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  1. Article ; Online: The COVID-19 pandemic in the USA: what might we expect?

    Chowell, Gerardo / Mizumoto, Kenji

    Lancet (London, England)

    2020  Volume 395, Issue 10230, Page(s) 1093–1094

    MeSH term(s) Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; SARS Virus ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-01
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 3306-6
    ISSN 1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    ISSN (online) 1474-547X
    ISSN 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30743-1
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020.

    Mizumoto, Kenji / Chowell, Gerardo

    Infectious Disease Modelling

    2020  Volume 5, Page(s) 264–270

    Abstract: An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how ... ...

    Abstract An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-02-29
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 3015225-2
    ISSN 2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
    ISSN (online) 2468-0427
    ISSN 2468-2152
    DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.003
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020.

    Mizumoto, Kenji / Chowell, Gerardo

    Emerging infectious diseases

    2020  Volume 26, Issue 6, Page(s) 1251–1256

    Abstract: Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative ...

    Abstract Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.
    MeSH term(s) Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; China/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/mortality ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/mortality ; Probability ; Risk Assessment ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Survival Analysis ; Survival Rate
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-06-17
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
    ZDB-ID 1380686-5
    ISSN 1080-6059 ; 1080-6040
    ISSN (online) 1080-6059
    ISSN 1080-6040
    DOI 10.3201/eid2606.200233
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article ; Online: Temporary Fertility Decline after Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan.

    Mizumoto, Kenji / Chowell, Gerardo

    Emerging infectious diseases

    2020  Volume 26, Issue 6, Page(s) 1122–1129

    Abstract: Japan experienced 2 large rubella epidemics in 2004 and 2012-2014. Because of suboptimal immunization levels, the country has been experiencing a third major outbreak during 2018-2020. We conducted time series analyses to evaluate the effect of the 2012- ... ...

    Abstract Japan experienced 2 large rubella epidemics in 2004 and 2012-2014. Because of suboptimal immunization levels, the country has been experiencing a third major outbreak during 2018-2020. We conducted time series analyses to evaluate the effect of the 2012-2014 nationwide rubella epidemic on prefecture-level natality in Japan. We identified a statistically significant decline in fertility rates associated with rubella epidemic activity and increased Google searches for the term "rubella." We noted that the timing of fertility declines in 2014 occurred 9-13 months after peak rubella incidence months in 2013 in 4 prefectures with the highest rubella incidence. Public health interventions should focus on enhancing vaccination campaigns against rubella, not only to protect pregnant women from infection but also to mitigate declines in population size and birth rates.
    MeSH term(s) Disease Outbreaks ; Female ; Fertility ; Humans ; Japan/epidemiology ; Pregnancy ; Rubella/epidemiology ; Rubella Syndrome, Congenital/epidemiology ; Rubella Vaccine
    Chemical Substances Rubella Vaccine
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-22
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
    ZDB-ID 1380686-5
    ISSN 1080-6059 ; 1080-6040
    ISSN (online) 1080-6059
    ISSN 1080-6040
    DOI 10.3201/eid2606.181718
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: The COVID-19 pandemic in the USA

    Chowell, Gerardo / Mizumoto, Kenji

    The Lancet

    what might we expect?

    2020  Volume 395, Issue 10230, Page(s) 1093–1094

    Keywords General Medicine ; covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier BV
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    ZDB-ID 3306-6
    ISSN 1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    ISSN (online) 1474-547X
    ISSN 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    DOI 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30743-1
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article ; Online: Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

    Kenji Mizumoto / Gerardo Chowell

    Infectious Disease Modelling, Vol 5, Iss , Pp 264-

    2020  Volume 270

    Abstract: An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how ... ...

    Abstract An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1–7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship. Keywords: Corona, Epidemic, Confined settings, Cruise, Next generation matrix
    Keywords Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216 ; covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher KeAi
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  7. Article ; Online: Temporary Fertility Decline after Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan

    Kenji Mizumoto / Gerardo Chowell

    Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol 26, Iss 6, Pp 1122-

    2020  Volume 1129

    Abstract: Japan experienced 2 large rubella epidemics in 2004 and 2012–2014. Because of suboptimal immunization levels, the country has been experiencing a third major outbreak during 2018–2020. We conducted time series analyses to evaluate the effect of the 2012– ... ...

    Abstract Japan experienced 2 large rubella epidemics in 2004 and 2012–2014. Because of suboptimal immunization levels, the country has been experiencing a third major outbreak during 2018–2020. We conducted time series analyses to evaluate the effect of the 2012–2014 nationwide rubella epidemic on prefecture-level natality in Japan. We identified a statistically significant decline in fertility rates associated with rubella epidemic activity and increased Google searches for the term “rubella.” We noted that the timing of fertility declines in 2014 occurred 9–13 months after peak rubella incidence months in 2013 in 4 prefectures with the highest rubella incidence. Public health interventions should focus on enhancing vaccination campaigns against rubella, not only to protect pregnant women from infection but also to mitigate declines in population size and birth rates.
    Keywords rubella ; vaccine-preventable diseases ; outbreak ; time series ; birth risk ; viruses ; Medicine ; R ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article ; Online: Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

    Kenji Mizumoto / Gerardo Chowell

    Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol 26, Iss 6, Pp 1251-

    2020  Volume 1256

    Abstract: Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative ...

    Abstract Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.
    Keywords outbreak ; COVID-19 ; death risk ; viruses ; coronavirus ; 2019 novel coronavirus disease ; Medicine ; R ; Infectious and parasitic diseases ; RC109-216 ; covid19
    Subject code 950
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Article ; Online: Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises.

    Chowell, Gerardo / Dahal, Sushma / Bono, Raquel / Mizumoto, Kenji

    Scientific reports

    2021  Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 15482

    Abstract: To ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the ... ...

    Abstract To ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test's sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/transmission ; Contact Tracing/methods ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Physical Distancing ; Public Health ; Public Health Practice ; Quarantine ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ; Ships
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-07-29
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-021-95032-4
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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