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  1. Article ; Online: [No title information]

    Weigl, Josef

    Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband der Arzte des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany))

    2018  Volume 80, Issue 8-09, Page(s) 677

    Title translation Antwort.
    Language German
    Publishing date 2018-09-03
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1101426-x
    ISSN 1439-4421 ; 0941-3790 ; 0949-7013
    ISSN (online) 1439-4421
    ISSN 0941-3790 ; 0949-7013
    DOI 10.1055/a-0658-2744
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article: Lehren aus der Russischen Grippe für das Endspiel der derzeitigen PandemieNB- die Exitstrategie für Deutschland / Eine Streitschrift

    Weigl, Josef

    Prävention und Gesundheitsförderung

    2021  Volume 17, Issue 3, Page(s) 257–265

    Abstract: Hintergrund: Seit dem Beginn der SARS-CoV2-Pandemie wurde in Deutschland noch nie eine konkrete Strategie formuliert. Einzelne Themen verselbstständigen sich immerfort und die Begründungen für den Lockdown, nämlich die Reduktion der Mortalität bei den ... ...

    Title translation Lessons from the Russian Flu for the endgame of the current pandemic - An exit strategy for Germany. A disputation
    Abstract Hintergrund: Seit dem Beginn der SARS-CoV2-Pandemie wurde in Deutschland noch nie eine konkrete Strategie formuliert. Einzelne Themen verselbstständigen sich immerfort und die Begründungen für den Lockdown, nämlich die Reduktion der Mortalität bei den vulnerablen Personen- und Altersgruppen und die Gefahr einer erhöhten Letalität bei Überlastung des Gesundheitswesens, allen voran der Intensivstationen, geraten aus den Fokus. Methode: Auf der Basis von Erkenntnissen, die bereits vor dieser Pandemie vorlagen und solchen, die bisher akkumuliert wurden, wird eine Refokussierung vorgenommen und eine Exitstrategie für Deutschland entwickelt. Ergebnisse: Das eigentliche Ziel in der Pandemie ist, die Erstinfektion der Bevölkerung mittels Wildvirusinfektion oder Impfung möglichst schnell zu überwinden und die Herdenimmunitätsschwelle zu erreichen. Nur so kann dem Virus sein Gefahrenpotenzial genommen und eine neu-justierte endemische Lage erreicht werden. Die Russische Grippepandemie 1889-1892 durch CoV-OC43, heute eine pandemische Narbe von damals, ist dazu das Modell. Die aktuell erfolgreiche Impfstoffentwicklung in nie dagewesener Geschwindigkeit ist eine historische Gnade. Schlussfolgerungen: Die Russische Grippepandemie war die zuletzt größte Coronaviruspandemie. Nach einem Impfangebot an die vulnerablen Gruppen ("Targetpopulation") ist der Lockdown schnellst möglich aufzuheben, das Impfangebot für Erwachsene ohne etablierte Risikofaktoren fortzusetzen und parallel dazu der Rest der Bevölkerung schnellst möglich durchseuchen zu lassen. Trotz erfolgreicher Impfstoffentwicklung drängt die Zeit, um weiteren Verwerfungen vorzubeugen.
    Keywords COVID-19 ; Coronavirus ; Erkrankungen der Atemwege ; Gesundheitsversorgungssystem ; Health Care Delivery ; Immunisierung ; Immunization ; Impfung ; Infectious Disorders ; Infektionskrankheiten ; Pandemics ; Pandemie ; Respiratory Tract Disorders ; Strategien ; Strategies ; Vaccination
    Language German
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 2233659-X
    ISSN 1861-6763 ; 1861-6755
    ISSN (online) 1861-6763
    ISSN 1861-6755
    DOI 10.1007/s11553-021-00882-5
    Database PSYNDEX

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  3. Article ; Online: Ivermectin-a drug and a tool.

