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  1. Article ; Online: The costs of "costless" climate mitigation.

    Kotchen, Matthew J / Rising, James A / Wagner, Gernot

    Science (New York, N.Y.)

    2023  Volume 382, Issue 6674, Page(s) 1001–1003

    Abstract: The IPCC and leading economic models have different ideas about emissions reduction costs. ...

    Abstract The IPCC and leading economic models have different ideas about emissions reduction costs.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-11-30
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 128410-1
    ISSN 1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
    ISSN (online) 1095-9203
    ISSN 0036-8075
    DOI 10.1126/science.adj2453
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  2. Article: Decision-making and integrated assessment models of the water-energy-food nexus

    Rising, James

    Water Security. 2020 Apr., v. 9

    2020  

    Abstract: Studying trade-offs in the long-term development of water-energy-food systems requires a new family of hydroeconomic optimization models. This article reviews the central considerations behind these models, highlighting the importance of water ... ...

    Abstract Studying trade-offs in the long-term development of water-energy-food systems requires a new family of hydroeconomic optimization models. This article reviews the central considerations behind these models, highlighting the importance of water infrastructure, the foundations of a theory of decision-making, and the handling of uncertainty. Integrated assessment models (IAMs), used in climate change policy research, provide insights that can support this development. In particular, IAM approaches to intertemporal decision-making and economic valuation can improve existing models. At the same time, IAMs have weaknesses identified elsewhere and can benefit from the development of hydroeconomic models, which have complementary strengths.
    Keywords decision making ; economic valuation ; environmental policy ; infrastructure ; models ; uncertainty ; water security
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2020-04
    Publishing place Elsevier B.V.
    Document type Article
    ISSN 2468-3124
    DOI 10.1016/j.wasec.2019.100056
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  3. Article ; Online: Reply to Keen et al.: Dietz et al. modeling of climate tipping points is informative even if estimates are a probable lower bound.

    Dietz, Simon / Rising, James / Stoerk, Thomas / Wagner, Gernot

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

    2022  Volume 119, Issue 21, Page(s) e2201191119

    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-05-19
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Letter ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 209104-5
    ISSN 1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
    ISSN (online) 1091-6490
    ISSN 0027-8424
    DOI 10.1073/pnas.2201191119
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  4. Article ; Online: Weather drives variation in COVID-19 transmission and detection

    James Rising / Manuel Linsenmeier / Ana De Menezes

    Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 2, Iss 1, p

    2023  Volume 011001

    Abstract: The debate over the influence of weather on COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics remains unsettled as multiple factors are conflated, including viral biology, transmission through social interaction, and the probability of disease detection. Here we ... ...

    Abstract The debate over the influence of weather on COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics remains unsettled as multiple factors are conflated, including viral biology, transmission through social interaction, and the probability of disease detection. Here we distinguish the distinct dynamics of weather on detection and transmission with a multi-method approach combining econometric techniques with epidemiological models, including an extension of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, to analyse data for over 4000 geographic units throughout the year 2020. We find distinct and significant effects of temperature, thermal comfort, solar radiation, and precipitation on the growth of infections. We also find that weather affects the rates of both disease transmission and detection. When we isolate transmission effects to understand the potential for seasonal shifts, the instantaneous effects of weather are small, with R0 about 0.007 higher in winter than in summer. However, the effects of weather compound over time, so that a region with a 5 ^∘ C drop over three months in winter is expected to have 190% more confirmed cases at the end of that 90 days period, relative to a scenario with constant temperature. We also find that the contribution of weather produces the largest effects in high-latitude countries. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve and risks becoming endemic, these seasonal dynamics may play a crucial role for health policy.
    Keywords COVID-19 ; temperature ; seasonal cycles ; Bayesian modeling ; transmission ; detection ; Meteorology. Climatology ; QC851-999 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher IOP Publishing
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article: The importance of infrastructure and national demand to represent constraints on water supply in the United States

    Rising, James / Josset, Laureline / Troy, Tara / Lall, Upmanu

    Global environmental change. 2022 Mar., v. 73

    2022  

    Abstract: Water stress in many regions is a consequence of precipitation that is spatially and temporally distant and the cumulative effects of withdrawals, inter-basin transfers, and reservoirs. Most maps of “water risk” do not account for the role of ... ...

