Book ; Article ; Online: Closed-Form Solutions for Optimal Social Distancing in a SIR Model of COVID-19 Suppression
2020
Abstract: I present a stylized suspected-infected-recovered (SIR) model of COVID-19, with symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients, and social distancing intervention. The optimal suppress strategy has low-infection rates, enabling assumptions that support closed- ... ...
Abstract | I present a stylized suspected-infected-recovered (SIR) model of COVID-19, with symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients, and social distancing intervention. The optimal suppress strategy has low-infection rates, enabling assumptions that support closed-form solutions. The model predicts high costs of social distancing in comparison to health costs of the disease; it separates public versus private benefits of social distancing, and determines the required level of group immunity for relaxing social distance intervention. I extend the model with heterogeneous population for preferences over social contacts, health costs, and transmission. Heterogeneity in transmission intensity offers most opportunities for reduced costs under a differentiated social distancing policy. |
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Keywords | ddc:330 ; I18 ; E17 ; D62 ; COVID-19 ; SIR model ; suppression ; (differentiated) social distancing ; covid19 |
Language | English |
Publisher | Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo) |
Publishing country | de |
Document type | Book ; Article ; Online |
Database | BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection) |
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