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  1. Article: Analysing Recovery From Pandemics by Learning Theory: The Case of CoVid-19.

    Duffey, Romney B / Zio, Enrico

    IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions

    2020  Volume 8, Page(s) 110789–110795

    Abstract: We present a method for predicting the recovery time from infectious diseases outbreaks such as the recent CoVid-19 virus. The approach is based on the theory of learning from errors, specifically adapted to the control of the virus spread by reducing ... ...

    Abstract We present a method for predicting the recovery time from infectious diseases outbreaks such as the recent CoVid-19 virus. The approach is based on the theory of learning from errors, specifically adapted to the control of the virus spread by reducing infection rates using countermeasures such as medical treatment, isolation, social distancing etc. When these are effective, the infection rate, after reaching a peak, declines following what we call the Universal Recovery Curve. We use presently available data from many countries to make actual predictions of the recovery trend and time needed for securing minimum infection rates in the future. We claim that the trend of decline is direct evidence of learning about risk reduction, also in this case of the pandemic.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-06-10
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2687964-5
    ISSN 2169-3536
    ISSN 2169-3536
    DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3001344
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article: CoVid-19 Pandemic Trend Modeling and Analysis to Support Resilience Decision-Making.

    Duffey, Romney B / Zio, Enrico

    Biology

    2020  Volume 9, Issue 7

    Abstract: Policy decision-making for system resilience to a hazard requires the estimation and prediction of the trends of growth and decline of the impacts of the hazard. With focus on the recent worldwide spread of CoVid-19, we take the infection rate as the ... ...

    Abstract Policy decision-making for system resilience to a hazard requires the estimation and prediction of the trends of growth and decline of the impacts of the hazard. With focus on the recent worldwide spread of CoVid-19, we take the infection rate as the relevant metric whose trend of evolution to follow for verifying the effectiveness of the countermeasures applied. By comparison with the theories of growth and recovery in coupled socio-medical systems, we find that the data for many countries show infection rate trends that are exponential in form. In particular, the recovery trajectory is universal in trend and consistent with the learning theory, which allows for predictions useful in the assistance of decision-making of emergency recovery actions. The findings are validated by extensive data and comparison to medical pandemic models.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-07-07
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2661517-4
    ISSN 2079-7737
    ISSN 2079-7737
    DOI 10.3390/biology9070156
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article: Prediction of CoVid-19 infection, transmission and recovery rates: A new analysis and global societal comparisons.

    Duffey, Romney B / Zio, Enrico

    Safety science

    2020  Volume 129, Page(s) 104854

    Abstract: We analyze the process of infection rate growth and decline for the recent global pandemic, applying a new method to the available global data. We describe and utilize an original approach based on statistical physics to predict the societal transmission ...

    Abstract We analyze the process of infection rate growth and decline for the recent global pandemic, applying a new method to the available global data. We describe and utilize an original approach based on statistical physics to predict the societal transmission timescale and the universal recovery trajectory resulting from the countermeasures implemented in entire societies. We compare the whole-society infection growth rates for many countries and local regions, to illustrate the common physical and mathematical basis for the viral spread and infection rate reduction, and validate the theory and resulting correlations. We show that methods traditionally considered for the numerical analysis and the control of individual virus transmission (e.g. ℜ
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-28
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1074634-1
    ISSN 1879-1042 ; 0925-7535
    ISSN (online) 1879-1042
    ISSN 0925-7535
    DOI 10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104854
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.B 2226: Show issues Location:
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    bis Jg. 2021: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  4. Article ; Online: CoVid-19 Pandemic Trend Modeling and Analysis to Support Resilience Decision-Making

    Romney B Duffey / Enrico Zio

    Biology, Vol 9, Iss 156, p

    2020  Volume 156

    Abstract: Policy decision-making for system resilience to a hazard requires the estimation and prediction of the trends of growth and decline of the impacts of the hazard. With focus on the recent worldwide spread of CoVid-19, we take the infection rate as the ... ...

    Abstract Policy decision-making for system resilience to a hazard requires the estimation and prediction of the trends of growth and decline of the impacts of the hazard. With focus on the recent worldwide spread of CoVid-19, we take the infection rate as the relevant metric whose trend of evolution to follow for verifying the effectiveness of the countermeasures applied. By comparison with the theories of growth and recovery in coupled socio-medical systems, we find that the data for many countries show infection rate trends that are exponential in form. In particular, the recovery trajectory is universal in trend and consistent with the learning theory, which allows for predictions useful in the assistance of decision-making of emergency recovery actions. The findings are validated by extensive data and comparison to medical pandemic models.
    Keywords CoVid-19 ; infection rates ; transmission ; incubation ; growth ; theory ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-07-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article: Dynamic theory of losses in wars and conflicts

    Duffey, Romney B

    European journal of operational research : EJOR Vol. 261, No. 3 , p. 1013-1027

    2017  Volume 261, Issue 3, Page(s) 1013–1027

    Author's details Romney B Duffey
    Keywords OR in defense ; Dynamic loss rates ; Risk management ; Learning theory ; Warfare
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier
    Publishing place Amsterdam
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 243003-4
    ISSN 0377-2217
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  6. Article ; Online: Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19

    Duffey, Romney B. / Zio, Enrico

    Abstract: We present a method for predicting the recovery time from infectious diseases outbreaks such as the recent CoVid-19 virus. The approach is based on the theory of learning from errors, specifically adapted to the control of the virus spread by reducing ... ...