    Abstract Water stress in many regions is a consequence of precipitation that is spatially and temporally distant and the cumulative effects of withdrawals, inter-basin transfers, and reservoirs. Most maps of “water risk” do not account for the role of infrastructure and rely on local runoff metrics, which may be a poor proxy for experienced water stress. We present a new spatial and multi-sectoral optimization model of resource networks, applied here to water resources in the United States. The model, AWASH, includes a detailed representation of surface water and reservoirs, and relates water risk directly to failures to meet water demand as a function of climate. We find that considering the role of water conveyance and storage infrastructure in managing supply leads to a radically different picture of water risk, with substantial reductions due to both types of infrastructure – up to 60% reduction in risk due to conveyance and 38% due to storage. This highlights the importance of accounting of the role of infrastructure in national climate risk assessment and adaptation strategies.
    Keywords climate ; global change ; infrastructure ; models ; risk ; risk assessment ; runoff ; surface water ; water stress ; water supply
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2022-03
    Publishing place Elsevier Ltd
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 30436-0
    ISSN 1056-9367 ; 0959-3780
    ISSN 1056-9367 ; 0959-3780
    DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102468
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  6. Article ; Online: Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5.

    Rising, James / Devineni, Naresh

    Nature communications

    2020  Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 4991

    Abstract: A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the ... ...

    Abstract A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation. The fitted model parameters provide evidence of considerable existing climate adaptation across counties. If crop locations are held constant in the future, total agriculture profits for the six crops will drop by 31% for the temperature patterns of 2070 under RCP 8.5. When crop lands are reallocated to avoid yield decreases and take advantage of yield increases, half of these losses are avoided (16% loss), but 57% of counties are allocated crops different from those currently planted. Our results provide a framework for identifying crop adaptation opportunities, but suggest limits to their potential.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-10-05
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2553671-0
    ISSN 2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
    ISSN (online) 2041-1723
    ISSN 2041-1723
    DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-18725-w
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  7. Article ; Online: Interbasin water transfers in the United States and Canada.

    Siddik, Md Abu Bakar / Dickson, Kerim E / Rising, James / Ruddell, Benjamin L / Marston, Landon T

    Scientific data

    2023  Volume 10, Issue 1, Page(s) 27

    Abstract: Interbasin water transfers (IBTs) can have a significant impact on the environment, water availability, and economies within the basins importing and exporting water, as well as basins downstream of these water transfers. The lack of comprehensive data ... ...

    Abstract Interbasin water transfers (IBTs) can have a significant impact on the environment, water availability, and economies within the basins importing and exporting water, as well as basins downstream of these water transfers. The lack of comprehensive data identifying and describing IBTs inhibits understanding of the role IBTs play in supplying water for society, as well as their collective hydrologic impact. We develop three connected datasets inventorying IBTs in the United States and Canada, including their features, geospatial details, and water transfer volumes. We surveyed the academic and gray literature, as well as local, state, and federal water agencies, to collect, process, and verify IBTs in Canada and the United States. Our comprehensive IBT datasets represent all known transfers of untreated water that cross subregion (US) or subdrainage area (CA) boundaries, characterizing a total of 641 IBT projects. The infrastructure-level data made available by these data products can be used to close water budgets, connect water supplies to water use, and better represent human impacts within hydrologic and ecosystem models.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-01-13
    Publishing country England
    Document type Dataset ; Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2775191-0
    ISSN 2052-4463 ; 2052-4463
    ISSN (online) 2052-4463
    ISSN 2052-4463
    DOI 10.1038/s41597-023-01935-4
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  8. Article ; Online: The missing risks of climate change.