    Weigl, Josef A I

    European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology

    2020  Volume 39, Issue 3, Page(s) 599–600

    MeSH term(s) Antiparasitic Agents/therapeutic use ; Germany/epidemiology ; Humans ; Ivermectin/therapeutic use ; Post-Exposure Prophylaxis ; Scabies/drug therapy ; Scabies/prevention & control ; Scabies/transmission
    Chemical Substances Antiparasitic Agents ; Ivermectin (70288-86-7)
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-01-09
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Letter
    ZDB-ID 603155-9
    ISSN 1435-4373 ; 0934-9723 ; 0722-2211
    ISSN (online) 1435-4373
    ISSN 0934-9723 ; 0722-2211
    DOI 10.1007/s10096-019-03806-6
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    Full text online

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  4. Article: Challenges in infectious disease control and the current pandemic by skewed distributions

    Weigl, Josef

    Pravention Und Gesundheitsforderung

    Abstract: Background The pandemic phase 3-mitigation-by the SARS-Coronavirus-2 is currently taking on speed in Germany Skewed distributions of key epidemiological parameters of the virus and patient care are a challenge for the control of the outbreak as well as ... ...

    Abstract Background The pandemic phase 3-mitigation-by the SARS-Coronavirus-2 is currently taking on speed in Germany Skewed distributions of key epidemiological parameters of the virus and patient care are a challenge for the control of the outbreak as well as keeping the system functional Methods The skewed parameters-pre-patency period, incubation period, duration of viral shedding and time to admission to hospital-are analyzed in regard to their impact and possible countermeasures Results The skewed distributions are exclusively time related variables They are a handicap for outbreak control as well patient management Optimization between residual open flanks and the efforts to close them is difficult The main stakeholders are the local health departments, the diagnostic laboratories, the health care infrastructure and finally the citizens in regard to the burden due to non-pharmaceutical interventions including quarantine and isolation The duration of quarantine and isolation should urgently be shortened for health care workers (HCW) as well as people in critical infrastructure by ready (re-) testing Calculated risks have to be taken within a phase 3 of a pandemic to keep a system going Conclusions The skewed distributions are a special challenge for infectious disease control In the case of ending quarantine and isolation in phase 3 of the pandemic, they should be judged specifically in regard to the client/patient Cumulative distribution functions are very helpful in this regard
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #734605
    Database COVID19

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  5. Article ; Online: Betrachtung der Pandemie Phase 3 – „mitigation“ – vom Endpunkt Hospitalisation her

    Weigl, Josef

    Abstract: BACKGROUND: The phase 3—“mitigation”—of the current pandemic by SARS-CoV‑2 is now imminent also in Germany. Given the high complexity many issues have to be taken into account. Simplification is urgently warranted not to loose focus of the important ... ...

    Abstract BACKGROUND: The phase 3—“mitigation”—of the current pandemic by SARS-CoV‑2 is now imminent also in Germany. Given the high complexity many issues have to be taken into account. Simplification is urgently warranted not to loose focus of the important things to be done. METHODS: To look at phase 3 from the endpoint—in this case hospital admission—should facilitate the focus on key variables upstream. Based on a simplified model of approximated and plausible parameters for the overall attack rate (AR), the AR(hospitalization) and the AR(ICU admission), the resources needed are compared with the available resources i.e. number of beds available in general and beds in ICU in particular. The calculations are carried out population-based for Ploen County as well as regionally together with the Kiel metropolitan area. RESULTS: Since the ARs in the up do date available cohorts are overestimated, considerably lower AR(hospitalization) and AR(ICU) should be expected. An AR(hospitalization) of 10% could not be materialized in Ploen County; one with 5% could. In the regional analysis together with the University Hospital Kiel (UKSH) an AR(hospitalization) of up to 10% is feasible, as also an AR(ICU) of 3%. The kinetics of hospital admissions is, however, dependent from countermeasures in public health as well as admission habits of the family physicians. The available number of beds is determined by beds made available and by the mean duration of hospitalization. The latter depends from the age and underlying conditions of the patients. CONCLUSIONS: System failure has to be averted by clarity in regard to the key parameters and their independent variables. The regional management is crucial and should be coordinated by a so-called bed-coordinator. Close cooperation allover the health care system is needed in alliance with the local health departments.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher PMC
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1007/s11553-020-00771-3
    Database COVID19

