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  1. Article ; Online: Air quality prediction by machine learning models: A predictive study on the indian coastal city of Visakhapatnam.

    Ravindiran, Gokulan / Hayder, Gasim / Kanagarathinam, Karthick / Alagumalai, Avinash / Sonne, Christian

    Chemosphere

    2023  Volume 338, Page(s) 139518

    Abstract: Clean air is critical component for health and survival of human and wildlife, as atmospheric pollution is associated with a number of significant diseases including cancer. However, due to rapid industrialization and population growth, activities such ... ...

    Abstract Clean air is critical component for health and survival of human and wildlife, as atmospheric pollution is associated with a number of significant diseases including cancer. However, due to rapid industrialization and population growth, activities such as transportation, household, agricultural, and industrial processes contribute to air pollution. As a result, air pollution has become a significant problem in many cities, especially in emerging countries like India. To maintain ambient air quality, regular monitoring and forecasting of air pollution is necessary. For that purpose, machine learning has emerged as a promising technique for predicting the Air Quality Index (AQI) compared to conventional methods. Here we apply the AQI to the city of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India, focusing on 12 contaminants and 10 meteorological parameters from July 2017 to September 2022. For this purpose, we employed several machine learning models, including LightGBM, Random Forest, Catboost, Adaboost, and XGBoost. The results show that the Catboost model outperformed other models with an R
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Cities ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Air Pollution/analysis ; Machine Learning ; Particulate Matter/analysis
    Chemical Substances Air Pollutants ; Particulate Matter
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-07-14
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 120089-6
    ISSN 1879-1298 ; 0045-6535 ; 0366-7111
    ISSN (online) 1879-1298
    ISSN 0045-6535 ; 0366-7111
    DOI 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.139518
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Estimation of the reproduction number and early prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using a statistical computing approach.

    Kanagarathinam, Karthick / Sekar, Kavaskar

    Epidemiology and health

    2020  Volume 42, Page(s) e2020028

    Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered ( ... ...

    Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R
    MeSH term(s) Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Forecasting ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; Mathematical Computing ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-09
    Publishing country Korea (South)
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2590698-7
    ISSN 2092-7193 ; 2092-7193
    ISSN (online) 2092-7193
    ISSN 2092-7193
    DOI 10.4178/epih.e2020028
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Estimation of the reproduction number and early prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using a statistical computing approach

    Karthick Kanagarathinam / Kavaskar Sekar

    Epidemiology and Health, Vol

    2020  Volume 42

    Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered ( ... ...

    Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R0). This work is focused on predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stage in India based on an estimation of R0. The developed model will help policymakers to take active measures prior to the further spread of COVID-19. Data on daily newly infected cases in India from March 2, 2020 to April 2, 2020 were to estimate R0 using the earlyR package. The maximum-likelihood approach was used to analyze the distribution of R0 values, and the bootstrap strategy was applied for resampling to identify the most likely R0 value. We estimated the median value of R0 to be 1.471 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.351 to 1.592) and predicted that the new case count may reach 39,382 (95% CI, 34,300 to 47,351) in 30 days.
    Keywords basic reproduction number ; covid-19 ; forecasting ; statistical computing ; Medicine ; R ; covid19
    Subject code 310
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Korean Society of Epidemiology
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article: Analysis of 'earlyR' epidemic model and Time Series model for prediction of COVID-19 registered cases.

    Kanagarathinam, Karthick / Algehyne, Ebrahem A / Sekar, Kavaskar

    Materials today. Proceedings

    2020  

    Abstract: The COVID-19 is an epidemic that causes respiratory infection. The forecasted data will help the policy makers to take precautionary measures and to control the epidemic spread. The two models were adopted for forecasting the daily newly registered cases ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 is an epidemic that causes respiratory infection. The forecasted data will help the policy makers to take precautionary measures and to control the epidemic spread. The two models were adopted for forecasting the daily newly registered cases of COVID-19 namely 'earlyR' epidemic model and ARIMA model. In earlyR epidemic model, the reported values of serial interval of COVID-19 with gamma distribution have been used to estimate the value of R
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-10-14
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2797693-2
    ISSN 2214-7853
    ISSN 2214-7853
    DOI 10.1016/j.matpr.2020.10.086
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: Air quality prediction by machine learning models: A predictive study on the indian coastal city of Visakhapatnam

    Ravindiran, Gokulan / Hayder, Gasim / Kanagarathinam, Karthick / Alagumalai, Avinash / Sonne, Christian

    Chemosphere. 2023 Oct., v. 338 p.139518-

    2023  

    Abstract: Clean air is critical component for health and survival of human and wildlife, as atmospheric pollution is associated with a number of significant diseases including cancer. However, due to rapid industrialization and population growth, activities such ... ...

