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Article ; Online: A Note on Cherry-Picking in Meta-Analyses.

Yoneoka, Daisuke / Rieck, Bastian

2023 Volume 25, Issue 4

Abstract: We study selection bias in meta-analyses by assuming the presence of researchers (meta-analysts) who intentionally or unintentionally cherry-pick a subset of studies by defining arbitrary inclusion and/or exclusion criteria that will lead to their ... ...

Abstract	We study selection bias in meta-analyses by assuming the presence of researchers (meta-analysts) who intentionally or unintentionally cherry-pick a subset of studies by defining arbitrary inclusion and/or exclusion criteria that will lead to their desired results. When the number of studies is sufficiently large, we theoretically show that a meta-analysts might falsely obtain (non)significant overall treatment effects, regardless of the actual effectiveness of a treatment. We analyze all theoretical findings based on extensive simulation experiments and practical clinical examples. Numerical evaluations demonstrate that the standard method for meta-analyses has the potential to be cherry-picked.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-04-19
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2014734-X
ISSN	1099-4300 ; 1099-4300
ISSN (online)	1099-4300
ISSN	1099-4300
DOI	10.3390/e25040691
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Article ; Online: Holiday effect on childbirth: A population-based analysis of 21,869,652 birth records, 1979-2018.

Sassa, Miho / Kinoshita, Ryo / Murano, Yayoi / Shoji, Hiromichi / Yoneoka, Daisuke

PloS one

2024 Volume 19, Issue 2, Page(s) e0296403

Abstract: Maternity and neonatal services always have to operate 24 hours a day and 7 days a week, and require well preparedness to guarantee safe deliveries for both mothers and babies. However, the evidence of holiday effect from large-scale data is still ... ...

Abstract	Maternity and neonatal services always have to operate 24 hours a day and 7 days a week, and require well preparedness to guarantee safe deliveries for both mothers and babies. However, the evidence of holiday effect from large-scale data is still insufficient from the obstetrics perspective. We analyzed data of over 21 million births in Japan from January 1, 1979, to December 31, 2018. We revealed that the number of births is lower on holidays, and especially among high-risk births such as low birthweight and preterm births. The frequency of high-risk birth has been increasing over the study period, and the variation by the day of week and between holiday and non-holiday have become more prevalent in recent years.
MeSH term(s)	Infant, Newborn ; Pregnancy ; Female ; Humans ; Infant, Premature ; Pregnancy Outcome ; Holidays ; Birth Certificates ; Infant, Low Birth Weight ; Premature Birth/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-02-14
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0296403
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Article: Injury rate and characteristics in Japanese male professional ice hockey players: prospective study of 60 players over 10 seasons.

Suzuki, Katsunori / Yoneoka, Daisuke / Terada, Masakazu / Kenjo, Katsuyuki / Koyanagi, Toshiya / Suzuki, Yuki

BMJ open sport & exercise medicine

2024 Volume 10, Issue 1, Page(s) e001720

Abstract: Objectives: We aimed to assess the injury rate and characteristics in Japanese male professional ice hockey players.: Methods: This study involved an inclusive cohort of male ice hockey players from a Japanese professional team competing in the 2010- ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: We aimed to assess the injury rate and characteristics in Japanese male professional ice hockey players. Methods: This study involved an inclusive cohort of male ice hockey players from a Japanese professional team competing in the 2010-2011 through the 2019-2020 seasons. An injury was defined as the 'time-loss and medical attention' definition of the International Ice Hockey Federation. All injuries that occurred during games and practice sessions were recorded daily on injury charts by the team athletic trainers and/or physician. Game-related injury rates were analysed using both the athlete-at-risk (AAR) and time on ice (TOI) methods. Results: Sixty players were included in the study. A total of 479 injuries were recorded, with 307 (64%) occurring during 451 games and 172 (36%) occurring during the practice sessions. The game-related injury rates obtained using the AAR and TOI methods were not statistically different (p>0.05): 115.3 (95% CI 107.1 to 123.1) and 116.8 (95% CI 109.9 to 124.7) per 1000 player-game hours, respectively. Most injuries involved the upper extremities (39.9% game-related, 32.6% practice-related), followed by the lower extremities (23.5% game-related, 32.5% practice-related). The most frequent mechanism of game-related injury was body checking (45.4%). Conclusion: We observed a higher injury rate in a Japanese male professional team compared with rates reported in other leagues. The reported injury characteristics should help to improve injury prevention strategies that should target shoulder dislocations caused by body checking, and finger or wrist fractures resulting from contact with a hockey stick or puck impact.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-19
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2817580-3
ISSN	2055-7647
ISSN	2055-7647
DOI	10.1136/bmjsem-2023-001720
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Article ; Online: Estimation of the time of exposure based on interval and censored data using the ε-accelerated EM algorithm.

