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Book: Bayesian approaches to clinical trials and health care evaluation

Spiegelhalter, David J. / Abrams, Keith R. / Myles, Jonathan P.

(Statistics in practice)

2006

Title variant	Bayesian approaches to clinical trials and health-care evaluation
Series title	Statistics in practice
Keywords	Clinical Trials / methods ; Technology Assessment, Biomedical ; Bayes Theorem ; Decision Support Techniques ; Klinisches Experiment ; Bayes-Verfahren ; Gesundheitswesen ; Evaluation
Subject	Bayessches Vorgehen ; Bayes-Analyse ; Bayes-Methode ; Bayessche statistische Verfahren ; Bayessche Analyse ; Bayesianisches Verfahren ; Bayes-Statistik ; Bayes-Inferenz ; Evaluierung ; Gesundheitsdienst ; Gesundheitssystem ; Gesundheitswirtschaft ; Medizinalwesen ; Medizinalsystem ; Therapiestudie ; Klinische Studie ; Klinischer Versuch ; Klinische Forschung
Language	English
Size	XIV, 391 S. : Ill., graph. Darst.
Edition	Reprint
Publisher	Wiley
Publishing place	Chichester u.a.
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Book
HBZ-ID	HT014789541
ISBN	0-471-49975-7 ; 978-0-471-49975-6
Database	Catalogue ZB MED Medicine, Health

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Article ; Online: Statistics. The future lies in uncertainty.

Spiegelhalter, D J

Science (New York, N.Y.)

2014 Volume 345, Issue 6194, Page(s) 264–265

MeSH term(s)	Forecasting ; Humans ; Knowledge Bases ; Uncertainty
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-07-18
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	128410-1
ISSN	1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
ISSN (online)	1095-9203
ISSN	0036-8075
DOI	10.1126/science.1251122
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Article ; Online: The power of the MicroMort.

Spiegelhalter, D J

BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology

2014 Volume 121, Issue 6, Page(s) 662–663

MeSH term(s)	Female ; Humans ; Infant Mortality ; Male ; Maternal Mortality ; Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data ; Pregnancy ; Risk Reduction Behavior ; Stillbirth
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-05
Publishing country	England
Document type	Comment ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2000931-8
ISSN	1471-0528 ; 0306-5456 ; 1470-0328
ISSN (online)	1471-0528
ISSN	0306-5456 ; 1470-0328
DOI	10.1111/1471-0528.12663
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Article ; Online: How well did experts and laypeople forecast the size of the COVID-19 pandemic?

Recchia, Gabriel / Freeman, Alexandra L J / Spiegelhalter, David

PloS one

2021 Volume 16, Issue 5, Page(s) e0250935

Abstract: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, social and traditional media have disseminated predictions from experts and nonexperts about its expected magnitude. How accurate were the predictions of 'experts'-individuals holding occupations or roles in subject- ... ...

Abstract	Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, social and traditional media have disseminated predictions from experts and nonexperts about its expected magnitude. How accurate were the predictions of 'experts'-individuals holding occupations or roles in subject-relevant fields, such as epidemiologists and statisticians-compared with those of the public? We conducted a survey in April 2020 of 140 UK experts and 2,086 UK laypersons; all were asked to make four quantitative predictions about the impact of COVID-19 by 31 Dec 2020. In addition to soliciting point estimates, we asked participants for lower and higher bounds of a range that they felt had a 75% chance of containing the true answer. Experts exhibited greater accuracy and calibration than laypersons, even when restricting the comparison to a subset of laypersons who scored in the top quartile on a numeracy test. Even so, experts substantially underestimated the ultimate extent of the pandemic, and the mean number of predictions for which the expert intervals contained the actual outcome was only 1.8 (out of 4), suggesting that experts should consider broadening the range of scenarios they consider plausible. Predictions of the public were even more inaccurate and poorly calibrated, suggesting that an important role remains for expert predictions as long as experts acknowledge their uncertainty.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/pathology ; COVID-19/virology ; Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Male ; Mass Media ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Uncertainty ; United Kingdom/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-05
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0250935
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Redevelopment of the Predict: Breast Cancer website and recommendations for developing interfaces to support decision-making.

