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Article: Multi-agent system collision model to predict the transmission of seasonal influenza in Tokyo from 2014-2015 to 2018-2019 seasons.

Tomizawa, Nobuo / Kumamaru, Kanako K / Okamoto, Koh / Aoki, Shigeki

2021 Volume 7, Issue 8, Page(s) e07859

Abstract: The objective of this study was to apply the multi-agent system (MAS) collision model to predict seasonal influenza epidemic in Tokyo for 5 seasons (2014-2015 to 2018-2019 seasons). The MAS collision model assumes each individual as a particle inside a ... ...

Abstract	The objective of this study was to apply the multi-agent system (MAS) collision model to predict seasonal influenza epidemic in Tokyo for 5 seasons (2014-2015 to 2018-2019 seasons). The MAS collision model assumes each individual as a particle inside a square domain. The particles move within the domain and disease transmission occurs in a certain probability when an infected particle collides a susceptible particle. The probability was determined based on the basic reproduction number calculated using the actual data. The simulation started with 1 infected particle and 999 susceptible particles to correspond to the onset of an influenza epidemic. We performed the simulation for 150 days and the calculation was repeated 500 times for each season. To improve the accuracy of the prediction, we selected simulations which have similar incidence number to the actual data in specific weeks. Analysis including all simulations corresponded good to the actual data in 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 seasons. However, the model failed to predict the sharp peak incidence after the New Year Holidays in 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019 seasons. A model which included simulations selected by the week of peak incidence predicted the week and number of peak incidence better than a model including all simulations in all seasons. The reproduction number was also similar to the actual data in this model. In conclusion, the MAS collision model predicted the epidemic curve with good accuracy by selecting the simulations using the actual data without changing the initial parameters such as the basic reproduction number and infection time.
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-23
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2835763-2
ISSN	2405-8440
ISSN	2405-8440
DOI	10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07859
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Article ; Online: Multi-agent system collision model to predict the transmission of seasonal influenza in Tokyo from 2014–2015 to 2018–2019 seasons

Nobuo Tomizawa / Kanako K. Kumamaru / Koh Okamoto / Shigeki Aoki

Heliyon, Vol 7, Iss 8, Pp e07859- (2021)

2021

Abstract: The objective of this study was to apply the multi-agent system (MAS) collision model to predict seasonal influenza epidemic in Tokyo for 5 seasons (2014–2015 to 2018–2019 seasons). The MAS collision model assumes each individual as a particle inside a ... ...

Abstract	The objective of this study was to apply the multi-agent system (MAS) collision model to predict seasonal influenza epidemic in Tokyo for 5 seasons (2014–2015 to 2018–2019 seasons). The MAS collision model assumes each individual as a particle inside a square domain. The particles move within the domain and disease transmission occurs in a certain probability when an infected particle collides a susceptible particle. The probability was determined based on the basic reproduction number calculated using the actual data. The simulation started with 1 infected particle and 999 susceptible particles to correspond to the onset of an influenza epidemic. We performed the simulation for 150 days and the calculation was repeated 500 times for each season. To improve the accuracy of the prediction, we selected simulations which have similar incidence number to the actual data in specific weeks. Analysis including all simulations corresponded good to the actual data in 2014–2015 and 2015–2016 seasons. However, the model failed to predict the sharp peak incidence after the New Year Holidays in 2016–2017, 2017–2018, and 2018–2019 seasons. A model which included simulations selected by the week of peak incidence predicted the week and number of peak incidence better than a model including all simulations in all seasons. The reproduction number was also similar to the actual data in this model. In conclusion, the MAS collision model predicted the epidemic curve with good accuracy by selecting the simulations using the actual data without changing the initial parameters such as the basic reproduction number and infection time.
Keywords	Disease transmission ; Influenza ; Multi-agent system ; SIR model ; Science (General) ; Q1-390 ; Social sciences (General) ; H1-99
Subject code	612
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
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Article ; Online: Coronary Artery Vorticity to Predict Functional Plaque Progression in Participants with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Tomizawa, Nobuo / Fujimoto, Shinichiro / Mita, Tomoya / Takahashi, Daigo / Nozaki, Yui / Fan, Ruiheng / Kudo, Ayako / Kawaguchi, Yuko / Takamura, Kazuhisa / Hiki, Makoto / Kurita, Mika / Kumamaru, Kanako K / Watada, Hirotaka / Minamino, Tohru / Aoki, Shigeki

Radiology. Cardiothoracic imaging

2023 Volume 5, Issue 4, Page(s) e230016

Abstract: Purpose: To investigate whether vorticity could predict functional plaque progression better than high-risk plaque (HRP) and lesion length (LL) in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus.: Materials and methods: This single-center prospective study ...

