Article: Predicting Covid-19 pandemic waves with biologically and behaviorally informed universal differential equations.
2024 Volume 10, Issue 4, Page(s) e25363
Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, it became clear that pandemic waves and population responses were locked in a mutual feedback loop in a classic example of a coupled behavior-disease system. We demonstrate for the first time that universal differential ... ...
| Abstract | During the COVID-19 pandemic, it became clear that pandemic waves and population responses were locked in a mutual feedback loop in a classic example of a coupled behavior-disease system. We demonstrate for the first time that universal differential equation (UDE) models are able to extract this interplay from data. We develop a UDE model for COVID-19 and test its ability to make predictions of second pandemic waves. We find that UDEs are capable of learning coupled behavior-disease dynamics and predicting second waves in a variety of populations, provided they are supplied with learning biases describing simple assumptions about disease transmission and population response. Though not yet suitable for deployment as a policy-guiding tool, our results demonstrate potential benefits, drawbacks, and useful techniques when applying universal differential equations to coupled systems. |
|---|---|
| Language | English |
| Publishing date | 2024-02-05 |
| Publishing country | England |
| Document type | Journal Article |
| ZDB-ID | 2835763-2 |
| ISSN | 2405-8440 |
| ISSN | 2405-8440 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25363 |
| Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
More links
Kategorien
Order via subito
This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.