Farmer, George D / Pearson, Mike / Skylark, William J / Freeman, Alexandra L J / Spiegelhalter, David J

Cancer medicine

2021 Volume 10, Issue 15, Page(s) 5141–5153

Abstract: Objectives: To develop a new interface for the widely used prognostic breast cancer tool: Predict: Breast Cancer. To facilitate decision-making around post-surgery breast cancer treatments. To derive recommendations for communicating the outputs of ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: To develop a new interface for the widely used prognostic breast cancer tool: Predict: Breast Cancer. To facilitate decision-making around post-surgery breast cancer treatments. To derive recommendations for communicating the outputs of prognostic models to patients and their clinicians. Method: We employed a user-centred design process comprised of background research and iterative testing of prototypes with clinicians and patients. Methods included surveys, focus groups and usability testing. Results: The updated interface now caters to the needs of a wider audience through the addition of new visualisations, instantaneous updating of results, enhanced explanatory information and the addition of new predictors and outputs. A programme of future research was identified and is now underway, including the provision of quantitative data on the adverse effects of adjuvant breast cancer treatments. Based on our user-centred design process, we identify six recommendations for communicating the outputs of prognostic models including the need to contextualise statistics, identify and address gaps in knowledge, and the critical importance of engaging with prospective users when designing communications. Conclusions: For prognostic algorithms to fulfil their potential to assist with decision-making they need carefully designed interfaces. User-centred design puts patients and clinicians needs at the forefront, allowing them to derive the maximum benefit from prognostic models.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Breast Neoplasms/surgery ; Breast Neoplasms/therapy ; Clinical Decision-Making ; Computer Graphics ; Disease Management ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Humans ; Internet-Based Intervention ; Postoperative Care ; Prognosis ; Risk Assessment ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; User-Centered Design ; User-Computer Interface
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-06-21
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2659751-2
ISSN	2045-7634 ; 2045-7634
ISSN (online)	2045-7634
ISSN	2045-7634
DOI	10.1002/cam4.4072
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: The effects of quality of evidence communication on perception of public health information about COVID-19: Two randomised controlled trials.

Schneider, Claudia R / Freeman, Alexandra L J / Spiegelhalter, David / van der Linden, Sander

PloS one

2021 Volume 16, Issue 11, Page(s) e0259048

Abstract: ... on eye protection was 'low', rated the evidence less trustworthy (p = .001, d = 0.25), and rated ... it as subjectively less effective (p = .018, d = 0.19). The same effects emerged compared to those who were told ... said they were less likely to use eye protection (p = .005, d = 0.18). Participants who were told ...

Abstract	Background: The quality of evidence about the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical health interventions is often low, but little is known about the effects of communicating indications of evidence quality to the public. Methods: In two blinded, randomised, controlled, online experiments, US participants (total n = 2140) were shown one of several versions of an infographic illustrating the effectiveness of eye protection in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Their trust in the information, understanding, feelings of effectiveness of eye protection, and the likelihood of them adopting it were measured. Findings: Compared to those given no quality cues, participants who were told the quality of the evidence on eye protection was 'low', rated the evidence less trustworthy (p = .001, d = 0.25), and rated it as subjectively less effective (p = .018, d = 0.19). The same effects emerged compared to those who were told the quality of the evidence was 'high', and in one of the two studies, those shown 'low' quality of evidence said they were less likely to use eye protection (p = .005, d = 0.18). Participants who were told the quality of the evidence was 'high' showed no statistically significant differences on these measures compared to those given no information about evidence quality. Conclusions: Without quality of evidence cues, participants responded to the evidence about the public health intervention as if it was high quality and this affected their subjective perceptions of its efficacy and trust in the provided information. This raises the ethical dilemma of weighing the importance of transparently stating when the evidence base is actually low quality against evidence that providing such information can decrease trust, perception of intervention efficacy, and likelihood of adopting it.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; COVID-19 ; Communication ; Humans ; Public Health
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-11-17
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ISSN	1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0259048
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: The future lies in uncertainty

Spiegelhalter, D. J

Science. 2014 July 18, v. 345, no. 6194

2014

Abstract: Statisticians have celebrated a lot recently. 2013 marked the 300th anniversary of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi , which used probability theory to explore the properties of statistics as more observations were taken. It was also the 250th ... ...

Abstract	Statisticians have celebrated a lot recently. 2013 marked the 300th anniversary of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi , which used probability theory to explore the properties of statistics as more observations were taken. It was also the 250th anniversary of Thomas Bayes' essay on how humans can sequentially learn from experience, steadily updating their beliefs as more data become available (1). And it was the International Year of Statistics (2). Now that the bunting has been taken down, it is a good time to take stock of recent developments in statistical science and examine its role in the age of Big Data.
Keywords	humans ; mathematical theory ; uncertainty
Language	English
Dates of publication	2014-0718
Size	p. 264-265.
Publishing place	American Association for the Advancement of Science
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	128410-1
ISSN	1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
ISSN (online)	1095-9203
ISSN	0036-8075
DOI	10.1126/science.1251122
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Book: Medicine

Spiegelhalter, D. J

mind the gap : communicating possible harms and benefits of treatment and lifestyle

2012

Abstract: ... harms of treatments and lifestyle choices in a balanced and transparent way. Prof. Spiegelhalter ... all, and a range of alternative presentations may be appropriate. Prof. Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor ... Spiegelhalter has been a consultant to a number of public and private organizations including pharmaceutical ...