    Rising, James / Tedesco, Marco / Piontek, Franziska / Stainforth, David A

    Nature

    2022  Volume 610, Issue 7933, Page(s) 643–651

    Abstract: The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions of people. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified. Here we ... ...

    Abstract The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions of people. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified. Here we argue that these unquantified, poorly understood and often deeply uncertain risks can and should be included in economic evaluations and decision-making processes. We present an overview of these unquantified risks and an ontology of them founded on the reasons behind their lack of robust evaluation. These consist of risks missing owing to delays in sharing knowledge and expertise across disciplines, spatial and temporal variations of climate impacts, feedbacks and interactions between risks, deep uncertainty in our knowledge, and currently unidentified risks. We highlight collaboration needs within and between the natural and social science communities to address these gaps. We also provide an approach for integrating assessments or speculations of these risks in a way that accounts for interdependencies, avoids double counting and makes assumptions clear. Multiple paths exist for engaging with these missing risks, with both model-based quantification and non-model-based qualitative assessments playing crucial roles. A wide range of climate impacts are understudied or challenging to quantify, and are missing from current evaluations of the climate risks to lives and livelihoods. Strong interdisciplinary collaboration and deeper engagement with uncertainty is needed to properly inform policymakers and the public about climate risks.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Climate Change/economics ; Climate Change/statistics & numerical data ; Uncertainty ; Social Sciences ; Risk Assessment ; Natural Science Disciplines ; Climate Models ; Models, Economic ; Policy Making
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-10-26
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Review
    ZDB-ID 120714-3
    ISSN 1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
    ISSN (online) 1476-4687
    ISSN 0028-0836
    DOI 10.1038/s41586-022-05243-6
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  9. Article ; Online: Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system.

    Dietz, Simon / Rising, James / Stoerk, Thomas / Wagner, Gernot

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

    2021  Volume 118, Issue 34

    Abstract: ... includes national-level climate damages from rising temperatures and sea levels for 180 countries ...

    Abstract Climate scientists have long emphasized the importance of climate tipping points like thawing permafrost, ice sheet disintegration, and changes in atmospheric circulation. Yet, save for a few fragmented studies, climate economics has either ignored them or represented them in highly stylized ways. We provide unified estimates of the economic impacts of all eight climate tipping points covered in the economic literature so far using a meta-analytic integrated assessment model (IAM) with a modular structure. The model includes national-level climate damages from rising temperatures and sea levels for 180 countries, calibrated on detailed econometric evidence and simulation modeling. Collectively, climate tipping points increase the social cost of carbon (SCC) by ∼25% in our main specification. The distribution is positively skewed, however. We estimate an ∼10% chance of climate tipping points more than doubling the SCC. Accordingly, climate tipping points increase global economic risk. A spatial analysis shows that they increase economic losses almost everywhere. The tipping points with the largest effects are dissociation of ocean methane hydrates and thawing permafrost. Most of our numbers are probable underestimates, given that some tipping points, tipping point interactions, and impact channels have not been covered in the literature so far; however, our method of structural meta-analysis means that future modeling of climate tipping points can be integrated with relative ease, and we present a reduced-form tipping points damage function that could be incorporated in other IAMs.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-08-15
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 209104-5
    ISSN 1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
    ISSN (online) 1091-6490
    ISSN 0027-8424
    DOI 10.1073/pnas.2103081118
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  10. Article ; Online: Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

    James Rising / Naresh Devineni

    Nature Communications, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2020  Volume 7

    Abstract: ... Here, Rising and Devineni use data-driven Bayesian modelling to estimate the potential for crop ...

    Abstract Switching and relocating crops could be a key pathway for agricultural adaptation to climate change. Here, Rising and Devineni use data-driven Bayesian modelling to estimate the potential for crop switching to mitigate climate impacts on US crop production under a high-emission scenario, showing considerable opportunities but also limitations.
    Keywords Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Publishing Group
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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