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  1. Article: Correction: Multiple Confidence Intervals and Surprisal Intervals to Avoid Significance Fallacy.

    Rovetta, Alessandro

    Cureus

    2024  Volume 16, Issue 2, Page(s) c161

    Abstract: This corrects the article DOI: 10.7759/cureus.51964.]. ...

    Abstract [This corrects the article DOI: 10.7759/cureus.51964.].
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-14
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Published Erratum
    ZDB-ID 2747273-5
    ISSN 2168-8184
    ISSN 2168-8184
    DOI 10.7759/cureus.c161
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article: Multiple Confidence Intervals and Surprisal Intervals to Avoid Significance Fallacy.

    Rovetta, Alessandro

    Cureus

    2024  Volume 16, Issue 1, Page(s) e51964

    Abstract: Overconfidence in statistical results in medicine is fueled by improper practices and historical biases afflicting the concept of statistical significance. In particular, the dichotomization of significance (i.e., significant vs. not significant), ... ...

    Abstract Overconfidence in statistical results in medicine is fueled by improper practices and historical biases afflicting the concept of statistical significance. In particular, the dichotomization of significance (i.e., significant vs. not significant), blending of Fisherian and Neyman-Pearson approaches, magnitude and nullification fallacies, and other fundamental misunderstandings distort the purpose of statistical investigations entirely, impacting their ability to inform public health decisions or other fields of science in general. For these reasons, the international statistical community has attempted to propose various alternatives or different interpretative modes. However, as of today, such misuses still prevail. In this regard, the present paper discusses the use of multiple confidence (or, more aptly, compatibility) intervals to address these issues at their core. Additionally, an extension of the concept of confidence interval, called surprisal interval (S-interval), is proposed in the realm of statistical surprisal. The aforementioned is based on comparing the statistical surprise to an easily interpretable phenomenon, such as obtaining S consecutive heads when flipping a fair coin. This allows for a complete departure from the notions of statistical significance and confidence, which carry with them longstanding misconceptions.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-01-09
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Editorial
    ZDB-ID 2747273-5
    ISSN 2168-8184
    ISSN 2168-8184
    DOI 10.7759/cureus.51964
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article: A Framework to Avoid Significance Fallacy.

    Rovetta, Alessandro

    Cureus

    2023  Volume 15, Issue 6, Page(s) e40242

    Abstract: This manuscript presents a concise approach to tackle the widespread misuse of statistical significance in scientific research, focusing on public health. It offers practical guidance for conducting accurate statistical evaluations and promoting easily ... ...

    Abstract This manuscript presents a concise approach to tackle the widespread misuse of statistical significance in scientific research, focusing on public health. It offers practical guidance for conducting accurate statistical evaluations and promoting easily understandable results based on actual evidence. When conducting a statistical study to inform decision-making, it is recommended to follow a step-by-step sequence while considering various factors. Firstly, multiple target hypotheses should be adopted to assess the compatibility of experimental data with different models. Reporting all P-values in full, rounded in order to have a single non-zero significant digit, enhances transparency and reduces the likelihood of exaggerating the state of the evidence. Detailed documentation of the procedures used to evaluate the compatibility between test assumptions and data should be provided for rigorous assessment. A descriptive evaluation of results can be aided by using statistical compatibility ranges, which help avoid misrepresenting the evidence. Separately evaluating and reporting statistical compatibility and effect size prevents the magnitude fallacy. Additionally, reporting measures of statistical effect size enables evaluation of sectoral relevance, such as clinical significance. Multiple compatibility intervals, such as 99%, 95%, and 90% confidence intervals, should be reported to allow readers to assess the variation of P-values based on the width of the interval. These recommendations aim to enhance the robustness and interpretability of statistical analyses and promote transparent reporting of findings. The author encourages journal adoption of similar frameworks to enhance scientific rigor, particularly in the field of medical science.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-06-11
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2747273-5
    ISSN 2168-8184
    ISSN 2168-8184
    DOI 10.7759/cureus.40242
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article: Common Statistical Errors in Scientific Investigations: A Simple Guide to Avoid Unfounded Decisions.

    Rovetta, Alessandro

    Cureus

    2023  Volume 15, Issue 1, Page(s) e33351

    Abstract: During my experience as an author, peer reviewer, and editor during COVID-19, I have encountered - and committed - various errors related to the interpretation and use of statistical measures and tests. Primarily concerning health sciences such as ... ...