Yoneoka, Daisuke / Kawashima, Takayuki / Tanoue, Yuta / Nomura, Shuhei / Eguchi, Akifumi

Statistics in medicine

2023 Volume 42, Issue 25, Page(s) 4542–4555

Abstract: Accurately estimating the timing of pathogen exposure plays a crucial role in outbreak control for emerging infectious diseases, including the source identification, contact tracing, and vaccine research and development. However, since surveillance ... ...

Abstract	Accurately estimating the timing of pathogen exposure plays a crucial role in outbreak control for emerging infectious diseases, including the source identification, contact tracing, and vaccine research and development. However, since surveillance activities often collect data retrospectively after symptoms have appeared, obtaining accurate data on the timing of disease onset is difficult in practice and can involve "coarse" observations, such as interval or censored data. To address this challenge, we propose a novel likelihood function, tailored to coarsely observed data in rapid outbreak surveillance, along with an optimization method based on an
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-22
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	843037-8
ISSN	1097-0258 ; 0277-6715
ISSN (online)	1097-0258
ISSN	0277-6715
DOI	10.1002/sim.9874
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Article ; Online: Projections of maternal mortality ratios in Bangladesh.

Nishimura, Etsuko / Yoneoka, Daisuke / Rahman, Md Obaidur / Yonekura, Yuki / Kataoka, Yaeko / Ota, Erika

Journal of global health

2024 Volume 14, Page(s) 4015

Abstract: Background: The objective of this study was to predict when Bangladesh would achieve Sustainable Development Goal Target 3.1, which is to reduce the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 per 100 000 live births.: Methods: We used secondary ... ...

Abstract	Background: The objective of this study was to predict when Bangladesh would achieve Sustainable Development Goal Target 3.1, which is to reduce the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 per 100 000 live births. Methods: We used secondary data from the 1993 to 2017 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys and other sources to project the MMR until 2060 under several scenario assumptions using an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous variables (ARMAX). Explanatory variables were selected based on the three delays model, and a reference forecast and four practical scenarios were simulated: Scenario 1 assumed a 4% annual increase in institutional deliveries, Scenario 2 followed the national goals, the reference forecast and Scenario 3 varied in terms of district-wise increase rates (Scenario 3 had a lower rate of increase), and Scenario 4 assumed minimal changes in institutional deliveries. Results: Scenario 1 was the earliest, with an MMR of <70 per 100 000 live births in 2026. Scenario 2 would meet the target of <70 per 100 000 live births in 2029. The reference forecast had the third lowest MMR, with 69.78 per 100 000 live births (95% prediction intervals (PI) = 32.44 to 107.11) in 2049. Although the MMR for Scenario 3 decreased slowly, it would not reduce below 70 per 100 000 live births by 2060. Scenario 4, which had the highest MMR, also resulted in the MMR not reducing below 70 per 100 000 live births by 2060. Conclusions: To increase the institutional delivery rate and reduce the MMR, as in Scenarios 1 and 2, it is necessary to improve the institutional delivery rate in regions with low institutional delivery rates. Additionally, health facilities need to provide appropriate quality medical care to increase the institutional delivery rate and contribute to a decrease in the MMR, as shown by the results of this study.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; Health Facilities ; Maternal Mortality ; Female ; Pregnancy
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-26
Publishing country	Scotland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2741629-X
ISSN	2047-2986 ; 2047-2986
ISSN (online)	2047-2986
ISSN	2047-2986
DOI	10.7189/jogh.14.04015
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Article ; Online: The importance of meropenem resistance, rather than imipenem resistance, in defining carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales for public health surveillance: an analysis of national population-based surveillance.