    Abstract We present a method for predicting the recovery time from infectious diseases outbreaks such as the recent CoVid-19 virus. The approach is based on the theory of learning from errors, specifically adapted to the control of the virus spread by reducing infection rates using countermeasures such as medical treatment, isolation, social distancing etc. When these are effective, the infection rate, after reaching a peak, declines following a given recovery rate curve. We use presently available data from China, South Korea and others to make actual predictions of the time needed for securing minimum infection rates in the future.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher MedRxiv; WHO
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.04.10.20060319
    Database COVID19

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  7. Article ; Online: Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19

    Duffey, Romney B. / Zio, Enrico

    medRxiv

    Abstract: We present a method for predicting the recovery time from infectious diseases outbreaks such as the recent CoVid-19 virus. The approach is based on the theory of learning from errors, specifically adapted to the control of the virus spread by reducing ... ...

    Abstract We present a method for predicting the recovery time from infectious diseases outbreaks such as the recent CoVid-19 virus. The approach is based on the theory of learning from errors, specifically adapted to the control of the virus spread by reducing infection rates using countermeasures such as medical treatment, isolation, social distancing etc. When these are effective, the infection rate, after reaching a peak, declines following a given recovery rate curve. We use presently available data from China, South Korea and others to make actual predictions of the time needed for securing minimum infection rates in the future.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-14
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.04.10.20060319
    Database COVID19

    Full text online

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    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

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  8. Article: COVID-19 pandemic trend modeling and analysis to support resilience decision-making

    Duffey, Romney B. / Zio, Enrico

    Biology

    Abstract: Policy decision-making for system resilience to a hazard requires the estimation and prediction of the trends of growth and decline of the impacts of the hazard. With focus on the recent worldwide spread of CoVid-19, we take the infection rate as the ... ...

    Abstract Policy decision-making for system resilience to a hazard requires the estimation and prediction of the trends of growth and decline of the impacts of the hazard. With focus on the recent worldwide spread of CoVid-19, we take the infection rate as the relevant metric whose trend of evolution to follow for verifying the effectiveness of the countermeasures applied. By comparison with the theories of growth and recovery in coupled socio-medical systems, we find that the data for many countries show infection rate trends that are exponential in form. In particular, the recovery trajectory is universal in trend and consistent with the learning theory, which allows for predictions useful in the assistance of decision-making of emergency recovery actions. The findings are validated by extensive data and comparison to medical pandemic models.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #638832
    Database COVID19

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    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

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  9. Article: Prediction of CoVid-19 infection, transmission and recovery rates: A new analysis and global societal comparisons

    Duffey, Romney B. / Zio, Enrico

    Saf. Sci.

    Abstract: We analyze the process of infection rate growth and decline for the recent global pandemic, applying a new method to the available global data. We describe and utilize an original approach based on statistical physics to predict the societal transmission ...

    Abstract We analyze the process of infection rate growth and decline for the recent global pandemic, applying a new method to the available global data. We describe and utilize an original approach based on statistical physics to predict the societal transmission timescale and the universal recovery trajectory resulting from the countermeasures implemented in entire societies. We compare the whole-society infection growth rates for many countries and local regions, to illustrate the common physical and mathematical basis for the viral spread and infection rate reduction, and validate the theory and resulting correlations. We show that methods traditionally considered for the numerical analysis and the control of individual virus transmission (e.g. ℜ0scaling) represent one special case of the theory, and also compare our results to the available IHME computer model outcomes. We proceed to illustrate several interesting features of the different approaches to the mitigation of the pandemic, related to social isolation and “lockdown” tactics. Finally, we use presently available data from many countries to make actual predictions of the time needed for securing minimum infection rates in the future, highlighting the differences that emerge between isolated “islands” and mobile cities, and identifying the desired overall recovery trajectory.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #401698
    Database COVID19

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  10. Book: Managing risk

    Duffey, Romney B / Saull, John W

    the human element

    2008  

    Author's details by Romney B. Duffey; John W. Saull
    Keywords Industrial accidents ; Industrial safety
    Language English
    Size XXVII, 539 S, Ill., graph. Darst, 25 cm
    Publisher Wiley
    Publishing place Chichester
    Document type Book
    Note Includes bibliographical references and index
    ISBN 0470699760 ; 9780470699768
    Database Library catalogue of the German National Library of Science and Technology (TIB), Hannover

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