    Abstract Clean air is critical component for health and survival of human and wildlife, as atmospheric pollution is associated with a number of significant diseases including cancer. However, due to rapid industrialization and population growth, activities such as transportation, household, agricultural, and industrial processes contribute to air pollution. As a result, air pollution has become a significant problem in many cities, especially in emerging countries like India. To maintain ambient air quality, regular monitoring and forecasting of air pollution is necessary. For that purpose, machine learning has emerged as a promising technique for predicting the Air Quality Index (AQI) compared to conventional methods. Here we apply the AQI to the city of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India, focusing on 12 contaminants and 10 meteorological parameters from July 2017 to September 2022. For this purpose, we employed several machine learning models, including LightGBM, Random Forest, Catboost, Adaboost, and XGBoost. The results show that the Catboost model outperformed other models with an R² correlation coefficient of 0.9998, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.60, a mean square error (MSE) of 0.58, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.76. The Adaboost model had the least effective prediction with an R² correlation coefficient of 0.9753. In summary, machine learning is a promising technique for predicting AQI with Catboost being the best-performing model for AQI prediction. Moreover, by leveraging historical data and machine learning algorithms enables accurate predictions of future urban air quality levels on a global scale.
    Keywords air ; air pollution ; air quality ; humans ; industrialization ; models ; population growth ; prediction ; transportation ; wildlife ; India ; Air quality index ; Particulate matter ; Gaseous pollutants ; Meteorological parameters ; Climate action
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2023-10
    Publishing place Elsevier Ltd
    Document type Article ; Online
    Note Pre-press version
    ZDB-ID 120089-6
    ISSN 1879-1298 ; 0045-6535 ; 0366-7111
    ISSN (online) 1879-1298
    ISSN 0045-6535 ; 0366-7111
    DOI 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.139518
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  6. Article: Estimation of the reproduction number and early prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using a statistical computing approach

    Kanagarathinam, Karthick / Sekar, Kavaskar

    Epidemiol Health

    Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered ( ... ...

    Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R0). This work is focused on predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stage in India based on an estimation of R0. The developed model will help policymakers to take active measures prior to the further spread of COVID-19. Data on daily newly infected cases in India from March 2, 2020 to April 2, 2020 were to estimate R0 using the earlyR package. The maximum-likelihood approach was used to analyze the distribution of R0 values, and the bootstrap strategy was applied for resampling to identify the most likely R0 value. We estimated the median value of R0 to be 1.471 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.351 to 1.592) and predicted that the new case count may reach 39,382 (95% CI, 34,300 to 47,351) in 30 days.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #275495
    Database COVID19

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  7. Article ; Online: Analysis of ‘earlyR’ epidemic model and time series model for prediction of COVID-19 registered cases

    Kanagarathinam, Karthick / Algehyne, Ebrahem A. / Sekar, Kavaskar

    Materials Today: Proceedings ; ISSN 2214-7853

    2020  

    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier BV
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1016/j.matpr.2020.10.086
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article ; Online: Impact of air pollutants on climate change and prediction of air quality index using machine learning models.

    Ravindiran, Gokulan / Rajamanickam, Sivarethinamohan / Kanagarathinam, Karthick / Hayder, Gasim / Janardhan, Gorti / Arunkumar, Priya / Arunachalam, Sivakumar / AlObaid, Abeer A / Warad, Ismail / Muniasamy, Senthil Kumar

    Environmental research

    2023  Volume 239, Issue Pt 1, Page(s) 117354

    Abstract: The impact of air pollution in Chennai metropolitan city, a southern Indian coastal city was examined to predict the Air Quality Index (AQI). Regular monitoring and prediction of the Air Quality Index (AQI) are critical for combating air pollution. The ... ...

    Abstract The impact of air pollution in Chennai metropolitan city, a southern Indian coastal city was examined to predict the Air Quality Index (AQI). Regular monitoring and prediction of the Air Quality Index (AQI) are critical for combating air pollution. The current study created machine learning models such as XGBoost, Random Forest, BaggingRegressor, and LGBMRegressor for the prediction of the AQI using the historical data available from 2017 to 2022. According to historical data, the AQI is highest in January, with a mean value of 104.6 g/gm, and the lowest in August, with a mean AQI value of 63.87 g/gm. Particulate matter, gaseous pollutants, and meteorological parameters were used to predict AQI, and the heat map generated showed that of all the parameters, PM
    MeSH term(s) Air Pollutants ; Climate Change ; India ; Air Pollution ; Machine Learning
    Chemical Substances Air Pollutants
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-10-12
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 205699-9
    ISSN 1096-0953 ; 0013-9351
    ISSN (online) 1096-0953
    ISSN 0013-9351
    DOI 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117354
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  9. Article: Analysis of 'earlyR' epidemic model and Time Series model for prediction of COVID-19 registered cases

    Kanagarathinam, Karthick / Algehyne, Ebrahem A / Sekar, Kavaskar

    Abstract: The COVID-19 is an epidemic that causes respiratory infection. The forecasted data will help the policy makers to take precautionary measures and to control the epidemic spread. The two models were adopted for forecasting the daily newly registered cases ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 is an epidemic that causes respiratory infection. The forecasted data will help the policy makers to take precautionary measures and to control the epidemic spread. The two models were adopted for forecasting the daily newly registered cases of COVID-19 namely 'earlyR' epidemic model and ARIMA model. In earlyR epidemic model, the reported values of serial interval of COVID-19 with gamma distribution have been used to estimate the value of R0 and 'projections' package is used to obtain epidemic trajectories by fitting the existing COVID-19 India data, serial interval distribution, and obtained R0 value of respective states. The ARIMA model is developed by using the 'auto.arima' function to evaluate the values of (p, d, q) and 'forecast' package is used to predict the new infected cases. The methodology evaluation shows that ARIMA model gives the better accuracy compared to earlyR epidemic model.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #856959
    Database COVID19

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