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Article ; Online: Flood susceptibility mapping to improve models of species distributions

Elham Ebrahimi / Miguel B. Araújo / Babak Naimi

Ecological Indicators, Vol 157, Iss , Pp 111250- (2023)

2023

Abstract: As significant ecosystem disturbances flooding events are expected to increase in both frequency and severity due to climate change, underscoring the critical need to understand their impact on biodiversity. In this study, we employ advanced remote ... ...

Abstract	As significant ecosystem disturbances flooding events are expected to increase in both frequency and severity due to climate change, underscoring the critical need to understand their impact on biodiversity. In this study, we employ advanced remote sensing and machine learning methodologies to investigate the effects of flooding on biodiversity, from individual species to broader ecological communities. Specifically, we utilized Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images and an ensemble of machine-learning algorithms to derive a flood susceptibility indicator. Our primary objective is to investigate the potential benefits of incorporating flood susceptibility, as a proxy for flood risk, into species distribution models (SDMs). By doing so, we aim to improve the performance of SDMs and gain deeper insights into the consequences of floods to biodiversity. Within the biodiverse landscape of the Zagros Mountains, a crucial Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspots, we examined the sensitivity of mammals, amphibians, and reptiles’ distributions to flooding. Our analysis compared the performance of models that combined flood susceptibility with climate variables against models relying solely on climate variables. The results indicate that the inclusion of flood susceptibility significantly improves the capacity of models to explain and map species distributions for 67% of the species in our study region. Notably, amphibians and mammals are more profoundly affected by flooding compared to reptiles. The study highlights the importance of incorporating flood susceptibility as a predictor variable in species distribution models to improve the baseline characterization of potential species distributions. The importance of this variable will obviously depend on the regional context and the species studied but its relevance is likely to increase with climate change. In summary, our research demonstrates the integration of remote sensing and machine learning as a potent approach to advance biodiversity data science, ...
Keywords	Flood Susceptibility Indicator ; Biodiversity Conservation ; Species Distribution Models ; Remote Sensing ; Machine learning ; Ecology ; QH540-549.5
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

González-Trujillo, Juan David / Alagador, Diogo / González-Del-Pliego, Pamela / Araújo, Miguel B

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology

2024 , Page(s) e14251

Abstract: Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather ... ...

Abstract	Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-10
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	58735-7
ISSN	1523-1739 ; 0888-8892
ISSN (online)	1523-1739
ISSN	0888-8892
DOI	10.1111/cobi.14251
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Article ; Online: Data error propagation in stacked bioclimatic envelope models.

Li, Xueyan / Naimi, Babak / Gong, Peng / Araújo, Miguel B

Integrative zoology

2023 Volume 19, Issue 2, Page(s) 262–276

Abstract: Stacking is the process of overlaying inferred species potential distributions for multiple species based on outputs of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). The approach can be used to investigate patterns and processes of species richness. If data ... ...

Abstract	Stacking is the process of overlaying inferred species potential distributions for multiple species based on outputs of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). The approach can be used to investigate patterns and processes of species richness. If data limitations on individual species distributions are inevitable, but how do they affect inferences of patterns and processes of species richness? We investigate the influence of different data sources on estimated species richness gradients in China. We fitted BEMs using species distributions data for 334 bird species obtained from (1) global range maps, (2) regional checklists, (3) museum records and surveys, and (4) citizen science data using presence-only (Mahalanobis distance), presence-background (MAXENT), and presence-absence (GAM and BRT) BEMs. Individual species predictions were stacked to generate species richness gradients. Here, we show that different data sources and BEMs can generate spatially varying gradients of species richness. The environmental predictors that best explained species distributions also differed between data sources. Models using citizen-based data had the highest accuracy, whereas those using range data had the lowest accuracy. Potential richness patterns estimated by GAM and BRT models were robust to data uncertainty. When multiple data sets exist for the same region and taxa, we advise that explicit treatments of uncertainty, such as sensitivity analyses of the input data, should be conducted during the process of modeling.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; China ; Citizen Science
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-05-31
Publishing country	Australia
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2570656-1
ISSN	1749-4877 ; 1749-4869
ISSN (online)	1749-4877
ISSN	1749-4869
DOI	10.1111/1749-4877.12736
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Article ; Online: Human disturbances affect the topology of food webs.