Abstract	Purpose: To investigate whether vorticity could predict functional plaque progression better than high-risk plaque (HRP) and lesion length (LL) in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Materials and methods: This single-center prospective study included 61 participants (mean age, 61 years ± 9 [SD]; 43 male participants) who underwent serial coronary CT angiography at 2 years, with 20%-70% stenosis at initial CT between October 2015 and March 2020. The number of the following HRP characteristics was recorded: low attenuation, positive remodeling, spotty calcification, and napkin-ring sign. Vorticity was calculated using a mesh-free simulation. A decrease in CT fractional flow reserve larger than 0.05 indicated functional progression. Models using HRP and LL and vorticity were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: Of the 94 vessels evaluated, 25 vessels (27%) showed functional progression. Vessels with functional progression showed higher vorticity at distal stenosis (984 sec Conclusion: In participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus, vorticity at distal stenosis was a better predictor of functional plaque progression than HRP and LL.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-24
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2638-6135
ISSN (online)	2638-6135
DOI	10.1148/ryct.230016
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Article ; Online: Energy loss is related to CT fractional flow reserve progression in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

Tomizawa, Nobuo / Fujimoto, Shinichiro / Takahashi, Daigo / Nozaki, Yui / Fan, Ruiheng / Kudo, Ayako / Kawaguchi, Yuko / Takamura, Kazuhisa / Hiki, Makoto / Kadowaki, Satoshi / Ikeda, Fuki / Kumamaru, Kanako K / Watada, Hirotaka / Minamino, Tohru / Aoki, Shigeki

American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice

2023 Volume 35, Page(s) 100328

Abstract: Background: We aimed to investigate the diagnostic value of energy loss (EL) and baseline CT fractional flow reserve (CT-FFR) computed using computational fluid dynamics to predict functional progression of coronary stenosis in patients with type 2 ... ...

Abstract	Background: We aimed to investigate the diagnostic value of energy loss (EL) and baseline CT fractional flow reserve (CT-FFR) computed using computational fluid dynamics to predict functional progression of coronary stenosis in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: This single-center prospective study included 61 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (mean age, 61 years ±9 [SD]; 43 men) showing 20-70 % stenosis who underwent serial coronary CT performed at 2-year interval between October 2015 and March 2020. A mesh-free simulation was performed to calculate the CT-FFR and EL. Functional progression was defined as ≥ 0.05 decrease in CT-FFR on the second coronary CT. Models using baseline CT-FFR and EL were compared by analyzing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: Of the 94 vessels evaluated, 25 vessels (27 %) showed functional progression. EL at distal stenosis (EL Conclusion: When EL
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-09-28
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2666-6022
ISSN (online)	2666-6022
DOI	10.1016/j.ahjo.2023.100328
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Article ; Online: Validation and clinical impact of novel pericoronary adipose tissue measurement on ECG-gated non-contrast chest CT.

Takahashi, Daigo / Fujimoto, Shinichiro / Nozaki, Yui O / Kudo, Ayako / Kawaguchi, Yuko O / Takamura, Kazuhisa / Hiki, Makoto / Sato, Hideyuki / Tomizawa, Nobuo / Kumamaru, Kanako K / Aoki, Shigeki / Minamino, Tohru

Atherosclerosis

2023 Volume 370, Page(s) 18–24

Abstract: Background and aims: We aimed to develop a method for quantifying pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) on electrocardiogram (ECG)-gated non-contrast CT (NC-PCAT) and validate its efficacy and prognostic value.: Methods: We retrospectively studied two ... ...

