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  1. Article ; Online: Revisión del concepto de inmunidad poblacional, a propósito de la epidemia COVID-19 y del desarrollo de vacunas.

    Canals L, Mauricio

    Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia

    2021  Volume 38, Issue 4, Page(s) 495–499

    Abstract: The concept of herd immunity is briefly reviewed, showing that some popularized ideas do not correspond to the original concept. The relationship with the basic and effective reproductive numbers is established. It is pointed out that the threshold for ... ...

    Title translation Review of the concept of herd immunity, in the context of COVID-19 epidemic and the development of vaccines.
    Abstract The concept of herd immunity is briefly reviewed, showing that some popularized ideas do not correspond to the original concept. The relationship with the basic and effective reproductive numbers is established. It is pointed out that the threshold for the herd effect does not indicate the number of individuals that will be infected in an epidemic. The relationship with the effective vaccination threshold and its relationship with the effectiveness of the vaccine are established. The reducing effect of the herd immunity threshold produced by the heterogeneity of transmission and mixing in the population and the existence of isolated subpopulations are analyzed, which could be important and could explain the low levels of post-epidemic seroprevalence in some places helping to mitigate new outbreaks.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Epidemics ; Humans ; Immunity, Herd ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Seroepidemiologic Studies ; Vaccination ; Vaccines
    Chemical Substances Vaccines
    Language Spanish
    Publishing date 2021-10-16
    Publishing country Chile
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2048815-4
    ISSN 0717-6341 ; 0716-1018
    ISSN (online) 0717-6341
    ISSN 0716-1018
    DOI 10.4067/S0716-10182021000400495
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Conceptos para una buena toma de decisiones en la pandemia COVID-19 en Chile.

    Canals L, Mauricio

    Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia

    2020  Volume 37, Issue 2, Page(s) 170–172

    Title translation Concepts for good decision-making in the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile.
    MeSH term(s) Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Chile/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Decision Making ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language Spanish
    Publishing date 2020-07-30
    Publishing country Chile
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2048815-4
    ISSN 0717-6341 ; 0716-1018
    ISSN (online) 0717-6341
    ISSN 0716-1018
    DOI 10.4067/s0716-10182020000200170
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Bases científicas del razonamiento clínico: inferencia Bayesiana.

    Canals L, Mauricio

    Revista medica de Chile

    2019  Volume 147, Issue 2, Page(s) 231–237

    Abstract: A conceptual analysis of diagnostic reasoning in clinical practice is carried out. Using Bayesian inference as an alternative to frequentist inference usually used in science, clinical reasoning uses the scientific method step by step. The concepts of ... ...

    Title translation Bayesian inference in clinical reasoning.
    Abstract A conceptual analysis of diagnostic reasoning in clinical practice is carried out. Using Bayesian inference as an alternative to frequentist inference usually used in science, clinical reasoning uses the scientific method step by step. The concepts of scientific method, probability, statistics and Bayesian inference are reviewed, highlighting their fundamental differences with the frequentist approach. This paper shows how the diagnostic approach proceeds in a Bayesian sense, ending with a basic example of application.
    MeSH term(s) Algorithms ; Bayes Theorem ; Clinical Decision-Making/methods ; Diagnosis, Differential ; Humans
    Language Spanish
    Publishing date 2019-05-14
    Publishing country Chile
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 732136-3
    ISSN 0717-6163 ; 0034-9887
    ISSN (online) 0717-6163
    ISSN 0034-9887
    DOI 10.4067/s0034-98872019000200231
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

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  5. Article ; Online: Estimación del número reproductivo efectivo del brote de sarampión 2018-2019 en Chile.

    Canals, Mauricio / Gallegos, Doris / Avendaño, L Fidel

    Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia

    2020  Volume 37, Issue 3, Page(s) 231–236

    Abstract: Background: Measles cases are reemerging in many countries across the globe. There was an outbreak of imported measles between November 2018 and February 2019 in Chile, raising concern among the public and health authorities. Many were worried about the ...

