Article ; Online: Epidemic trend analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries using modified susceptible-infected-recovered predictive model.
Engineering reports : open access
2022 , Page(s) e12550
Abstract: A novel coronavirus causing the severe and fatal respiratory syndrome was identified in China, is now producing outbreaks in more than 200 countries around the world, and became pandemic by the time. In this article, a modified version of the well-known ... ...
Abstract | A novel coronavirus causing the severe and fatal respiratory syndrome was identified in China, is now producing outbreaks in more than 200 countries around the world, and became pandemic by the time. In this article, a modified version of the well-known mathematical epidemic model susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) is used to analyze the epidemic's course of COVID-19 in eight different countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). To achieve this goal, the parameters of the SIR model are identified by using publicly available data for the corresponding countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Based on the prediction model, we estimated the epidemic trend of COVID-19 outbreak in SAARC countries for 20, 90, and 180 days, respectively. A short-mid-long term prediction model has been designed to understand the early dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the southeast Asian region. The maximum and minimum basic reproduction numbers ( |
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Language | English |
Publishing date | 2022-07-10 |
Publishing country | United States |
Document type | Journal Article |
ISSN | 2577-8196 |
ISSN (online) | 2577-8196 |
DOI | 10.1002/eng2.12550 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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