Abstract	Background and aims: We aimed to develop a method for quantifying pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) on electrocardiogram (ECG)-gated non-contrast CT (NC-PCAT) and validate its efficacy and prognostic value. Methods: We retrospectively studied two independent cohorts. PCAT was quantified conventionally. NC-PCAT was defined as the mean CT value of epicardial fat tissue adjacent to right coronary artery ostium on ECG-gated non-contrast CT. In cohort 1 (n = 300), we evaluated the correlation of two methods and the association between NC-PCAT and CT-verified high-risk plaque (HRP). We dichotomized cohort 2 (n = 333) by the median of NC-PCAT, and assessed the prognostic value of NC-PCAT for primary endpoint (all-cause death and non-fatal myocardial infarction) by Cox regression analysis. The median duration of follow-up was 2.9 years. Results: NC-PCAT was correlated with PCAT (r = 0.68, p<0.0001). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, high NC-PCAT (OR:1.06; 95%CI:1.03-1.10; p = 0.0001), coronary artery calcium score (CACS) (OR:1.01 per 10 CACS increase, 95%CI:1.00-1.02; p = 0.013), and current smoking (OR:2.58; 95%CI:1.03-6.49; p = 0.044) were independent predictors of HRP. Among patients with CACS>0 (n = 193), NC-PCAT (OR:1.06; 95%CI:1.03-1.10; p = 0.0002), current smoking (OR:3.02; 95%CI:1.17-7.82; p = 0.027), and male sex (OR:2.81; 95%CI:1.06-7.48; p = 0.028) were independent predictors of HRP, whereas CACS was not (p = 0.15). Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed high NC-PCAT as an independent predictor of the primary endpoint, even after adjustment for sex and age (HR:4.3; 95%CI:1.2-15.2; p = 0.012). Conclusions: There was a positive correlation between NC-PCAT and PCAT, with high NC-PCAT significantly associated with worse clinical outcome (independent of CACS) as well as presence of HRP.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Male ; Coronary Artery Disease/diagnostic imaging ; Coronary Angiography/methods ; Retrospective Studies ; Tomography, X-Ray Computed/methods ; Plaque, Atherosclerotic ; Adipose Tissue/diagnostic imaging ; Electrocardiography ; Computed Tomography Angiography/methods ; Coronary Vessels/diagnostic imaging
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-31
Publishing country	Ireland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	80061-2
ISSN	1879-1484 ; 0021-9150
ISSN (online)	1879-1484
ISSN	0021-9150
DOI	10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2023.01.021
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Article ; Online: Development and Validation of a Modified Three-Dimensional U-Net Deep-Learning Model for Automated Detection of Lung Nodules on Chest CT Images From the Lung Image Database Consortium and Japanese Datasets.

Suzuki, Kazuhiro / Otsuka, Yujiro / Nomura, Yukihiro / Kumamaru, Kanako K / Kuwatsuru, Ryohei / Aoki, Shigeki

Academic radiology

2020 Volume 29 Suppl 2, Page(s) S11–S17

Abstract: Rationale and objectives: A more accurate lung nodule detection algorithm is needed. We developed a modified three-dimensional (3D) U-net deep-learning model for the automated detection of lung nodules on chest CT images. The purpose of this study was ... ...

Abstract	Rationale and objectives: A more accurate lung nodule detection algorithm is needed. We developed a modified three-dimensional (3D) U-net deep-learning model for the automated detection of lung nodules on chest CT images. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the developed modified 3D U-net deep-learning model. Materials and methods: In this Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act-compliant, Institutional Review Board-approved retrospective study, the 3D U-net based deep-learning model was trained using the Lung Image Database Consortium and Image Database Resource Initiative dataset. For internal model validation, we used 89 chest CT scans that were not used for model training. For external model validation, we used 450 chest CT scans taken at an urban university hospital in Japan. Each case included at least one nodule of >5 mm identified by an experienced radiologist. We evaluated model accuracy using the competition performance metric (CPM) (average sensitivity at 1/8, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 2, 4, and 8 false-positives per scan). The 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed by bootstrapping 1000 times. Results: In the internal validation, the CPM was 94.7% (95% CI: 89.1%-98.6%). In the external validation, the CPM was 83.3% (95% CI: 79.4%-86.1%). Conclusion: The modified 3D U-net deep-learning model showed high performance in both internal and external validation.
MeSH term(s)	Deep Learning ; Humans ; Japan ; Lung/diagnostic imaging ; Lung Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging ; Retrospective Studies ; Tomography, X-Ray Computed/methods
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-08-21
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1355509-1
ISSN	1878-4046 ; 1076-6332
ISSN (online)	1878-4046
ISSN	1076-6332
DOI	10.1016/j.acra.2020.07.030
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Article: Multi-agent system collision model to predict the transmission of seasonal influenza in Tokyo from 2014–2015 to 2018–2019 seasons