Title variant	Communicating possible harms and benefits of treatment and lifestyle
Institution	National Institutes of Health (U.S.)
Author's details	David Spiegelhalter
Abstract	(CIT): Medicine: Mind the Gap is a lecture series that explores issues at the intersection of research, evidence, and clinical practice--areas in which conventional wisdom may be contradicted by recent evidence. From the role of advocacy organizations in medical research and policy, to off-label drug use, to the effectiveness of continuing medical education, the seminar series will aim to engage the NIH community in thought-provoking discussions to challenge what we think we know and to think critically about our role in today"s research environment. There is increasing attention to presenting potential benefits and harms of treatments and lifestyle choices in a balanced and transparent way. Prof. Spiegelhalter will discuss some proposals for how this might be done, focusing on alternative ways in which numbers and graphics may be used, and emphasizing the role of interactive animations and videos. Recent research on public preferences and understanding of different formats strongly suggests that one size does not fit all, and a range of alternative presentations may be appropriate. Prof. Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge, where he is also a senior scientist in the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit. His background is in medical statistics, particularly the use of Bayesian methods in clinical trials, health technology assessment, and drug safety. He led the statistical team in the Bristol Royal Infirmary Inquiry and also gave evidence to the Shipman Inquiry. Prof. Spiegelhalter has been a consultant to a number of public and private organizations including pharmaceutical companies. In his current post, he leads a small team that is attempting to improve the way in which the quantitative aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed in society. He was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 2005 and awarded an Order of the British Empire in 2006 for services to medical statistics. This seminar is sponsored by the Office of Disease Prevention, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Prevention, and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Office of Biostatistics Research.
MeSH term(s)	Risk Assessment ; Communication ; Therapeutics ; Uncertainty ; Life Style ; Physician-Patient Relations
Language	English
Size	1 online resource (1 streaming video file (1 hr., 23 min.) :, sd., col.)
Publisher	National Institutes of Health
Publishing place	Bethesda, Md
Document type	Book
Note	Closed-captioned.
Database	Catalogue of the US National Library of Medicine (NLM)

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Article ; Online: Five rules for evidence communication.

Blastland, Michael / Freeman, Alexandra L J / van der Linden, Sander / Marteau, Theresa M / Spiegelhalter, David

Nature

2020 Volume 587, Issue 7834, Page(s) 362–364

MeSH term(s)	Bias ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Communication ; Conflict of Interest ; Decision Making ; Humans ; Motivation ; Public Opinion ; Research Personnel/psychology ; Science/education ; Social Media/standards ; Social Media/statistics & numerical data ; Teaching ; Trust ; Truth Disclosure ; Uncertainty
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-11-18
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	120714-3
ISSN	1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
ISSN (online)	1476-4687
ISSN	0028-0836
DOI	10.1038/d41586-020-03189-1
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Article ; Online: Handling over-dispersion of performance indicators.

Spiegelhalter, D J

Quality & safety in health care

2005 Volume 14, Issue 5, Page(s) 347–351

Abstract: Objectives: A problem can arise when a performance indicator shows substantially more variability than would be expected by chance alone, since ignoring such "over-dispersion" could lead to a large number of institutions being inappropriately classified ...

Abstract	Objectives: A problem can arise when a performance indicator shows substantially more variability than would be expected by chance alone, since ignoring such "over-dispersion" could lead to a large number of institutions being inappropriately classified as "abnormal". A number of options for handling this phenomenon are investigated, ranging from improved risk stratification to fitting a statistical model that robustly estimates the degree of over-dispersion. Design: Retrospective analysis of publicly available data on survival following coronary artery bypass grafts, emergency readmission rates, and teenage pregnancies. Setting: NHS trusts in England. Results: Funnel plots clearly show the influence of the method chosen for dealing with over-dispersion on the "banding" a trust receives. Both multiplicative and additive approaches are feasible and give intuitively reasonable results, but the additive random effects formulation appears to have a stronger conceptual foundation. Conclusion: A random effects model may offer a reasonable solution. This method has now been adopted by the UK Healthcare Commission in their derivation of star ratings.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Benchmarking ; Cluster Analysis ; Confidence Intervals ; Coronary Artery Bypass/mortality ; Coronary Artery Bypass/statistics & numerical data ; Emergencies ; Feasibility Studies ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Models, Statistical ; Outcome Assessment (Health Care) ; Patient Readmission/statistics & numerical data ; Pregnancy ; Pregnancy in Adolescence/statistics & numerical data ; Quality Assurance, Health Care ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Assessment ; United Kingdom
Language	English
Publishing date	2005-10
Publishing country	England
Document type	Comparative Study ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2076251-3
ISSN	1475-3901 ; 0963-8172 ; 1475-3898
ISSN (online)	1475-3901
ISSN	0963-8172 ; 1475-3898
DOI	10.1136/qshc.2005.013755
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