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  6. Article ; Online: Herausforderungen in der Seuchenkontrolle und der jetzigen Pandemie durch verzerrte Verteilungen

    Weigl, Josef

    Abstract: BACKGROUND: The pandemic phase 3—mitigation—by the SARS-Coronavirus‑2 is currently taking on speed in Germany. Skewed distributions of key epidemiological parameters of the virus and patient care are a challenge for the control of the outbreak as well as ...

    Abstract BACKGROUND: The pandemic phase 3—mitigation—by the SARS-Coronavirus‑2 is currently taking on speed in Germany. Skewed distributions of key epidemiological parameters of the virus and patient care are a challenge for the control of the outbreak as well as keeping the system functional. METHODS: The skewed parameters—pre-patency period, incubation period, duration of viral shedding and time to admission to hospital—are analyzed in regard to their impact and possible countermeasures. RESULTS: The skewed distributions are exclusively time related variables. They are a handicap for outbreak control as well patient management. Optimization between residual open flanks and the efforts to close them is difficult. The main stakeholders are the local health departments, the diagnostic laboratories, the health care infrastructure and finally the citizens in regard to the burden due to non-pharmaceutical interventions including quarantine and isolation. The duration of quarantine and isolation should urgently be shortened for health care workers (HCW) as well as people in critical infrastructure by ready (re-) testing. Calculated risks have to be taken within a phase 3 of a pandemic to keep a system going. CONCLUSIONS: The skewed distributions are a special challenge for infectious disease control. In the case of ending quarantine and isolation in phase 3 of the pandemic, they should be judged specifically in regard to the client/patient. Cumulative distribution functions are very helpful in this regard.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher PMC
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1007/s11553-020-00775-z
    Database COVID19

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  7. Article ; Online: Mit Immanuel Kant in die zweite Welle der gegenwärtigen Pandemie

    Weigl, Josef

    Abstract: BACKGROUND: The efficacy of the most serious limitation of free movement of the German citizens since the end of the World War II and the Oil Crisis 1973 as intended countermeasure against the first wave of the pandemic is currently expected. The ... ...

    Abstract BACKGROUND: The efficacy of the most serious limitation of free movement of the German citizens since the end of the World War II and the Oil Crisis 1973 as intended countermeasure against the first wave of the pandemic is currently expected. The planning in regard to further action for the coming weeks and months has to take place now. METHODS: With the help of the principles of the German philosopher Kant, the thinking and planning is framed. RESULTS: The modelling by the researchers of the Imperial College, London, make an oversized second wave in autumn/winter 2020 most likely, if the current countermeasures are kept in place for too long. A timely relaxation of the measures is warranted to allow a staggered attack by the virus onto the population (German: “Durchseuchung”) before the next influenza season 2020/2021 without overburdening the health care infrastructure especially the respiratory care bed capacity. The tempting perspective of a vaccine available before the second wave in autumn, should not lead to any delay in the intermittent relaxation of the countermeasures. A pre-licensure marginally tested vaccine would only be eligible for people with an anyway high risk in regard to SARS-CoV‑2. CONCLUSIONS: Further, more detailed and from each other independent models on the basis of data from Germany are urgently needed. Upon these a heterogeneous trans-hierarchical committee would need to discuss and make decisions in regard to differentiated relaxations of measures given the high remaining uncertainties.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher PMC
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1007/s11553-020-00783-z
    Database COVID19

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  8. Article: Assessment of the pandemic phase 3 – mitigation – from the endpoint hospitalization/ Betrachtung der Pandemie Phase 3 – „mitigation“ – vom Endpunkt Hospitalisation her

    Weigl, Josef

    Pravent. Gesundheitsforderung

    Abstract: Background: The phase 3—“mitigation”—of the current pandemic by SARS-CoV‑2 is now imminent also in Germany. Given the high complexity many issues have to be taken into account. Simplification is urgently warranted not to loose focus of the important ... ...

