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Article ; Online: Detecting changes in generation and serial intervals under varying pathogen biology, contact patterns and outbreak response.

Pung, Rachael / Russell, Timothy W / Kucharski, Adam J

2024 Volume 20, Issue 3, Page(s) e1011967

Abstract: The epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission have changed over the pandemic due to emergence of new variants. A decrease in the generation or serial intervals would imply a shortened transmission timescale and, hence, outbreak response ... ...

Abstract	The epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission have changed over the pandemic due to emergence of new variants. A decrease in the generation or serial intervals would imply a shortened transmission timescale and, hence, outbreak response measures would need to expand at a faster rate. However, there are challenges in measuring these intervals. Alongside epidemiological changes, factors like varying delays in outbreak response, social contact patterns, dependence on the growth phase of an outbreak, and effects of exposure to multiple infectors can also influence measured generation or serial intervals. To guide real-time interpretation of variant data, we simulated concurrent changes in the aforementioned factors and estimated the statistical power to detect a change in the generation and serial interval. We compared our findings to the reported decrease or lack thereof in the generation and serial intervals of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our study helps to clarify contradictory outbreak observations and informs the required sample sizes under certain outbreak conditions to ensure that future studies of generation and serial intervals are adequately powered.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Pandemics ; Forecasting ; Biology
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-22
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2193340-6
ISSN	1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
ISSN (online)	1553-7358
ISSN	1553-734X
DOI	10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011967
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Purtscher-like Retinopathy and Acute Macular Neuroretinopathy in a Child with Acute Influenza A.

Kates, Malcolm M / Sipos, Timothy / Read, Russell W / Oltmanns, Matthew

Retina (Philadelphia, Pa.)

2024

Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-07
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	603192-4
ISSN	1539-2864 ; 0275-004X
ISSN (online)	1539-2864
ISSN	0275-004X
DOI	10.1097/IAE.0000000000004095
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Article: Transition Metal Free sp

Russell, Richard W / Barker, Timothy J

European journal of organic chemistry

2021 Volume 2021, Issue 19, Page(s) 2782–2784

Abstract: A transition metal free coupling reaction of benzylboronic esters and alkyl halides has been developed. Both alkyl bromides and alkyl iodides were found to be competent substrates with the nucleophilic boronate intermediate generated from the combination ...

Abstract	A transition metal free coupling reaction of benzylboronic esters and alkyl halides has been developed. Both alkyl bromides and alkyl iodides were found to be competent substrates with the nucleophilic boronate intermediate generated from the combination of benzylboronic ester and an alkyllithium. Good chemoselectivity was observed in substrates with a second electrophile. Both secondary and tertiary benzylboronic esters were effective nucleophiles in the reaction with primary alkyl halides. Mechanistic observations are consistent with a radical mechanism.
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-23
Publishing country	Germany
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1475010-7
ISSN	1099-0690 ; 1434-193X
ISSN (online)	1099-0690
ISSN	1434-193X
DOI	10.1002/ejoc.202100361
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Article ; Online: Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 seroassay sensitivity: a systematic review and modelling study.

Owusu-Boaitey, Nana / Russell, Timothy W / Meyerowitz-Katz, Gideon / Levin, Andrew T / Herrera-Esposito, Daniel

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

2023 Volume 28, Issue 21

Abstract: BackgroundSerological surveys have been the gold standard to estimate numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the dynamics of the epidemic, and disease severity. Serological assays have decaying sensitivity with time that can bias their results, but there is a ...

Abstract	BackgroundSerological surveys have been the gold standard to estimate numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the dynamics of the epidemic, and disease severity. Serological assays have decaying sensitivity with time that can bias their results, but there is a lack of guidelines to account for this phenomenon for SARS-CoV-2.AimOur goal was to assess the sensitivity decay of seroassays for detecting SARS-CoV-2 infections, the dependence of this decay on assay characteristics, and to provide a simple method to correct for this phenomenon.MethodsWe performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 serology studies. We included studies testing previously diagnosed, unvaccinated individuals, and excluded studies of cohorts highly unrepresentative of the general population (e.g. hospitalised patients).ResultsOf the 488 screened studies, 76 studies reporting on 50 different seroassays were included in the analysis. Sensitivity decay depended strongly on the antigen and the analytic technique used by the assay, with average sensitivities ranging between 26% and 98% at 6 months after infection, depending on assay characteristics. We found that a third of the included assays departed considerably from manufacturer specifications after 6 months.ConclusionsSeroassay sensitivity decay depends on assay characteristics, and for some types of assays, it can make manufacturer specifications highly unreliable. We provide a tool to correct for this phenomenon and to assess the risk of decay for a given assay. Our analysis can guide the design and interpretation of serosurveys for SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens and quantify systematic biases in the existing serology literature.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19/diagnosis ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; COVID-19 Testing ; Serologic Tests/methods ; Antibodies, Viral
Chemical Substances	Antibodies, Viral
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-05-25
Publishing country	Sweden
Document type	Systematic Review ; Meta-Analysis ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1338803-4
ISSN	1560-7917 ; 1025-496X
ISSN (online)	1560-7917
ISSN	1025-496X
DOI	10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.21.2200809
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Article ; Online: Correction: The local burden of disease during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England: estimation using different data sources from changing surveillance practices.