    Abstract During my experience as an author, peer reviewer, and editor during COVID-19, I have encountered - and committed - various errors related to the interpretation and use of statistical measures and tests. Primarily concerning health sciences such as epidemiology, infodemiology, and public health, the evidence used to inform a conclusion carries an extremely high weight as it translates into decisions made to preserve the population's well-being. Therefore, the aforementioned evidence must be reliable. This short guide discusses the most common and dangerous mistakes I have experienced during my scientific journey. Real and invented examples have been proposed and analyzed in detail, showing possible interpretations, both correct and incorrect, and their consequences. Such a framework makes it clear that a statistical test alone cannot answer any scientific questions. Indeed, the interpretation of results and the verification of assumptions and test eligibility - subject to the author's evaluation - are crucial components of the integrity of the scientific investigation. Before using a test or adopting a measure, we must ask ourselves the following fundamental questions: Are there valid reasons to explore my research question? Am I sure my approach can fully and adequately answer my research question? Am I sure that my model's assumptions - basic and hidden - are sufficiently satisfied? How could violating those assumptions affect the validity of the results and stakeholders? Is the effect size relevant regardless of statistical significance?
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-01-04
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2747273-5
    ISSN 2168-8184
    ISSN 2168-8184
    DOI 10.7759/cureus.33351
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: There is a need for more precise models to assess the determinants of health crises like COVID-19.

    Rovetta, Alessandro

    Frontiers in public health

    2023  Volume 11, Page(s) 1179261

    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global mortality. While the causal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and the anomalous increase in deaths is established, more precise and complex models are needed to determine the exact weight of ... ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global mortality. While the causal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and the anomalous increase in deaths is established, more precise and complex models are needed to determine the exact weight of epidemiological factors involved. Indeed, COVID-19 behavior is influenced by a wide range of variables, including demographic characteristics, population habits and behavior, healthcare performance, and environmental and seasonal risk factors. The bidirectional causality between impacted and impacting aspects, as well as confounding variables, complicates efforts to draw clear, generalizable conclusions regarding the effectiveness and cost-benefit ratio of non-pharmaceutical health countermeasures. Thus, it is imperative that the scientific community and health authorities worldwide develop comprehensive models not only for the current pandemic but also for future health crises. These models should be implemented locally to account for micro-differences in epidemiological characteristics that may have relevant effects. It is important to note that the lack of a universal model does not imply that local decisions have been unjustified, and the request to decrease scientific uncertainty does not mean denying the evidence of the effectiveness of the countermeasures adopted. Therefore, this paper must not be exploited to denigrate either the scientific community or the health authorities.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Pandemics ; Delivery of Health Care
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-06-15
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2711781-9
    ISSN 2296-2565 ; 2296-2565
    ISSN (online) 2296-2565
    ISSN 2296-2565
    DOI 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1179261
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  6. Article: Health communication is an epidemiological determinant: Public health implications for COVID-19 and future crises management.

    Rovetta, Alessandro

    Health promotion perspectives

    2022  Volume 12, Issue 3, Page(s) 226–228

    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-12-10
    Publishing country Iran
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2691688-5
    ISSN 2228-6497
    ISSN 2228-6497
    DOI 10.34172/hpp.2022.28
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  7. Article: World Health Organization is losing online credibility towards health-sensitive topics: Infodemiological analysis of Facebook users' reactions.

    Rovetta, Alessandro

    Health promotion perspectives

    2022  Volume 12, Issue 4, Page(s) 367–371

    Abstract: Background: ...

    Abstract Background:
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-12-31
    Publishing country Iran
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2691688-5
    ISSN 2228-6497
    ISSN 2228-6497
    DOI 10.34172/hpp.2022.48
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  8. Article ; Online: There is a need for more precise models to assess the determinants of health crises like COVID-19

    Alessandro Rovetta

    Frontiers in Public Health, Vol

    2023  Volume 11

    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global mortality. While the causal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and the anomalous increase in deaths is established, more precise and complex models are needed to determine the exact weight of ... ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global mortality. While the causal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and the anomalous increase in deaths is established, more precise and complex models are needed to determine the exact weight of epidemiological factors involved. Indeed, COVID-19 behavior is influenced by a wide range of variables, including demographic characteristics, population habits and behavior, healthcare performance, and environmental and seasonal risk factors. The bidirectional causality between impacted and impacting aspects, as well as confounding variables, complicates efforts to draw clear, generalizable conclusions regarding the effectiveness and cost-benefit ratio of non-pharmaceutical health countermeasures. Thus, it is imperative that the scientific community and health authorities worldwide develop comprehensive models not only for the current pandemic but also for future health crises. These models should be implemented locally to account for micro-differences in epidemiological characteristics that may have relevant effects. It is important to note that the lack of a universal model does not imply that local decisions have been unjustified, and the request to decrease scientific uncertainty does not mean denying the evidence of the effectiveness of the countermeasures adopted. Therefore, this paper must not be exploited to denigrate either the scientific community or the health authorities.
    Keywords COVID-19 ; epidemiology - analytic (risk factors) ; public health ; public health policies ; epidemic determinants ; confounding (epidemiology) ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Article ; Online: An integrated infoveillance approach using google trends and Talkwalker

