSN (online)	1878-3511
ISSN	1201-9712
DOI	10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.043
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Estimated Cases Averted by COVID-19 Digital Exposure Notification, Pennsylvania, USA, November 8, 2020-January 2, 2021.

Jeon, Seonghye / Rainisch, Gabriel / Harris, A-Mac / Shinabery, Jared / Iqbal, Muneeza / Pallavaram, Amar / Hilton, Stacy / Karki, Saugat / Moonan, Patrick K / Oeltmann, John E / Meltzer, Martin I

Emerging infectious diseases

2023 Volume 29, Issue 2, Page(s) 426–430

Abstract: We combined field-based data with mathematical modeling to estimate the effectiveness of smartphone-enabled COVID-19 exposure notification in Pennsylvania, USA. We estimated that digital notifications potentially averted 7-69 cases/1,000 notifications ... ...

Abstract	We combined field-based data with mathematical modeling to estimate the effectiveness of smartphone-enabled COVID-19 exposure notification in Pennsylvania, USA. We estimated that digital notifications potentially averted 7-69 cases/1,000 notifications during November 8, 2020-January 2, 2021. Greater use and increased compliance could increase the effectiveness of digital notifications.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Disease Notification ; Pennsylvania/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-13
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1380686-5
ISSN	1080-6059 ; 1080-6040
ISSN (online)	1080-6059
ISSN	1080-6040
DOI	10.3201/eid2902.220959
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Estimating the impact of multiple immunization products on medically-attended respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in infants.

Rainisch, Gabriel / Adhikari, Bishwa / Meltzer, Martin I / Langley, Gayle

Vaccine

2019 Volume 38, Issue 2, Page(s) 251–257

Abstract: Background: Palivizumab, a monoclonal antibody and the only licensed immunization product for preventing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, is recommended for children with certain high-risk conditions. Other antibody products and maternal ... ...

Abstract	Background: Palivizumab, a monoclonal antibody and the only licensed immunization product for preventing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, is recommended for children with certain high-risk conditions. Other antibody products and maternal vaccines targeting young infants are in clinical development. Few studies have compared products closest to potential licensure and have primarily focused on the effects on hospitalizations only. Estimates of the impact of these products on medically-attended (MA) infections in a variety of healthcare settings are needed to assist with developing RSV immunization recommendations. Methods: We developed a tool for practicing public health officials to estimate the impact of immunization strategies on RSV-associated MA lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in various healthcare settings among infants <12 months. Users input RSV burden and seasonality and examine the influence of altering product efficacy and uptake assumptions. We used the tool to evaluate candidate products' impacts among a US birth cohort. Results: We estimated without immunization, 407,360 (range: 339,650-475,980) LRTIs are attended annually in outpatient clinics, 147,240 (126,070-168,510) in emergency departments (EDs), and 33,180 (24,760-42,900) in hospitals. A passive antibody candidate targeting all infants prevented the most LRTIs: 196,470 (48% of visits without immunization) outpatient clinic visits (range: 163,810-229,650), 75,250 (51%) EDs visits (64,430-86,090), and 18,140 (55%) hospitalizations (13,770-23,160). A strategy combining maternal vaccine candidate and palivizumab prevented 58,210 (14% of visits without immunization) LRTIs in outpatient clinics (range: 48,520-67,970), 19,580 (13%) in EDs (16,760-22,400), and 8,190 (25%) hospitalizations (6,390-10,150). Conclusions: Results underscore the potential for anticipated products to reduce serious RSV illness. Our tool (provided to readers) can be used by different jurisdictions and accept updated data. Results can aid economic evaluations and public health decision-making regarding RSV immunization products.
MeSH term(s)	Antiviral Agents/administration & dosage ; Antiviral Agents/immunology ; Female ; Humans ; Immunization/methods ; Infant ; Palivizumab/administration & dosage ; Palivizumab/immunology ; Pregnancy ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/immunology ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/prevention & control ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines/administration & dosage ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines/immunology ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human/immunology
Chemical Substances	Antiviral Agents ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines ; Palivizumab (DQ448MW7KS)
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-11-16
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Comparative Study ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	605674-x
ISSN	1873-2518 ; 0264-410X
ISSN (online)	1873-2518
ISSN	0264-410X
DOI	10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.10.023
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Article: A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions

Rainisch, Gabriel / Undurraga, Eduardo A / Chowell, Gerardo

Int J Infect Dis

Abstract: OBJECTIVES: Public health officials need tools to assist in anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We constructed a modeling tool to aid active public health officials to estimate healthcare demand from the ... ...

