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  1. Article ; Online: A 17-year time-series of fungal environmental DNA from a coastal marine ecosystem reveals long-term seasonal-scale and inter-annual diversity patterns.

    Chrismas, Nathan / Allen, Ro / Allen, Michael J / Bird, Kimberley / Cunliffe, Michael

    Proceedings. Biological sciences

    2023  Volume 290, Issue 1992, Page(s) 20222129

    Abstract: Changing patterns in diversity are a feature of many habitats, with seasonality a major driver of ecosystem structure and function. In coastal marine plankton-based ecosystems, seasonality has been established through long-term time-series of ... ...

    Abstract Changing patterns in diversity are a feature of many habitats, with seasonality a major driver of ecosystem structure and function. In coastal marine plankton-based ecosystems, seasonality has been established through long-term time-series of bacterioplankton and protists. Alongside these groups, fungi also inhabit coastal marine ecosystems. If and how marine fungi show long-term intra- and inter-annual diversity patterns is unknown, preventing a comprehensive understanding of marine fungal ecology. Here, we use a 17-year environmental DNA time-series from the English Channel to determine long-term marine fungal diversity patterns. We show that fungal community structure progresses at seasonal and monthly scales and is only weakly related to environmental parameters. Communities restructured every 52-weeks suggesting long-term stability in diversity patterns. Some major marine fungal genera have clear inter-annual recurrence patterns, re-appearing in the annual cycle at the same period. Low relative abundance taxa that are likely non-marine show seasonal input to the coastal marine ecosystem suggesting land-sea exchange regularly takes place. Our results demonstrate long-term intra- and inter-annual marine fungal diversity patterns. We anticipate this study could form the basis for better understanding the ecology of marine fungi and how they fit in the structure and function of the wider coastal marine ecosystem.
    MeSH term(s) DNA, Environmental ; DNA, Fungal ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Seawater/microbiology
    Chemical Substances DNA, Environmental ; DNA, Fungal
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-02-01
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 209242-6
    ISSN 1471-2954 ; 0080-4649 ; 0962-8452 ; 0950-1193
    ISSN (online) 1471-2954
    ISSN 0080-4649 ; 0962-8452 ; 0950-1193
    DOI 10.1098/rspb.2022.2129
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance.

    Ondrikova, Nikola / Clough, Helen / Douglas, Amy / Vivancos, Roberto / Itturiza-Gomara, Miren / Cunliffe, Nigel / Harris, John P

    Scientific reports

    2023  Volume 13, Issue 1, Page(s) 21457

    Abstract: Social distancing interrupted transmission patterns of contact-driven infectious agents such as norovirus during the Covid-19 pandemic. Since routine surveillance of norovirus was additionally disrupted during the pandemic, traditional naïve forecasts ... ...

    Abstract Social distancing interrupted transmission patterns of contact-driven infectious agents such as norovirus during the Covid-19 pandemic. Since routine surveillance of norovirus was additionally disrupted during the pandemic, traditional naïve forecasts that rely only on past public health surveillance data may not reliably represent norovirus activity. This study investigates the use of statistical modelling to predict the number of norovirus laboratory reports in England 4-weeks ahead of time before and during Covid-19 pandemic thus providing insights to inform existing practices in norovirus surveillance in England. We compare the predictive performance from three forecasting approaches that assume different underlying structure of the norovirus data and utilized various external data sources including mobility, air temperature and relative internet searches (Time Series and Regularized Generalized Linear Model, and Quantile Regression Forest). The performance of each approach was evaluated using multiple metrics, including a relative prediction error against the traditional naive forecast of a five-season mean. Our data suggest that all three forecasting approaches improve predictive performance over the naïve forecasts, especially in the 2020/21 season (30-45% relative improvement) when the number of norovirus reports reduced. The improvement ranged from 7 to 22% before the pandemic. However, performance varied: regularized regression incorporating internet searches showed the best forecasting score pre-pandemic and the time series approach achieved the best results post pandemic onset without external data. Overall, our results demonstrate that there is a significant value for public health in considering the adoption of more sophisticated forecasting tools, moving beyond traditional naïve methods, and utilizing available software to enhance the precision and timeliness of norovirus surveillance in England.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Public Health Surveillance ; Pandemics ; Norovirus ; Seasons ; Public Health ; Forecasting
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-12-05
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-023-48069-6
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Understanding norovirus reporting patterns in England: a mixed model approach.