Mestre, Frederico / Rozenfeld, Alejandro / Araújo, Miguel B

Ecology letters

2022 Volume 25, Issue 11, Page(s) 2476–2488

Abstract: Networks describe nodes connected by links, with numbers of links per node, the degree, forming a range of distributions including random and scale-free. How network topologies emerge in natural systems still puzzles scientists. Based on previous ... ...

Abstract	Networks describe nodes connected by links, with numbers of links per node, the degree, forming a range of distributions including random and scale-free. How network topologies emerge in natural systems still puzzles scientists. Based on previous theoretical simulations, we predict that scale-free food webs are favourably selected by random disturbances while random food webs are selected by targeted disturbances. We assume that lower human pressures are more likely associated with random disturbances, whereas higher pressures are associated with targeted ones. We examine these predictions using 351 empirical food webs, generally confirming our predictions. Should the topology of food webs respond to changes in the magnitude of disturbances in a predictable fashion, consistently across ecosystems and scales of organisation, it would provide a baseline expectation to understand and predict the consequences of human pressures on ecosystem dynamics.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Food Chain ; Ecosystem
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-09-27
Publishing country	England
Document type	Letter
ZDB-ID	1441608-6
ISSN	1461-0248 ; 1461-023X
ISSN (online)	1461-0248
ISSN	1461-023X
DOI	10.1111/ele.14107
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Article ; Online: Climate or diet? The importance of biotic interactions in determining species range size

Galiana, Núria / Lurgi, Miguel / Montoya, José M. / Araújo, Miguel B. / Galbraith, Eric D.

Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2023 July, v. 32, no. 7 p.1178-1188

2023

Abstract: AIM: Species geographical range sizes play a crucial role in determining species vulnerability to extinction. Although several mechanisms affect range sizes, the number of biotic interactions and species climatic tolerance are often thought to play ... ...

Abstract	AIM: Species geographical range sizes play a crucial role in determining species vulnerability to extinction. Although several mechanisms affect range sizes, the number of biotic interactions and species climatic tolerance are often thought to play discernible roles, defining two dimensions of the Hutchinsonian niche. Yet, the relative importance of the trophic and the climatic niche for determining species range sizes is largely unknown. LOCATION: Central and northern Europe. TIME PERIOD: Present. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Gall‐inducing sawflies and their parasitoids. METHODS: We use data documenting the spatial distributions and biotic interactions of 96 herbivore species, and their 125 parasitoids, across Europe and analyse the relationship between species range size and the climatic and trophic dimensions of the niche. We then compare the observed relationships with null expectations based on species occupancy to understand whether the relationships observed are an inevitable consequence of species range size or if they contain information about the importance of each dimension of the niche on species range size. RESULTS: We find that both niche dimensions are positively correlated with species range size, with larger ranges being associated with wider climatic tolerances and larger numbers of interactions. However, diet breadth appears to more strongly limit species range size. Species with larger ranges have more interactions locally and they are also able to interact with a larger diversity of species across sites (i.e. higher β‐diversity), resulting in a larger number of interactions at continental scales. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We show for the first time how different aspects of species diet niches are related to their range size. Our study offers new insight into the importance of biotic interactions in determining species spatial distributions, which is critical for improving understanding and predictions of species vulnerability to extinction under the current rates of global environmental change.
Keywords	biogeography ; climate ; diet ; extinction ; foraging ; global change ; herbivores ; parasitoids ; species diversity ; Europe ; Northern European region
Language	English
Dates of publication	2023-07
Size	p. 1178-1188.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article ; Online
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	2021283-5
ISSN	1466-8238 ; 1466-822X ; 0960-7447
ISSN (online)	1466-8238
ISSN	1466-822X ; 0960-7447
DOI	10.1111/geb.13686
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Power laws in species' biotic interaction networks can be inferred from co-occurrence data.

Galiana, Nuria / Arnoldi, Jean-François / Mestre, Frederico / Rozenfeld, Alejandro / Araújo, Miguel B

Nature ecology & evolution

2023 Volume 8, Issue 2, Page(s) 209–217

Abstract: Inferring biotic interactions from species co-occurrence patterns has long intrigued ecologists. Yet recent research revealed that co-occurrences may not reliably represent pairwise biotic interactions. We propose that examining network-level co- ... ...

