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  1. Article ; Online: Making the black box more transparent: improving the reporting of artificial intelligence studies in healthcare.

    Collins, Gary S

    BMJ (Clinical research ed.)

    2024  Volume 385, Page(s) q832

    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Artificial Intelligence ; Health Facilities ; Research ; Delivery of Health Care
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-04-16
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1362901-3
    ISSN 1756-1833 ; 0959-8154 ; 0959-8146 ; 0959-8138 ; 0959-535X ; 1759-2151
    ISSN (online) 1756-1833
    ISSN 0959-8154 ; 0959-8146 ; 0959-8138 ; 0959-535X ; 1759-2151
    DOI 10.1136/bmj.q832
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Prediction models should contain predictors known at the moment of intended use.

    Collins, Gary S / Dhiman, Paula

    Aging clinical and experimental research

    2023  Volume 35, Issue 12, Page(s) 3243–3244

    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-10-11
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Letter
    ZDB-ID 2104785-6
    ISSN 1720-8319 ; 1594-0667
    ISSN (online) 1720-8319
    ISSN 1594-0667
    DOI 10.1007/s40520-023-02560-2
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: COVID-19 Prediction Models Need Robust and Transparent Development.

    Collins, Gary S

    Disaster medicine and public health preparedness

    2021  Volume 16, Issue 4, Page(s) 1318–1319

    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Hospitalization
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-04-19
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Letter
    ZDB-ID 2375268-3
    ISSN 1938-744X ; 1935-7893
    ISSN (online) 1938-744X
    ISSN 1935-7893
    DOI 10.1017/dmp.2021.119
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article ; Online: A prediction model for venous thromboembolism in the intensive care unit: flawed methods may lead to inaccurate predictions.

    Gerry, Stephen / Collins, Gary S

    Critical care (London, England)

    2023  Volume 27, Issue 1, Page(s) 495

    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Venous Thromboembolism/epidemiology ; Intensive Care Units ; Risk Factors
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-12-18
    Publishing country England
    Document type Letter ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 2041406-7
    ISSN 1466-609X ; 1364-8535
    ISSN (online) 1466-609X
    ISSN 1364-8535
    DOI 10.1186/s13054-023-04778-y
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: Invited Commentary: Transparent reporting of artificial intelligence models development and evaluation in surgery: The TRIPOD and DECIDE-AI checklists.

    Vasey, Baptiste / Collins, Gary S

    Surgery

    2023  Volume 174, Issue 3, Page(s) 727–729

    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Checklist ; Artificial Intelligence ; Prognosis ; Models, Statistical
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-05-25
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 202467-6
    ISSN 1532-7361 ; 0039-6060
    ISSN (online) 1532-7361
    ISSN 0039-6060
    DOI 10.1016/j.surg.2023.04.037
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  6. Article ; Online: ChatGPT: standard reporting guidelines for responsible use.

    Cacciamani, Giovanni E / Collins, Gary S / Gill, Inderbir S

    Nature

    2023  Volume 618, Issue 7964, Page(s) 238

    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-06-05
    Publishing country England
    Document type News
    ZDB-ID 120714-3
    ISSN 1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
    ISSN (online) 1476-4687
    ISSN 0028-0836
    DOI 10.1038/d41586-023-01853-w
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  7. Article ; Online: Stability of clinical prediction models developed using statistical or machine learning methods.

    Riley, Richard D / Collins, Gary S

    Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift

    2023  Volume 65, Issue 8, Page(s) e2200302

    Abstract: Clinical prediction models estimate an individual's risk of a particular health outcome. A developed model is a consequence of the development dataset and model-building strategy, including the sample size, number of predictors, and analysis method (e.g., ...

    Abstract Clinical prediction models estimate an individual's risk of a particular health outcome. A developed model is a consequence of the development dataset and model-building strategy, including the sample size, number of predictors, and analysis method (e.g., regression or machine learning). We raise the concern that many models are developed using small datasets that lead to instability in the model and its predictions (estimated risks). We define four levels of model stability in estimated risks moving from the overall mean to the individual level. Through simulation and case studies of statistical and machine learning approaches, we show instability in a model's estimated risks is often considerable, and ultimately manifests itself as miscalibration of predictions in new data. Therefore, we recommend researchers always examine instability at the model development stage and propose instability plots and measures to do so. This entails repeating the model-building steps (those used to develop the original prediction model) in each of multiple (e.g., 1000) bootstrap samples, to produce multiple bootstrap models, and deriving (i) a prediction instability plot of bootstrap model versus original model predictions; (ii) the mean absolute prediction error (mean absolute difference between individuals' original and bootstrap model predictions), and (iii) calibration, classification, and decision curve instability plots of bootstrap models applied in the original sample. A case study illustrates how these instability assessments help reassure (or not) whether model predictions are likely to be reliable (or not), while informing a model's critical appraisal (risk of bias rating), fairness, and further validation requirements.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Prognosis ; Machine Learning ; Computer Simulation
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-07-19
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 131640-0
    ISSN 1521-4036 ; 0323-3847 ; 0006-3452
    ISSN (online) 1521-4036
    ISSN 0323-3847 ; 0006-3452
    DOI 10.1002/bimj.202200302
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    Z 1267: Show issues

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  8. Article ; Online: Improving Clinical Prognostic Model Methodology: Letter to the Editor.

    Bullock, Garrett S / Collins, Gary S

    The American journal of sports medicine

    2021  Volume 49, Issue 6, Page(s) NP23–NP25

    MeSH term(s) Adolescent ; Humans ; Prognosis ; Shoulder Pain
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-04-20
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Letter ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 197482-8
    ISSN 1552-3365 ; 0363-5465
    ISSN (online) 1552-3365
    ISSN 0363-5465
    DOI 10.1177/03635465211005721
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  9. Article ; Online: Predicting the Objective and Subjective Clinical Outcomes of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Machine Learning Analysis of 432 Patients: Letter to the Editor.

    Bullock, Garrett S / Ward, Patrick / Losciale, Justin / Collins, Gary S

    The American journal of sports medicine

    2023  Volume 51, Issue 5, Page(s) NP15–NP16

    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Anterior Cruciate Ligament/surgery ; Knee Joint/surgery ; Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction ; Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries/surgery
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-04-01
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Letter ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 197482-8
    ISSN 1552-3365 ; 0363-5465
    ISSN (online) 1552-3365
    ISSN 0363-5465
    DOI 10.1177/03635465231161059
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  10. Article ; Online: Reporting standards for the use of large language model-linked chatbots for health advice.

    Huo, Bright / Cacciamani, Giovanni E / Collins, Gary S / McKechnie, Tyler / Lee, Yung / Guyatt, Gordon

    Nature medicine

    2023  Volume 29, Issue 12, Page(s) 2988

    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-11-11
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Letter
    ZDB-ID 1220066-9
    ISSN 1546-170X ; 1078-8956
    ISSN (online) 1546-170X
    ISSN 1078-8956
    DOI 10.1038/s41591-023-02656-2
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