Nightingale, Emily S / Abbott, Sam / Russell, Timothy W / Lowe, Rachel / Medley, Graham F / Brady, Oliver J

BMC public health

2022 Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 1140

Language	English
Publishing date	2022-06-07
Publishing country	England
Document type	Published Erratum
ZDB-ID	2041338-5
ISSN	1471-2458 ; 1471-2458
ISSN (online)	1471-2458
ISSN	1471-2458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-022-13320-8
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Article: Reactions of Benzylboronate Nucleophiles.

Barker, Timothy J / Bogatkevich, Andrew / Crowder, Dallas W / Gierszal, Sophia G / Hayes, Jacob C / Hollerbach, Michael R / Russell, Richard W

Synthesis

2023 Volume 55, Issue 17, Page(s) 2639–2647

Abstract: This short review summarizes our laboratory's development of benzylboronic esters as nucleophiles. Activation of the benzylboronic ester is achieved by irreversible coordination of an alkyllithium Lewis base to form a nucleophilic benzylboronate. This ... ...

Abstract	This short review summarizes our laboratory's development of benzylboronic esters as nucleophiles. Activation of the benzylboronic ester is achieved by irreversible coordination of an alkyllithium Lewis base to form a nucleophilic benzylboronate. This boronate was found to react with aldehydes, imines, ketones and alkyl bromides. A copper catalyst was employed in reactions of the boronate with epoxides and aziridines.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-05-08
Publishing country	Germany
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2033062-5
ISSN	1437-210X ; 0039-7881
ISSN (online)	1437-210X
ISSN	0039-7881
DOI	10.1055/a-2072-2754
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Article ; Online: Relative role of border restrictions, case finding and contact tracing in controlling SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of undetected transmission: a mathematical modelling study.

Pung, Rachael / Clapham, Hannah E / Russell, Timothy W / Lee, Vernon J / Kucharski, Adam J

BMC medicine

2023 Volume 21, Issue 1, Page(s) 97

Abstract: Background: Understanding the overall effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic and reduce the burden of disease is crucial for future pandemic planning. However, quantifying the effectiveness of specific control ...

Abstract	Background: Understanding the overall effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic and reduce the burden of disease is crucial for future pandemic planning. However, quantifying the effectiveness of specific control measures and the extent of missed infections, in the absence of early large-scale serological surveys or random community testing, has remained challenging. Methods: Combining data on notified local COVID-19 cases with known and unknown sources of infections in Singapore with a branching process model, we reconstructed the incidence of missed infections during the early phase of the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and Delta variant transmission. We then estimated the relative effectiveness of border control measures, case finding and contact tracing when there was no or low vaccine coverage in the population. We compared the risk of ICU admission and death between the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and the Delta variant in notified cases and all infections. Results: We estimated strict border control measures were associated with 0.2 (95% credible intervals, CrI 0.04-0.8) missed imported infections per notified case between July and December 2020, a decline from around 1 missed imported infection per notified case in the early phases of the pandemic. Contact tracing was estimated to identify 78% (95% CrI 62-93%) of the secondary infections generated by notified cases before the partial lockdown in Apr 2020, but this declined to 63% (95% CrI 56-71%) during the lockdown and rebounded to 78% (95% CrI 58-94%) during reopening in Jul 2020. The contribution of contact tracing towards overall outbreak control also hinges on ability to find cases with unknown sources of infection: 42% (95% CrI 12-84%) of such cases were found prior to the lockdown; 10% (95% CrI 7-15%) during the lockdown; 47% (95% CrI 17-85%) during reopening, due to increased testing capacity and health-seeking behaviour. We estimated around 63% (95% CrI 49-78%) of the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 infections were undetected during 2020 and around 70% (95% CrI 49-91%) for the Delta variant in 2021. Conclusions: Combining models with case linkage data enables evaluation of the effectiveness of different components of outbreak control measures, and provides more reliable situational awareness when some cases are missed. Using such approaches for early identification of the weakest link in containment efforts could help policy makers to better redirect limited resources to strengthen outbreak control.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics ; COVID-19/diagnosis ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Contact Tracing ; Communicable Disease Control ; Pandemics/prevention & control
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-16
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2131669-7
ISSN	1741-7015 ; 1741-7015
ISSN (online)	1741-7015
ISSN	1741-7015
DOI	10.1186/s12916-023-02802-0
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Article: Cardiovascular risk, social vigilance, and stress profiles of male law enforcement officers versus civilians.

White, Shannon C / Ruiz, John M / Allison, Matthew / Uchino, Bert N / Smith, Timothy W / Taylor, Daniel J / Jones, Dusti R / Russell, Michael A / Ansell, Emily B / Smyth, Joshua M

Health psychology open

2024 Volume 11, Page(s) 20551029241244723

Abstract: This study examined the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profiles of male law enforcement officers (LEOs) and civilians. CVD risk profiles were based on data collected using traditional objective (e.g., resting BP, cholesterol), novel objective (e.g., ... ...