Abstract	OBJECTIVES: Public health officials need tools to assist in anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We constructed a modeling tool to aid active public health officials to estimate healthcare demand from the pandemic in their jurisdictions and to evaluate the potential impact of population-wide social-distancing interventions. METHODS: The tool uses an SEIR compartmental model to project the pandemic's local spread. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies to evaluate. Outputs include the number of infections and deaths with and without intervention, and the demand for hospital and critical care beds and ventilators relative to existing capacity. We illustrate the tool using data from three regions of Chile. RESULTS: Our scenarios indicate a surge in COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Chilean hospitals by June, peaking in July or August at six to 50 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of individuals >70 years, and telework interventions may keep treatment demand below capacity. CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive interventions can avert substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Our tool permits rapid evaluation of locally-applicable policy scenarios and updating of results as new data become available.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	WHO
Document type	Article
Note	WHO #Covidence: #276348
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions

Rainisch, Gabriel / Undurraga Fourcade, Eduardo Andrés / Chowell, Gerardo

2020

Abstract	Objectives: Public health officials need tools to assist in anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We constructed a modeling tool to aid active public health officials to estimate healthcare demand from the pandemic in their jurisdictions and to evaluate the potential impact of population-wide social-distancing interventions. Methods: The tool uses an SEIR compartmental model to project the pandemic’s local spread. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies to evaluate. Outputs include the number of infections and deaths with and without intervention, and the demand for hospital and critical care beds and ventilators relative to existing capacity. We illustrate the tool using data from three regions of Chile. Results: Our scenarios indicate a surge in COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Chilean hospitals by June, peaking in July or August at six to 50 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of individuals >70 years, and telework interventions may keep treatment demand below capacity. Conclusions: Aggressive interventions can avert substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Our tool permits rapid evaluation of locally-applicable policy scenarios and updating of results as new data become available.
Keywords	COVID-19 ; Hospital ; Capacity ; Intervention ; Social distancing ; 610 ; Medicina y salud ; covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-07-03T20:50:27Z
Publishing country	cl
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Book ; Online: A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions

Rainisch, Gabriel / Undurraga, Eduardo A. / Chowell, Gerardo

2020

Abstract: Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare demand from ... ...

Abstract	Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare demand from the pandemic in their jurisdictions and to evaluate the potential impacts of population-wide social-distancing interventions. Methods. The tool uses a SEIR compartmental model to project the local spread of the pandemic. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies to evaluate. Outputs include the number of infections and deaths with and without intervention, and the demand for hospital and critical care beds and ventilators relative to existing capacity. We illustrate the tool using data from three regions of Chile. Results. Our scenarios indicate a surge in COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Chilean hospitals by June, peaking in July or August at 6 to 50 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of individuals greater than 70 years, and telework interventions may keep treatment demand below capacity. Conclusions. Aggressive interventions can avert substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Our tool permits rapid evaluation of locally-applicable policy scenarios and updating of results as new data become available. Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures. The model is available for download in English and Spanish versions. The English version is available at https://publichealth.gsu.edu/files/2020/04/Supplementary-Material-S1_Model-v1.0.xlsx The Spanish version is available at https://publichealth.gsu.edu/files/2020/05/SupplMatS1_Model_Espanol_v1.0.xlsx
Keywords	Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution ; covid19
Subject code	360
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-04-28
Publishing country	us
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Building a Simple Model to Assess the Impact of Case Investigation and Contact Tracing for Sexually Transmitted Diseases: Lessons From COVID-19.

Castonguay, François M / Chesson, Harrell W / Jeon, Seonghye / Rainisch, Gabriel / Fischer, Leah S / Adhikari, Biswha B / Kahn, Emily B / Greening, Bradford / Gift, Thomas L / Meltzer, Martin I

AJPM focus

2023 Volume 3, Issue 1, Page(s) 100147

Abstract: Introduction: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed a simple spreadsheet-based tool to help state and local public health officials assess the performance and impact of COVID-19 case investigation ... ...

Abstract	Introduction: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed a simple spreadsheet-based tool to help state and local public health officials assess the performance and impact of COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing in their jurisdiction. The applicability and feasibility of building such a tool for sexually transmitted diseases were assessed. Methods: The key epidemiologic differences between sexually transmitted diseases and respiratory diseases (e.g., mixing patterns, incubation period, duration of infection, and the availability of treatment) were identified, and their implications for modeling case investigation and contact tracing impact with a simple spreadsheet tool were remarked on. Existing features of the COVID-19 tool that are applicable for evaluating the impact of case investigation and contact tracing for sexually transmitted diseases were also identified. Results: Our findings offer recommendations for the future development of a spreadsheet-based modeling tool for evaluating the impact of sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing efforts. Generally, we advocate for simplifying sexually transmitted disease-specific complexities and performing sensitivity analyses to assess uncertainty. The authors also acknowledge that more complex modeling approaches might be required but note that it is possible that a sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing tool could incorporate features from more complex models while maintaining a user-friendly interface. Conclusions: A sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing tool could benefit from the incorporation of key features of the COVID-19 model, namely its user-friendly interface. The inherent differences between sexually transmitted diseases and respiratory viruses should not be seen as a limitation to the development of such tool.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-09-25
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2773-0654
ISSN (online)	2773-0654
DOI	10.1016/j.focus.2023.100147
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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