Ikenoue, Chiaki / Matsui, Mari / Inamine, Yuba / Yoneoka, Daisuke / Sugai, Motoyuki / Suzuki, Satowa

BMC infectious diseases

2024 Volume 24, Issue 1, Page(s) 209

Abstract: Background: In Japan, carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) infections were incorporated into the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NESID) in 2014, necessitating mandatory reporting of all CRE infections cases. ... ...

Abstract	Background: In Japan, carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) infections were incorporated into the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NESID) in 2014, necessitating mandatory reporting of all CRE infections cases. Subsequently, pathogen surveillance was initiated in 2017, which involved the collection and analysis of CRE isolates from reported cases to assess carbapenemase gene possession. In this surveillance, CRE is defined as (i) minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of meropenem ≥2 mg/L (MEPM criteria) or (ii) MIC of imipenem ≥2 mg/L and MIC of cefmetazole ≥64 mg/L (IPM criteria). This study examined whether the current definition of CRE surveillance captures cases with a clinical and public health burden. Methods: CRE isolates from reported cases were collected from the public health laboratories of local governments, which are responsible for pathogen surveillance. Antimicrobial susceptibility tests were conducted on these isolates to assess compliance with the NESID CRE definition. The NESID data between April 2017 and March 2018 were obtained and analyzed using antimicrobial susceptibility test results. Results: In total, 1681 CRE cases were identified during the study period, and pathogen surveillance data were available for 740 (44.0%) cases. Klebsiella aerogenes and Enterobacter cloacae complex were the dominant species, followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli. The rate of carbapenemase gene positivity was 26.5% (196/740), and 93.4% (183/196) of these isolates were of the IMP type. Meanwhile, 315 isolates were subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Among them, 169 (53.7%) fulfilled only the IPM criteria (IPM criteria-only group) which were susceptible to meropenem, while 146 (46.3%) fulfilled the MEPM criteria (MEPM criteria group). The IPM criteria-only group and MEPM criteria group significantly differed in terms of carbapenemase gene positivity (0% vs. 67.8%), multidrug resistance rates (1.2% vs. 65.8%), and mortality rates (1.8% vs 6.9%). Conclusion: The identification of CRE cases based solely on imipenem resistance has had a limited impact on clinical management. Emphasizing resistance to meropenem is crucial in defining CRE, which pose both clinical and public health burden. This emphasis will enable the efficient allocation of limited health and public health resources and preservation of newly developed antimicrobials.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Meropenem/pharmacology ; Imipenem/pharmacology ; Public Health Surveillance ; Bacterial Proteins/genetics ; beta-Lactamases/genetics ; Cefmetazole ; Escherichia coli ; Anti-Infective Agents ; Microbial Sensitivity Tests ; Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology
Chemical Substances	Meropenem (FV9J3JU8B1) ; Imipenem (71OTZ9ZE0A) ; Bacterial Proteins ; beta-Lactamases (EC 3.5.2.6) ; Cefmetazole (3J962UJT8H) ; Anti-Infective Agents ; Anti-Bacterial Agents
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-02-15
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2041550-3
ISSN	1471-2334 ; 1471-2334
ISSN (online)	1471-2334
ISSN	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-024-09107-4
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Article ; Online: Risk factors associated with infection-related mortality of Bacillus cereus bacteremia in hematologic disorders.

Shimada, Tomohito / Ishikawa, Kazuhiro / Kawai, Fujimi / Yoneoka, Daisuke / Mori, Nobuyoshi

International journal of hematology

2023 Volume 118, Issue 6, Page(s) 726–730

Abstract: The mortality risk factors in B. cereus bacteremia in hematologic disorders are still unknown. In this study, patients with B. cereus bacteremia in hematologic disorders were selected in St. lukes international hospital and from electronic databases. A ... ...

