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Article ; Online: Stopping a reaction-diffusion front.

Caputo, Jean-Guy / Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Sarels, Benoît

2021 Volume 103, Issue 3-1, Page(s) 32210

Abstract: We revisit the problem of pinning a reaction-diffusion front by a defect, in particular by a reaction-free region. Using collective variables for the front and numerical simulations, we compare the behaviors of a bistable and monostable front. A bistable ...

Abstract	We revisit the problem of pinning a reaction-diffusion front by a defect, in particular by a reaction-free region. Using collective variables for the front and numerical simulations, we compare the behaviors of a bistable and monostable front. A bistable front can be pinned as confirmed by a pinning criterion, the analysis of the time independent problem, and simulations. Conversely, a monostable front can never be pinned, it gives rise to a secondary pulse past the defect and we calculate the time this pulse takes to appear. These radically different behaviors of bistable and monostable fronts raise issues for modelers in particular areas of biology, as for example, the study of tumor growth in the presence of different tissues.
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-16
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2844562-4
ISSN	2470-0053 ; 2470-0045
ISSN (online)	2470-0053
ISSN	2470-0045
DOI	10.1103/PhysRevE.103.032210
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Applying a multi-strain dengue model to epidemics data.

de Araújo, Robert G S / Jorge, Daniel C P / Dorn, Rejane C / Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Esteva, M Lourdes M / Pinho, Suani T R

Mathematical biosciences

2023 Volume 360, Page(s) 109013

Abstract: Dengue disease transmission is a complex vector-borne disease, mainly due to the co-circulation of four serotypes of the virus. Mathematical models have proved to be a useful tool to understand the complexity of this disease. In this work, we extend the ... ...

Abstract	Dengue disease transmission is a complex vector-borne disease, mainly due to the co-circulation of four serotypes of the virus. Mathematical models have proved to be a useful tool to understand the complexity of this disease. In this work, we extend the model studied by Esteva et al., 2003, originally proposed for two serotypes, to four circulating serotypes. Using epidemic data of dengue fever in Iquitos (Peru) and San Juan (Puerto Rico), we estimate numerically the co-circulation parameter values for selected outbreaks using a bootstrap method, and we also obtained the Basic Reproduction Number, R
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Dengue ; Dengue Virus ; Epidemics ; Disease Outbreaks ; Serogroup
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-04-29
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1126-5
ISSN	1879-3134 ; 0025-5564
ISSN (online)	1879-3134
ISSN	0025-5564
DOI	10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109013
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Article: DISPERSION OF A NEW CORONAVIRUS SARS-COV-2 BY AIRLINES IN 2020: TEMPORAL ESTIMATES OF THE OUTBREAK IN MEXICO.

Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Bustamante-Castañeda, José F / Caputo, Jean G / Jiménez-Corona, María E / Ponce-de-León-Rosales, Samuel

Revista de investigacion clinica; organo del Hospital de Enfermedades de la Nutricion

2020 Volume 72, Issue 3, Page(s) 138–143

Abstract: Background: On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Regardless of this measure, the new infection has spread to several countries around the world.: Objective: We developed a method to ... ...

Abstract	Background: On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Regardless of this measure, the new infection has spread to several countries around the world. Objective: We developed a method to study the dissemination of this infection by airline routes and provide estimations of the time of arrival of the outbreak to different cities. Methods: Using the Kermack and McKendrick model complemented with diffusion on a graph composed of nodes and edges, we made an analysis of COVID-19 dispersion to other cities by air travel. Results: The estimation was accurate in that it was possible to predict in the middle of February 2020 the arrival of the first outbreak in Mexico, which eventually occurred between March 20 and 30. This estimation was robust with respect to small changes in epidemiological parameters at the other nodes. Conclusions: The estimation of the time of arrival of the outbreak from its epicenter, allows for a time period to implement and strengthen preventive measures aimed at the general population as well as to strengthen hospital infrastructure and training of human resources. In the present study, this estimation was accurate, as observed from the real data of the beginning of the outbreak in Mexico City up to April 6, 2020.
MeSH term(s)	Air Travel ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; China/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control ; Geography, Medical ; Humans ; Mexico/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Time Factors ; Travel-Related Illness ; Urban Health
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-06-25
Publishing country	Mexico
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	138348-6
ISSN	0034-8376
ISSN	0034-8376
DOI	10.24875/RIC.20000113
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Article ; Online: Vaccination strategies for SIR vector-transmitted diseases.

Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Esteva, Lourdes / Vargas, Cristobal

Bulletin of mathematical biology

2014 Volume 76, Issue 8, Page(s) 2073–2090

Abstract: Vector-borne diseases are one of the major public health problems in the world with the fastest spreading rate. Control measures have been focused on vector control, with poor results in most cases. Vaccines should help to reduce the diseases incidence, ... ...