Abstract	This study examined the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profiles of male law enforcement officers (LEOs) and civilians. CVD risk profiles were based on data collected using traditional objective (e.g., resting BP, cholesterol), novel objective (e.g., ambulatory BP) and self-report measures (e.g., EMA social vigilance). A subset of male LEOs (
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-04
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2779205-5
ISSN	2055-1029
ISSN	2055-1029
DOI	10.1177/20551029241244723
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Article ; Online: The local burden of disease during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England: estimation using different data sources from changing surveillance practices.

Nightingale, Emily S / Abbott, Sam / Russell, Timothy W / Lowe, Rachel / Medley, Graham F / Brady, Oliver J

BMC public health

2022 Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 716

Abstract: Background: The COVID-19 epidemic has differentially impacted communities across England, with regional variation in rates of confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Measurement of this burden changed substantially over the first months, as ... ...

Abstract	Background: The COVID-19 epidemic has differentially impacted communities across England, with regional variation in rates of confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Measurement of this burden changed substantially over the first months, as surveillance was expanded to accommodate the escalating epidemic. Laboratory confirmation was initially restricted to clinical need ("pillar 1") before expanding to community-wide symptomatics ("pillar 2"). This study aimed to ascertain whether inconsistent measurement of case data resulting from varying testing coverage could be reconciled by drawing inference from COVID-19-related deaths. Methods: We fit a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to weekly COVID-19-related deaths per local authority (LTLA) throughout the first wave (1 January 2020-30 June 2020), adjusting for the local epidemic timing and the age, deprivation and ethnic composition of its population. We combined predictions from this model with case data under community-wide, symptomatic testing and infection prevalence estimates from the ONS infection survey, to infer the likely trajectory of infections implied by the deaths in each LTLA. Results: A model including temporally- and spatially-correlated random effects was found to best accommodate the observed variation in COVID-19-related deaths, after accounting for local population characteristics. Predicted case counts under community-wide symptomatic testing suggest a total of 275,000-420,000 cases over the first wave - a median of over 100,000 additional to the total confirmed in practice under varying testing coverage. This translates to a peak incidence of around 200,000 total infections per week across England. The extent to which estimated total infections are reflected in confirmed case counts was found to vary substantially across LTLAs, ranging from 7% in Leicester to 96% in Gloucester with a median of 23%. Conclusions: Limitations in testing capacity biased the observed trajectory of COVID-19 infections throughout the first wave. Basing inference on COVID-19-related mortality and higher-coverage testing later in the time period, we could explore the extent of this bias more explicitly. Evidence points towards substantial under-representation of initial growth and peak magnitude of infections nationally, to which different parts of the country contribute unequally.
MeSH term(s)	Bayes Theorem ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Cost of Illness ; Humans ; Information Storage and Retrieval ; SARS-CoV-2
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-11
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2041338-5
ISSN	1471-2458 ; 1471-2458
ISSN (online)	1471-2458
ISSN	1471-2458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-022-13069-0
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Article ; Online: The local burden of disease during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England

Emily S. Nightingale / Sam Abbott / Timothy W. Russell / CMMID Covid-19 Working Group

BMC Public Health, Vol 22, Iss 1, Pp 1-

estimation using different data sources from changing surveillance practices

2022 Volume 14

Abstract: Abstract Background The COVID-19 epidemic has differentially impacted communities across England, with regional variation in rates of confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Measurement of this burden changed substantially over the first months, as ...

Abstract	Abstract Background The COVID-19 epidemic has differentially impacted communities across England, with regional variation in rates of confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Measurement of this burden changed substantially over the first months, as surveillance was expanded to accommodate the escalating epidemic. Laboratory confirmation was initially restricted to clinical need (“pillar 1”) before expanding to community-wide symptomatics (“pillar 2”). This study aimed to ascertain whether inconsistent measurement of case data resulting from varying testing coverage could be reconciled by drawing inference from COVID-19-related deaths. Methods We fit a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to weekly COVID-19-related deaths per local authority (LTLA) throughout the first wave (1 January 2020–30 June 2020), adjusting for the local epidemic timing and the age, deprivation and ethnic composition of its population. We combined predictions from this model with case data under community-wide, symptomatic testing and infection prevalence estimates from the ONS infection survey, to infer the likely trajectory of infections implied by the deaths in each LTLA. Results A model including temporally- and spatially-correlated random effects was found to best accommodate the observed variation in COVID-19-related deaths, after accounting for local population characteristics. Predicted case counts under community-wide symptomatic testing suggest a total of 275,000–420,000 cases over the first wave - a median of over 100,000 additional to the total confirmed in practice under varying testing coverage. This translates to a peak incidence of around 200,000 total infections per week across England. The extent to which estimated total infections are reflected in confirmed case counts was found to vary substantially across LTLAs, ranging from 7% in Leicester to 96% in Gloucester with a median of 23%. Conclusions Limitations in testing capacity biased the observed trajectory of COVID-19 infections throughout the first wave. Basing ...
Keywords	Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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