Tomizawa, Nobuo / Kumamaru, Kanako K. / Okamoto, Koh / Aoki, Shigeki

Heliyon. 2021 Aug., v. 7, no. 8

2021

Abstract	The objective of this study was to apply the multi-agent system (MAS) collision model to predict seasonal influenza epidemic in Tokyo for 5 seasons (2014–2015 to 2018–2019 seasons). The MAS collision model assumes each individual as a particle inside a square domain. The particles move within the domain and disease transmission occurs in a certain probability when an infected particle collides a susceptible particle. The probability was determined based on the basic reproduction number calculated using the actual data. The simulation started with 1 infected particle and 999 susceptible particles to correspond to the onset of an influenza epidemic. We performed the simulation for 150 days and the calculation was repeated 500 times for each season. To improve the accuracy of the prediction, we selected simulations which have similar incidence number to the actual data in specific weeks. Analysis including all simulations corresponded good to the actual data in 2014–2015 and 2015–2016 seasons. However, the model failed to predict the sharp peak incidence after the New Year Holidays in 2016–2017, 2017–2018, and 2018–2019 seasons. A model which included simulations selected by the week of peak incidence predicted the week and number of peak incidence better than a model including all simulations in all seasons. The reproduction number was also similar to the actual data in this model. In conclusion, the MAS collision model predicted the epidemic curve with good accuracy by selecting the simulations using the actual data without changing the initial parameters such as the basic reproduction number and infection time.
Keywords	basic reproduction number ; influenza ; models ; prediction ; probability ; reproduction
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-08
Publishing place	Elsevier Ltd
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	2835763-2
ISSN	2405-8440
ISSN	2405-8440
DOI	10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07859
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Article ; Online: Coronary flow disturbance assessed by vorticity as a cause of functionally significant stenosis.

Tomizawa, Nobuo / Nozaki, Yui / Fujimoto, Shinichiro / Takahashi, Daigo / Kudo, Ayako / Kamo, Yuki / Aoshima, Chihiro / Kawaguchi, Yuko / Takamura, Kazuhisa / Hiki, Makoto / Dohi, Tomotaka / Okazaki, Shinya / Kumamaru, Kanako K / Minamino, Tohru / Aoki, Shigeki

European radiology

2022 Volume 32, Issue 10, Page(s) 6859–6867

Abstract: Objectives: Vorticity calculated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) could assess the flow disturbance generated by coronary stenosis. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether vorticity would be an underlying cause of functionally ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: Vorticity calculated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) could assess the flow disturbance generated by coronary stenosis. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether vorticity would be an underlying cause of functionally significant stenosis assessed by invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR). Methods: This retrospective study included 113 patients who underwent coronary CT angiography showing intermediate stenosis and subsequent invasive FFR between December 2015 and March 2020. Vorticity at the stenosis site was calculated using a mesh-free CFD method. We also evaluated the minimum lumen area (MLA) and diameter stenosis (DS) of the lesion. Invasive FFR of ≤ 0.80 was considered functionally significant. Data were compared using Student's t-test and logistic regression analysis was performed. Results: Of the evaluated 144 vessels, 53 vessels (37%) showed FFR ≤ 0.80. Vorticity of significant stenosis was significantly higher than non-significant stenosis (569 ± 78 vs. 328 ± 34 s Conclusions: Vorticity had a statistically significant negative relationship with invasive FFR independent of geometric stenosis. Key points: • Flow disturbance caused by coronary stenosis could be evaluated by calculating vorticity which is defined as the norm of the rotation of the velocity vector. • Vorticity was statistically significantly higher in stenosis with functional significance than stenosis without. • Vorticity has an additive value to detect functionally significant stenosis over geometrical stenosis.
MeSH term(s)	Constriction, Pathologic/pathology ; Coronary Angiography/methods ; Coronary Stenosis/diagnosis ; Coronary Vessels ; Fractional Flow Reserve, Myocardial ; Humans ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Retrospective Studies ; Severity of Illness Index
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-07-02
Publishing country	Germany
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1085366-2
ISSN	1432-1084 ; 0938-7994 ; 1613-3749
ISSN (online)	1432-1084
ISSN	0938-7994 ; 1613-3749
DOI	10.1007/s00330-022-08974-2
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Article ; Online: Correction to: Global and Japanese regional variations in radiologist potential workload for computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging examinations.