Abstract	Vector-borne diseases are one of the major public health problems in the world with the fastest spreading rate. Control measures have been focused on vector control, with poor results in most cases. Vaccines should help to reduce the diseases incidence, but vaccination strategies should also be defined. In this work, we propose a vector-transmitted SIR disease model with age-structured population subject to a vaccination program. We find an expression for the age-dependent basic reproductive number R(0), and we show that the disease-free equilibrium is locally stable for R(0) ≤ 1, and a unique endemic equilibrium exists for R(0) > 1. We apply the theoretical results to public data to evaluate vaccination strategies, immunization levels, and optimal age of vaccination for dengue disease.
MeSH term(s)	Age Factors ; Animals ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Computer Simulation ; Dengue/immunology ; Dengue/prevention & control ; Dengue/virology ; Dengue Vaccines/immunology ; Dengue Virus/immunology ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/immunology ; Insect Vectors/virology ; Models, Immunological ; Vaccination/methods ; Vaccination/standards
Chemical Substances	Dengue Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-08
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	184905-0
ISSN	1522-9602 ; 0007-4985 ; 0092-8240
ISSN (online)	1522-9602
ISSN	0007-4985 ; 0092-8240
DOI	10.1007/s11538-014-9999-6
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Article ; Online: Multi-species interactions in West Nile virus infection.

Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Esteva, Lourdes / Vargas, Cristobal

Journal of biological dynamics

2012 Volume 6, Page(s) 281–298

Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the interaction of different species of birds and mosquitoes on the dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) infection. We study the different transmission efficiencies of the vectors and birds and the impact on the possible outbreaks. ...

Abstract	In this paper, we analyse the interaction of different species of birds and mosquitoes on the dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) infection. We study the different transmission efficiencies of the vectors and birds and the impact on the possible outbreaks. We show that the basic reproductive number is the weighted mean of the basic reproductive number of each species, weighted by the relative abundance of its population in the location. These results suggest a possible explanation of why there are no outbreaks of WNV in Mexico.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Birds/virology ; Culicidae/virology ; Insect Vectors/virology ; North America/epidemiology ; Population Density ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; West Nile Fever/transmission ; West Nile Fever/virology ; West Nile virus/physiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2012
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ISSN	1751-3766
ISSN (online)	1751-3766
DOI	10.1080/17513758.2011.571721
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Article ; Online: Knowledge, attitudes, perceptions, and COVID-19 hesitancy in a large public university in Mexico city during the early vaccination rollout.

Mongua-Rodríguez, Norma / Rodríguez-Álvarez, Mauricio / De-la-Rosa-Zamboni, Daniela / Jiménez-Corona, María Eugenia / Castañeda-Cediel, Martha Lucía / Miranda-Novales, Guadalupe / Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Ferreira-Guerrero, Elizabeth / Ferreyra-Reyes, Leticia / Delgado-Sánchez, Guadalupe / Martínez-Hernández, Maribel / Cruz-Salgado, Arturo / Pérez-Padilla, Rogelio / Ponce-de-León, Samuel / García-García, Lourdes

BMC public health

2022 Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 1853

Abstract: Background: Vaccination against COVID-19 is a primary tool for controlling the pandemic. However, the spread of vaccine hesitancy constitutes a significant threat to reverse progress in preventing the disease. Studies conducted in Mexico have revealed ... ...

Abstract	Background: Vaccination against COVID-19 is a primary tool for controlling the pandemic. However, the spread of vaccine hesitancy constitutes a significant threat to reverse progress in preventing the disease. Studies conducted in Mexico have revealed that vaccination intention in Mexico among the general population ranges from 62 to 82%. Objective: To know the prevalence of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and associated factors among academics, students, and administrative personnel of a public university in Mexico City. Methods: We administered an online survey investigating sociodemographic aspects, knowledge, attitudes, practices, and acceptance/hesitancy regarding the COVID-19 vaccine. Using generalized linear Poisson models, we analyzed factors associated with vaccine hesitancy, defined as not intending to be vaccinated within the following six months or refusing vaccination. Results: During May and June 2021, we studied 840 people, prevalence of vaccine hesitancy was 6%. Hesitancy was significantly associated with fear of adverse effects, distrust of physician's recommendations, lack of knowledge regarding handwashing, age younger than 40 years, refusal to use face masks, and not having received influenza vaccination during the two previous seasons. Conclusions: Vaccine hesitancy in this population is low. Furthermore, our results allowed us the identification of characteristics that can improve vaccine promotion.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19 Vaccines/therapeutic use ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Mexico/epidemiology ; Patient Acceptance of Health Care ; Universities ; Vaccination ; Vaccines
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines ; Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-10-04
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2041338-5
ISSN	1471-2458 ; 1471-2458
ISSN (online)	1471-2458
ISSN	1471-2458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-022-14225-2
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Article ; Online: Control measures for Chagas disease.

Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Esteva, Lourdes / Vargas, Cristobal

Mathematical biosciences

2012 Volume 237, Issue 1-2, Page(s) 49–60

Abstract: Chagas disease, also known as American trypanosomiasis, is a potentially life-threatening illness caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. The main mode of transmission of this disease in endemic areas is through an insect vector called ... ...