    Title translation Estimation of the effective reproduction number of measles 2018-2019 in Chile.
    Abstract Background: Measles cases are reemerging in many countries across the globe. There was an outbreak of imported measles between November 2018 and February 2019 in Chile, raising concern among the public and health authorities. Many were worried about the Chilean measles herd immunity, a factor that relates to the reproductive capacity of the virus (measure of transmissibility of a pathogen).
    Aim: Here we estimate the effective reproductive number (Re) of this measles outbreak.
    Results: Although the estimate is highly uncertain due to the low number of cases and the absence of homogeneous mixing of the population, we found Re was approximately 1.5.
    Discussion and conclusions: Consequently we estimated about 90,3 % had measles immunity, consistent with administrative estimates from the Ministry of Health. These results suggest the Chilean population has established herd immunity against the introduction of imported measles cases, reflecting adequate preventive management of this disease.
    MeSH term(s) Chile ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Immunity, Herd ; Measles ; Measles Vaccine ; Vaccination
    Chemical Substances Measles Vaccine
    Language Spanish
    Publishing date 2020-08-27
    Publishing country Chile
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2048815-4
    ISSN 0717-6341 ; 0716-1018
    ISSN (online) 0717-6341
    ISSN 0716-1018
    DOI 10.4067/s0716-10182020000300231
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  6. Article: Predictibilidad a corto plazo del número de casos de la influenza pandémica AH1N1 basada en modelos determinísticos.

    Canals L, Mauricio

    Revista chilena de infectología : órgano oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectología

    2010  Volume 27, Issue 2, Page(s) 119–125

    Abstract: Influenza AH1N1 severely affected the population of Chile. It has high transmissibility, which may stress the health system capacity. An adequate prediction of number of cases and frequency of complications is needed. Chilean and OMS dialy reports of ... ...

    Title translation Short-term predictability of influenza AH1N1 cases based on deterministic models.
    Abstract Influenza AH1N1 severely affected the population of Chile. It has high transmissibility, which may stress the health system capacity. An adequate prediction of number of cases and frequency of complications is needed. Chilean and OMS dialy reports of cases from April to Jun 2009 were analyzed in this study. We developed a simple methodology for short-term forecast of case number, based on deterministic models. Predicted and observed values were compared with regression analyses and Bland-Altman diagrams. We found that the intrinsic rate of increase of the number of cases in the world and in Chile, after an initial high instability, decreases to stable valúes, allowing a relatively accurate forecasting the next day and for a serial period. The estimators obtained are over-estimators, which allow an adequate safety factor for the estimations. The method is easy to implement in software for routine use and can be useful in monitoring this epidemic and others in the future.
    MeSH term(s) Chile/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; Humans ; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Influenza, Human/virology ; Models, Theoretical
    Language Spanish
    Publishing date 2010-04
    Publishing country Chile
    Document type English Abstract ; Journal Article
    ISSN 0716-1018
    ISSN 0716-1018
    DOI /S0716-10182010000200003
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  7. Article: Inicio de la pandemia A(H1N1): Algebra, cálculo y geometría del contagio.

    Canals L, Mauricio

    Revista medica de Chile

    2009  Volume 137, Issue 6, Page(s) 854–856

    Title translation Algebra, calculus and geometry of contagion at the early evolution of a A (H1N1) pandemic spread.
    MeSH term(s) Chile/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Mathematical Concepts
    Language Spanish
    Publishing date 2009-06
    Publishing country Chile
    Document type Letter
    ZDB-ID 732136-3
    ISSN 0717-6163 ; 0034-9887
    ISSN (online) 0717-6163
    ISSN 0034-9887
    DOI /S0034-98872009000600019
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.B 402: Show issues Location:
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  8. Article ; Online: Estimation of the Effect of the Predator Scytodes globula (Araneae: Scytodidae) on Loxosceles laeta (Araneae: Sicariidae) Populations.

    Canals, Mauricio / Moreno, Lucila / Solís, Rigoberto

    Environmental entomology

    2016  Volume 45, Issue 4, Page(s) 841–847

    Abstract: ... on the population dynamics of L. laeta by means of simulation with projection matrices, considering the seasonal fluctuation ... of fecundity, random meetings between the predator and the prey, and limited growth of the L. laeta population ... of reproductive individuals of L. laeta The most probable effect of S. globula on L. laeta populations is ...