Abstract	The mortality risk factors in B. cereus bacteremia in hematologic disorders are still unknown. In this study, patients with B. cereus bacteremia in hematologic disorders were selected in St. lukes international hospital and from electronic databases. A total of 176 patients [median age, 41 years (3-88 years); 99 (56%) males] were included. Of these patients, 141 (80%) had acute leukemia, and 93 (53%) died. Univariate analysis showed that neutropenia, CNS, gastrointestinal, and respiratory infections/symptoms were significantly associated with infection-related death. Meanwhile, glycopeptide use and management with source control were protective factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that infection-related death was significantly associated with CNS [odds ratio (OR): 3.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-9.80], gastrointestinal (OR: 5.22, 95% CI 1.82-8.99), and respiratory infections/symptoms (OR: 8.98, 95% CI 1.62-49.9), as well as glycopeptide use (OR: 0.10, 95% CI 0.03-0.31) and source control (OR: 0.11, 95% CI 0.03-0.37). In conclusion, early glycopeptide administration and source control should be performed upon detection of infections suspicious for B. cereus.
MeSH term(s)	Male ; Humans ; Adult ; Female ; Bacillus cereus ; Gram-Positive Bacterial Infections ; Hematologic Diseases/complications ; Risk Factors ; Bacteremia ; Respiratory Tract Infections/complications ; Glycopeptides
Chemical Substances	Glycopeptides
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-17
Publishing country	Japan
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1076875-0
ISSN	1865-3774 ; 0917-1258 ; 0925-5710
ISSN (online)	1865-3774
ISSN	0917-1258 ; 0925-5710
DOI	10.1007/s12185-023-03671-2
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Article: Projection of morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer between 2020 and 2050 across 42 low- and middle-income countries.

Rauniyar, Santosh Kumar / Hashizume, Masahiro / Yoneoka, Daisuke / Nomura, Shuhei

Heliyon

2023 Volume 9, Issue 6, Page(s) e16427

Abstract: Objective: Aim of the study is to predict trends in morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer in 42 LMICs between 2020 and 2050.: Design: and Setting: National level cross-sectional breast cancer related data between 1990 and 2019 were used. ... ...

Abstract	Objective: Aim of the study is to predict trends in morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer in 42 LMICs between 2020 and 2050. Design: and Setting: National level cross-sectional breast cancer related data between 1990 and 2019 were used. Recurrent Neural Network, Long-Short-Term Memory (RNN-LSTM) model was employed to forecast the trend in breast cancer burden. Main outcomes and measures: Age standardized breast cancer incidence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rates. Results: By 2050, the age standardized breast cancer incidence rate is expected to increase in 38 LMICs with highest incidence rate in Namibia; 127.0 (78.0-176.0) followed by Nigeria 71.1 (53.9-88.3) and Papua New Guinea 70.6 (88.7-74.6). Similarly, the age standardized breast cancer mortality and DALYs rates in 2050 are expected to increase in 33 and 35 LMICs respectively. The highest mortality and DALYs rates in 2050 are expected to be 64.7 (42.6-86.7) in Namibia and 1543.6 (1463.1-1624.1) in Pakistan. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) is expected to increase uniformly in all the countries during the same period. Due to considerable variation in exposure risk, such as high plasma glucose level, high body mass index (BMI) and socio-demographic index (SDI), high regional disparity in burden of breast cancer is expected among the countries. Conclusion: and Relevance: Breast cancer burden is expected to increase in most of the LMICs with high regional disparity by 2050. Our study's finding focuses on LMICs with high breast cancer burden that require tailored strategies and effective action plans to ensure prevention from catastrophic consequences in the future. Minimizing the exposure to behavioral and metabolic risk factors such as high plasma glucose, high BMI, along with tackling the issue of low fertility rate would be important in managing breast cancer burden in LMICs.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-05-19
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2835763-2
ISSN	2405-8440
ISSN	2405-8440
DOI	10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16427
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Article ; Online: A Systematic Review With Pairwise and Network Meta-analysis of Closed Reduction Methods for Anterior Shoulder Dislocation.