Abstract	Chagas disease, also known as American trypanosomiasis, is a potentially life-threatening illness caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. The main mode of transmission of this disease in endemic areas is through an insect vector called triatomine bug. Triatomines become infected with T. cruzi by feeding blood of an infected person or animal. Chagas disease is considered the most important vector borne infection in Latin America. It is estimated that between 16 and 18 millions of persons are infected with T. cruzi, and at least 20,000 deaths each year. In this work we formulate a model for the transmission of this infection among humans, vectors and domestic mammals. Our main objective is to assess the effectiveness of Chagas disease control measures. For this, we do sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R₀ and the endemic proportions with respect to epidemiological and demographic parameters.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Chagas Disease/epidemiology ; Chagas Disease/prevention & control ; Chagas Disease/transmission ; Computer Simulation ; Humans ; Insect Control/standards ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; Latin America/epidemiology ; Models, Biological ; Rural Population ; Triatominae/parasitology ; Trypanosoma cruzi/growth & development
Language	English
Publishing date	2012-05
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1126-5
ISSN	1879-3134 ; 0025-5564
ISSN (online)	1879-3134
ISSN	0025-5564
DOI	10.1016/j.mbs.2012.03.005
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Article: Control measures for Chagas disease

Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Esteva, Lourdes / Vargas, Cristobal

Mathematical biosciences. 2012 , v. 237, no. 1-2

2012

Abstract	Chagas disease, also known as American trypanosomiasis, is a potentially life-threatening illness caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. The main mode of transmission of this disease in endemic areas is through an insect vector called triatomine bug. Triatomines become infected with T. cruzi by feeding blood of an infected person or animal. Chagas disease is considered the most important vector borne infection in Latin America. It is estimated that between 16 and 18millions of persons are infected with T. cruzi, and at least 20,000 deaths each year. In this work we formulate a model for the transmission of this infection among humans, vectors and domestic mammals. Our main objective is to assess the effectiveness of Chagas disease control measures. For this, we do sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R₀ and the endemic proportions with respect to epidemiological and demographic parameters.
Keywords	Chagas disease ; Triatominae ; Trypanosoma cruzi ; blood ; control methods ; disease control ; disease transmission ; humans ; insect vectors ; models ; parasites ; people ; Latin America
Language	English
Dates of publication	2012-05
Size	p. 49-60.
Publishing place	Elsevier Inc.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	1126-5
ISSN	1879-3134 ; 0025-5564
ISSN (online)	1879-3134
ISSN	0025-5564
DOI	10.1016/j.mbs.2012.03.005
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Book ; Article ; Online: Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020

Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Bustamante-Castañeda, J.F. / Caputo, Jean-Guy / Jiménez-Corona, M.E. / Ponce-de-León, S.

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02507142 ; 2020

Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico

2020

Abstract: On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the Covid-19 outbreak. In this work we show an analysis of the dispersion of this infection to other cities by airlines based on the classic model the Kermack and McKendrick ... ...

Abstract	On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the Covid-19 outbreak. In this work we show an analysis of the dispersion of this infection to other cities by airlines based on the classic model the Kermack and McKendrick complemented with diffusion on a graph. The main purpose is to give estimates of the arrival virus and times of the outbreak to other locations. We use Mexico City as an example. In this case, our estimate of the arrival time is around March 20, 2020. This analysis is limited to the analysis of dispersion by airlines, so this estimate should be takenAs an overestimate since the infection can arrive by other means. Last, we show that these estimates are robust to small variations of epidemiological parameters.
Keywords	outbreak ; COVID-19 ; coronavirus ; SARS-CoV-2 ; [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ; [MATH.MATH-DS]Mathematics [math]/Dynamical Systems [math.DS] ; covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-03-12
Publisher	HAL CCSD
Publishing country	fr
Document type	Book ; Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Book ; Article ; Online: Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020

Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo / Bustamante-Castañeda, J.F. / Caputo, Jean-Guy / Jiménez-Corona, M.E. / Ponce-de-León, S.

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02507142 ; 2020

Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico

2020

Abstract	On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the Covid-19 outbreak. In this work we show an analysis of the dispersion of this infection to other cities by airlines based on the classic model the Kermack and McKendrick complemented with diffusion on a graph. The main purpose is to give estimates of the arrival virus and times of the outbreak to other locations. We use Mexico City as an example. In this case, our estimate of the arrival time is around March 20, 2020. This analysis is limited to the analysis of dispersion by airlines, so this estimate should be takenAs an overestimate since the infection can arrive by other means. Last, we show that these estimates are robust to small variations of epidemiological parameters.
Keywords	outbreak ; COVID-19 ; coronavirus ; SARS-CoV-2 ; [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ; [MATH.MATH-DS]Mathematics [math]/Dynamical Systems [math.DS] ; covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-03-12
Publisher	HAL CCSD
Publishing country	fr
Document type	Book ; Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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