    Abstract It has been reported that Scytodes spiders are predators of spiders of the genus Loxosceles, but the question of the effect of Scytodes globula Nicolet on Loxosceles laeta (Nicolet) populations is still unanswered. The goal of this study is to analyze the population effect of S. globula on the population dynamics of L. laeta by means of simulation with projection matrices, considering the seasonal fluctuation of fecundity, random meetings between the predator and the prey, and limited growth of the L. laeta population. We found that the most important parameters to predict the characteristics of the population at equilibrium are the fertility and the survival function of the spider of advanced developmental stage. Also, the predator S. globula significantly decreases population size, population fluctuations, and the proportion of reproductive individuals of L. laeta The most probable effect of S. globula on L. laeta populations is a decrease of 20% of the population size. This is insufficient to consider this species as an agent of biological control of L. laeta However, the action of S. globula is not negligible because decreasing the L. laeta population by about 20% could mean a decrease of about 15% in the incidence of loxoscelism. This action is probably less effective than other epidemiological measures such as house cleaning and insecticides or arachnicides and probably similar to the direct action of humans eliminating one or two spiders per year in their houses, but it helps.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Fertility ; Food Chain ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; Seasons ; Spiders/physiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2016
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 120799-4
    ISSN 1938-2936 ; 0046-2268 ; 0046-225X
    ISSN (online) 1938-2936
    ISSN 0046-2268 ; 0046-225X
    DOI 10.1093/ee/nvw075
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Bonn / Germany

    Z 2779: Show issues

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  9. Article: Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile.

    Canals L, Mauricio

    Revista medica de Chile

    2010  Volume 138, Issue 9, Page(s) 1186–1196

    Abstract: In order to increase awareness of the pandemic and to streamline control measures before any new outbreak of influenza we analyze the behavior of the cases of Chile and from 9 countries with more cases in 2009. Reproductive numbers, doubling times and ... ...

    Title translation Comparative analysis of A(H1N1) influenza epidemiological dynamics in Chile.
    Abstract In order to increase awareness of the pandemic and to streamline control measures before any new outbreak of influenza we analyze the behavior of the cases of Chile and from 9 countries with more cases in 2009. Reproductive numbers, doubling times and estimations of susceptible and infected at the end of the epidemic were estimated. Epidemic curves to the situation in Chile under different initial conditions were adjusted and simulations for different reproductive numbers and notification scenarios were performed. The reproductive numbers varied between 1.37 and 1.82, with doubling times of between 5 and 8 days at 30 days of the epidemic. According to this, the proportions of infected by the end of the epidemic vary between 58% and 78.5%. The transmission coefficient ranged from 2 to 132 new cases per day x 10(6) susceptible individuals. The adjustments showed that the onset of the epidemic probably had more cases than reported. All estimates suggest that there must have been a large number of susceptible and therefore can not be explained as small outbreaks in 2009. A large number of susceptible individuals may still exist who are at risk from a possible new outbreak.
    MeSH term(s) Adolescent ; Adult ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Chile/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/isolation & purification ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Influenza, Human/transmission ; Middle Aged ; Population Surveillance ; Young Adult
    Language Spanish
    Publishing date 2010-09
    Publishing country Chile
    Document type Comparative Study ; English Abstract ; Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 732136-3
    ISSN 0717-6163 ; 0034-9887
    ISSN (online) 0717-6163
    ISSN 0034-9887
    DOI /S0034-98872010000900016
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.B 402: Show issues Location:
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  10. Article ; Online: Inicio de la pandemia A(H1N1)

    Mauricio Canals L

    Revista Médica de Chile, Vol 137, Iss 6, Pp 854-

    Álgebra, cálculo y geometría del contagio Algebra, calculus and geometry of contagion at the early evolution of a A (H1N1) pandemic spread

    2009  Volume 856

    Keywords Medicine (General) ; R5-920 ; Medicine ; R ; DOAJ:Medicine (General) ; DOAJ:Health Sciences
    Language Spanish
    Publishing date 2009-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Sociedad Médica de Santiago
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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