Kumamaru, Kanako K / Machitori, Akihiro / Koba, Ritsuko / Ijichi, Shinpei / Nakajima, Yasuo / Aoki, Shigeki

Japanese journal of radiology

2018 Volume 36, Issue 4, Page(s) 282–284

Abstract: In Results of Abstract, the first sentence should read as: The radiologist potential workload in Japan was 2.78-4.17 times higher than those in other countries. ...

Abstract	In Results of Abstract, the first sentence should read as: The radiologist potential workload in Japan was 2.78-4.17 times higher than those in other countries.
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-03-20
Publishing country	Japan
Document type	Published Erratum
ZDB-ID	2488907-6
ISSN	1867-108X ; 1867-1071
ISSN (online)	1867-108X
ISSN	1867-1071
DOI	10.1007/s11604-018-0730-7
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Article ; Online: A National Survey on Safety Management at MR Imaging Facilities in Japan.

Azuma, Minako / Kumamaru, Kanako K / Hirai, Toshinori / Khant, Zaw Aung / Koba, Ritsuko / Ijichi, Shinpei / Jinzaki, Masahiro / Murayama, Sadayuki / Aoki, Shigeki

Magnetic resonance in medical sciences : MRMS : an official journal of Japan Society of Magnetic Resonance in Medicine

2020 Volume 20, Issue 4, Page(s) 347–358

Abstract: Purpose: To investigate safety management at Japanese facilities performing human MRI studies.: Methods: All Japanese facilities performing human MRI studies were invited to participate in a comprehensive survey that evaluated their MRI safety ... ...

Abstract	Purpose: To investigate safety management at Japanese facilities performing human MRI studies. Methods: All Japanese facilities performing human MRI studies were invited to participate in a comprehensive survey that evaluated their MRI safety management. The survey used a questionnaire prepared with the cooperation of the Safety Committee of the Japanese Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. The survey addressed items pertaining to the overall MRI safety management, questions on the occurrence of incidents, and questions specific to facility and MRI scanner or examination. The survey covered the period from October 2017 to September 2018. Automated machine learning was used to identify factors associated with major incidents. Results: Of 5914 facilities, 2015 (34%) responded to the questionnaire. There was a wide variation in the rate of compliance with MRI safety management items among the participating facilities. Among the facilities responding to this questionnaire, 5% reported major incidents and 27% reported minor incidents related to MRI studies. Most major incidents involved the administration of contrast agents. The most influential factor in major incidents was the total number of MRI studies performed at the facility; this number was significantly correlated with the risk of major incidents (P < 0.0001). Conclusion: There were large variations in the safety standards applied at Japanese facilities performing clinical MRI studies. The total number of MRI studies performed at a facility affected the number of major incidents.
MeSH term(s)	Contrast Media ; Humans ; Japan ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging ; Safety Management ; Surveys and Questionnaires
Chemical Substances	Contrast Media
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-11-26
Publishing country	Japan
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2217833-8
ISSN	1880-2206 ; 1880-2206
ISSN (online)	1880-2206
ISSN	1880-2206
DOI	10.2463/mrms.mp.2020-0084
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