Gonai, Shiro / Yoneoka, Daisuke / Miyoshi, Takahiro / da Silva Lopes, Katharina

Annals of emergency medicine

2023 Volume 81, Issue 4, Page(s) 453–465

Abstract: Study objective: To review closed reduction methods for anterior shoulder dislocation and perform the first comprehensive comparison of the individual methods in terms of success rate, pain, and reduction time.: Methods: We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, ... ...

Abstract	Study objective: To review closed reduction methods for anterior shoulder dislocation and perform the first comprehensive comparison of the individual methods in terms of success rate, pain, and reduction time. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane, and ClinicalTrials.gov for randomized controlled trials registered until December 31, 2020. We performed a pairwise and network meta-analysis using a Bayesian random-effects model. Two authors independently performed screening and risk-of-bias assessment. Results: We found 14 studies with 1,189 patients. In a pairwise meta-analysis, no significant difference was found in the only comparable pair, namely, the Kocher method versus the Hippocratic method (success rate: odds ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.53, 2.75: pain during reduction [visual analog scale]: standard mean difference, -0.33; 95% CI, -0.69, 0.02; reduction time [minutes]: mean difference, 0.19, 95% CI, -1.77, 2.15). In network meta-analysis, FARES (Fast, Reliable, and Safe) was the only method significantly less painful than the Kocher method (mean difference, -4.0; 95% credible interval, -7.6, -0.40). In the surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) plot of success rate, FARES, and the Boss-Holzach-Matter/Davos method showed high values. For pain during reduction, FARES had the highest SUCRA value in the overall analysis. In the SUCRA plot of reduction time, modified external rotation and FARES had high values. The only complication was 1 case of fracture with the Kocher method. Conclusion: Overall, Boss-Holzach-Matter/Davos, and FARES demonstrated the most favorable value for success rates, whereas both FARES and modified external rotation were more favorable in reduction times. FARES had the most favorable SUCRA for pain during reduction. Future work directly comparing techniques is needed to better understand the difference in reduction success and complications.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Shoulder Dislocation/therapy ; Network Meta-Analysis ; Bayes Theorem ; Pain ; Fractures, Bone/complications
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-02-15
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Systematic Review ; Meta-Analysis ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	603080-4
ISSN	1097-6760 ; 0196-0644
ISSN (online)	1097-6760
ISSN	0196-0644
DOI	10.1016/j.annemergmed.2022.10.020
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Article ; Online: Area under the curve-optimized synthesis of prediction models from a meta-analytical perspective.

Yoneoka, Daisuke / Omae, Katsuhiro / Henmi, Masayuki / Eguchi, Shinto

Research synthesis methods

2022 Volume 14, Issue 2, Page(s) 234–246

Abstract: The number of clinical prediction models sharing the same prediction task has increased in the medical literature. However, evidence synthesis methodologies that use the results of these prediction models have not been sufficiently studied, particularly ... ...

Abstract	The number of clinical prediction models sharing the same prediction task has increased in the medical literature. However, evidence synthesis methodologies that use the results of these prediction models have not been sufficiently studied, particularly in the context of meta-analysis settings where only summary statistics are available. In particular, we consider the following situation: we want to predict an outcome Y, that is not included in our current data, while the covariate data are fully available. In addition, the summary statistics from prior studies, which share the same prediction task (i.e., the prediction of Y), are available. This study introduces a new method for synthesizing the summary results of binary prediction models reported in the prior studies using a linear predictor under a distributional assumption between the current and prior studies. The method provides an integrated predictor combining all predictors reported in the prior studies with weights. The vector of the weights is designed to achieve the hypothetical improvement of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) on the current available data under a practical situation where there are different sets of covariates in the prior studies. We observe a counterintuitive aspect in typical situations where a part of weight components in the proposed method becomes negative. It implies that flipping the sign of the prediction results reported in each individual study would improve the overall prediction performance. Finally, numerical and real-world data analysis were conducted and showed that our method outperformed conventional methods in terms of AUC.
MeSH term(s)	ROC Curve ; Clinical Decision Rules ; Models, Statistical
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-12-07
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2548499-0
ISSN	1759-2887 ; 1759-2879
ISSN (online)	1759-2887
ISSN	1759-2879
DOI	10.1002/jrsm.1612
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