    Alessandro Rovetta

    Healthcare Analytics, Vol 4, Iss , Pp 100272- (2023)

    Listening to web concerns about COVID-19 vaccines in Italy

    2023  

    Abstract: An infodemic is an information epidemic capable of compromising public health. This manuscript proposes an infoveillance method suitable for listening to web concerns on health to develop adequate infodemiological responses based on the World Health ... ...

    Abstract An infodemic is an information epidemic capable of compromising public health. This manuscript proposes an infoveillance method suitable for listening to web concerns on health to develop adequate infodemiological responses based on the World Health Organization indications. In particular, the case of COVID-19 vaccinations in Italy was investigated. Web interest and concern in COVID-19 vaccines over the past week (January 8–14, 2023) was investigated via the websites Google Trends and Talkwalker by searching for appropriate keywords. Thanks to the analysis of related queries and topics, it was possible to determine and examine the most debated topics relating to specific side effects. Emotional reactions regarding COVID-19 vaccines have been negative in varying percentages between 40 and 70 %, depending on the topic discussed. Feelings of alarm, derision, doubt, and anger were common (about 60 %). The concerns were mainly about the effectiveness against recent COVID-19 variants and alleged side effects such as sudden death, tumors, myocarditis, prion disease, and high ferritin. The most used media among those scrutinized was Twitter (over 90 % of interactions). The male audience participated more and showed more negativity than the female one. The age groups mainly involved were the under-45s. This research discussed the combined use of Google Trends and Talkwalker to conduct rapid infoveillance surveys. The results found showed that the web public has many doubts about COVID-19 vaccines, including the appearance of very rare or unproved side effects. Based on the WHO infodemic management strategy, it is essential that this or similar approaches are adopted by health and government authorities to listen to the community and calibrate appropriate infodemiological responses aimed at preserving public health.
    Keywords Communication ; Google trends ; Infodemiology ; Infoveillance ; Public health ; Talkwalker ; Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics ; R858-859.7
    Subject code 306
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Elsevier
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  10. Article ; Online: Google Trends as a Predictive Tool for COVID-19 Vaccinations in Italy: Retrospective Infodemiological Analysis.

    Rovetta, Alessandro

    JMIRx med

    2022  Volume 3, Issue 2, Page(s) e35356

    Abstract: Background: Google Trends is an infoveillance tool widely used by the scientific community to investigate different user behaviors related to COVID-19. However, several limitations regarding its adoption are reported in the literature.: Objective: ... ...

    Abstract Background: Google Trends is an infoveillance tool widely used by the scientific community to investigate different user behaviors related to COVID-19. However, several limitations regarding its adoption are reported in the literature.
    Objective: This paper aims to provide an effective and efficient approach to investigating vaccine adherence against COVID-19 via Google Trends.
    Methods: Through the cross-correlational analysis of well-targeted hypotheses, we investigate the predictive capacity of web searches related to COVID-19 toward vaccinations in Italy from November 2020 to November 2021. The keyword "vaccine reservation" query (VRQ) was chosen as it reflects a real intention of being vaccinated (V). Furthermore, the impact of the second most read Italian newspaper (vaccine-related headlines [VRH]) on vaccine-related web searches was investigated to evaluate the role of the mass media as a confounding factor. Fisher r-to-z transformation (
    Results: Simple and generic keywords are more likely to identify the actual web interest in COVID-19 vaccines than specific and elaborated keywords. Cross-correlations between VRQ and V were very strong and significant (min
    Conclusions: This research provides preliminary evidence in favor of using Google Trends as a surveillance and prediction tool for vaccine adherence against COVID-19 in Italy. Further research is needed to establish the appropriate use and limits of Google Trends for vaccination tracking. However, these findings prove that the search for suitable keywords is a fundamental step to reduce confounding factors. Additionally, targeting hypotheses helps diminish the likelihood of spurious correlations. It is recommended that Google Trends be leveraged as a complementary infoveillance tool by government agencies to monitor and predict vaccine adherence in this and future crises by following the methods proposed in this paper.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-04-19
    Publishing country Canada
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2563-6316
    ISSN (online) 2563-6316
    DOI 10.2196/35356
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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