Abstract	Inferring biotic interactions from species co-occurrence patterns has long intrigued ecologists. Yet recent research revealed that co-occurrences may not reliably represent pairwise biotic interactions. We propose that examining network-level co-occurrence patterns can provide valuable insights into community structure and assembly. Analysing ten bipartite networks of empirically sampled biotic interactions and associated species spatial distribution, we find that approximately 20% of co-occurrences correspond to actual interactions. Moreover, the degree distribution shifts from exponential in co-occurrence networks to power laws in networks of biotic interactions. This shift results from a strong interplay between species' biotic (their interacting partners) and abiotic (their environmental requirements) niches, and is accurately predicted by considering co-occurrence frequencies. Our work offers a mechanistic understanding of the assembly of ecological communities and suggests simple ways to infer fundamental biotic interaction network characteristics from co-occurrence data.
MeSH term(s)	Ecosystem ; Biota
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-27
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2397-334X
ISSN (online)	2397-334X
DOI	10.1038/s41559-023-02254-y
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Article ; Online: Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change.

Lemes, Priscila / Barbosa, Fabiana G / Naimi, Babak / Araújo, Miguel B

The Science of the total environment

2022 Volume 835, Page(s) 155157

Abstract: Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal ... ...

Abstract	Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Anura ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Plants ; Symbiosis
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-08
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	121506-1
ISSN	1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
ISSN (online)	1879-1026
ISSN	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155157
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Article ; Online: Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics.

Taheri, Shirin / García-Callejas, David / Araújo, Miguel B

Global change biology

2021 Volume 27, Issue 6, Page(s) 1309–1317

Abstract: Species are reportedly shifting their distributions poleward and upward in several parts of the world in response to climate change. The extent to which other factors might play a role driving these changes is still unclear. Land-cover change is a major ... ...

Abstract	Species are reportedly shifting their distributions poleward and upward in several parts of the world in response to climate change. The extent to which other factors might play a role driving these changes is still unclear. Land-cover change is a major cause of distributional changes, but it cannot be discarded that distributional dynamics might be at times caused by other mechanisms (e.g. dispersal, ecological drift). Using observed changes in the distribution of 82 breeding birds in Great Britain between three time periods 1968-72 (t
MeSH term(s)	Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Birds ; Climate Change ; United Kingdom
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-01-15
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1281439-8
ISSN	1365-2486 ; 1354-1013
ISSN (online)	1365-2486
ISSN	1354-1013
DOI	10.1111/gcb.15483
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Article ; Online: Ecological and epidemiological models are both useful for SARS-CoV-2.

Araújo, Miguel B / Mestre, Frederico / Naimi, Babak

Nature ecology & evolution

2020 Volume 4, Issue 9, Page(s) 1153–1154

MeSH term(s)	Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; SARS-CoV-2
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-07-21
Publishing country	England
Document type	Letter
ISSN	2397-334X
ISSN (online)	2397-334X
DOI	10.1038/s41559-020-1246-y
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Article: Biogeography of bird and mammal trophic structures

Mendoza, Manuel / Araujo, Miguel B.

Ecography. 2022 July, v. 2022, no. 7

2022

Abstract: Does climate determine the trophic organization of communities around the world? A recent study showed that a limited number of community trophic structures emerge when co‐occurrence of trophic guilds among large mammals is examined globally. We ask ... ...

Abstract	Does climate determine the trophic organization of communities around the world? A recent study showed that a limited number of community trophic structures emerge when co‐occurrence of trophic guilds among large mammals is examined globally. We ask whether the pattern is general across all terrestrial mammals (n = 5272) and birds (n = 9993). We found that the six community‐trophic structures previously identified with large mammals are largely maintained when all mammals and birds are examined, both together and separately, and that bioclimatic variables, including net primary productivity (NPP), are strongly related to variation in the geographical boundaries of community trophic structures. We argue that results are consistent with the view that trophic communities are self‐organized structures optimizing energy flows, and that climate likely acts as the main control parameter by modulating the amount of solar energy available for conversion by plants and percolated through food webs across trophic communities. Gradual changes in climate parameters would thus be expected to trigger abrupt changes in energy flows resulting from phase transitions (tipping points) between different dynamical stable states. We expect future research to examine if our results are general across organisms, ecosystems, scales and methodologies, and whether inferences rooted in complex systems theory are supported. The emergence of general patterns in the functional properties of animal communities at broad scales supports the emergence of food‐web biogeography as a sub‐discipline of biogeography focused on the analysis of the geographical distributions of trophic relationships among organisms.
Keywords	biogeography ; birds ; climate ; food webs ; mammals ; net primary productivity ; solar energy
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-07
Publishing place	Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	1112659-0
ISSN	0906-7590
ISSN	0906-7590
DOI	10.1111/ecog.06289
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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