    Abstract Background: The phase 3—“mitigation”—of the current pandemic by SARS-CoV‑2 is now imminent also in Germany. Given the high complexity many issues have to be taken into account. Simplification is urgently warranted not to loose focus of the important things to be done. Methods: To look at phase 3 from the endpoint—in this case hospital admission—should facilitate the focus on key variables upstream. Based on a simplified model of approximated and plausible parameters for the overall attack rate (AR), the AR(hospitalization) and the AR(ICU admission), the resources needed are compared with the available resources i.e. number of beds available in general and beds in ICU in particular. The calculations are carried out population-based for Ploen County as well as regionally together with the Kiel metropolitan area. Results: Since the ARs in the up do date available cohorts are overestimated, considerably lower AR(hospitalization) and AR(ICU) should be expected. An AR(hospitalization) of 10% could not be materialized in Ploen County; one with 5% could. In the regional analysis together with the University Hospital Kiel (UKSH) an AR(hospitalization) of up to 10% is feasible, as also an AR(ICU) of 3%. The kinetics of hospital admissions is, however, dependent from countermeasures in public health as well as admission habits of the family physicians. The available number of beds is determined by beds made available and by the mean duration of hospitalization. The latter depends from the age and underlying conditions of the patients. Conclusions: System failure has to be averted by clarity in regard to the key parameters and their independent variables. The regional management is crucial and should be coordinated by a so-called bed-coordinator. Close cooperation allover the health care system is needed in alliance with the local health departments.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #11860
    Database COVID19

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  9. Article: With Immanuel Kant into the second wave of the current pandemic/ Mit Immanuel Kant in die zweite Welle der gegenwärtigen Pandemie

    Weigl, Josef

    Pravent. Gesundheitsforderung

    Abstract: Background: The efficacy of the most serious limitation of free movement of the German citizens since the end of the World War II and the Oil Crisis 1973 as intended countermeasure against the first wave of the pandemic is currently expected. The ... ...

    Abstract Background: The efficacy of the most serious limitation of free movement of the German citizens since the end of the World War II and the Oil Crisis 1973 as intended countermeasure against the first wave of the pandemic is currently expected. The planning in regard to further action for the coming weeks and months has to take place now. Methods: With the help of the principles of the German philosopher Kant, the thinking and planning is framed. Results: The modelling by the researchers of the Imperial College, London, make an oversized second wave in autumn/winter 2020 most likely, if the current countermeasures are kept in place for too long. A timely relaxation of the measures is warranted to allow a staggered attack by the virus onto the population (German: “Durchseuchung”) before the next influenza season 2020/2021 without overburdening the health care infrastructure especially the respiratory care bed capacity. The tempting perspective of a vaccine available before the second wave in autumn, should not lead to any delay in the intermittent relaxation of the countermeasures. A pre-licensure marginally tested vaccine would only be eligible for people with an anyway high risk in regard to SARS-CoV‑2. Conclusions: Further, more detailed and from each other independent models on the basis of data from Germany are urgently needed. Upon these a heterogeneous trans-hierarchical committee would need to discuss and make decisions in regard to differentiated relaxations of measures given the high remaining uncertainties.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #42036
    Database COVID19

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  10. Article: Antwort

    Weigl, Josef

    Das Gesundheitswesen

    2018  Volume 80, Issue 08/09, Page(s) 677–677

    Language German
    Publishing date 2018-08-01
    Publisher © Georg Thieme Verlag KG
    Publishing place Stuttgart ; New York
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 1101426-x
    ISSN 1439-4421 ; 0941-3790 ; 0949-7013
    ISSN (online) 1439-4421
    ISSN 0941-3790 ; 0949-7013
    DOI 10.1055/a-0658-2744
    Database Thieme publisher's database

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