    Ondrikova, N / Clough, H E / Cunliffe, N A / Iturriza-Gomara, M / Vivancos, R / Harris, J P

    BMC public health

    2021  Volume 21, Issue 1, Page(s) 1245

    Abstract: Background: Norovirus has a higher level of under-reporting in England compared to other intestinal infectious agents such as Campylobacter or Salmonella, despite being recognised as the most common cause of gastroenteritis globally. In England, this ... ...

    Abstract Background: Norovirus has a higher level of under-reporting in England compared to other intestinal infectious agents such as Campylobacter or Salmonella, despite being recognised as the most common cause of gastroenteritis globally. In England, this under-reporting is a consequence of the frequently mild/self-limiting nature of the disease, combined with the passive surveillance system for infectious diseases reporting. We investigated heterogeneity in passive surveillance system in order to improve understanding of differences in reporting and laboratory testing practices of norovirus in England.
    Methods: The reporting patterns of norovirus relating to age and geographical region of England were investigated using a multivariate negative binomial model. Multiple model formulations were compared, and the best performing model was determined by proper scoring rules based on one-week-ahead predictions. The reporting patterns are represented by epidemic and endemic random intercepts; values close to one and less than one imply a lower number of reports than expected in the given region and age-group.
    Results: The best performing model highlighted atypically large and small amounts of reporting by comparison with the average in England. Endemic random intercept varied from the lowest in East Midlands in those in the under 5 year age-group (0.36, CI 0.18-0.72) to the highest in the same age group in South West (3.00, CI 1.68-5.35) and Yorkshire & the Humber (2.93, CI 1.74-4.94). Reporting by age groups showed the highest variability in young children.
    Conclusion: We identified substantial variability in reporting patterns of norovirus by age and by region of England. Our findings highlight the importance of considering uncertainty in the design of forecasting tools for norovirus, and to inform the development of more targeted risk management approaches for norovirus disease.
    MeSH term(s) Caliciviridae Infections/epidemiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Disease Outbreaks ; England/epidemiology ; Gastroenteritis/epidemiology ; Humans ; Norovirus
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-06-28
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2041338-5
    ISSN 1471-2458 ; 1471-2458
    ISSN (online) 1471-2458
    ISSN 1471-2458
    DOI 10.1186/s12889-021-11317-3
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article ; Online: The efficacy and safety of rotavirus vaccines in countries in Africa and Asia with high child mortality.

    Henschke, N / Bergman, H / Hungerford, D / Cunliffe, N A / Grais, R F / Kang, G / Parashar, U D / Wang, S A / Neuzil, K M

    Vaccine

    2022  Volume 40, Issue 12, Page(s) 1707–1711

    Abstract: Rotavirus remains a leading cause of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in young children and rotavirus vaccines are critical for reducing global disease burden. This report addresses the performance of rotavirus vaccines in countries with high child ... ...

    Abstract Rotavirus remains a leading cause of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in young children and rotavirus vaccines are critical for reducing global disease burden. This report addresses the performance of rotavirus vaccines in countries with high child mortality. We performed a sensitivity analysis as part of a systematic review on rotavirus vaccines to inform development of World Health Organization vaccine recommendations. The efficacy of four prequalified vaccines against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis was similar across high mortality settings in Asia and Africa. Within the first year following vaccination, vaccine efficacy for the four vaccines ranged from 48% to 57% while in the second year, efficacy ranged from 29% to 54%. The four vaccines showed no increase in intussusception risk in these settings. All four vaccines appear to prevent significant numbers of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis episodes with no measurable increase in intussusception risk in high mortality settings in Africa and Asia.
    MeSH term(s) Africa/epidemiology ; Child ; Child Mortality ; Child, Preschool ; Humans ; Infant ; Rotavirus ; Rotavirus Infections/prevention & control ; Rotavirus Vaccines/adverse effects
    Chemical Substances Rotavirus Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-02-17
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Systematic Review
    ZDB-ID 605674-x
    ISSN 1873-2518 ; 0264-410X
    ISSN (online) 1873-2518
    ISSN 0264-410X
    DOI 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.02.003
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: Decreasing driveline infections in patients supported on ventricular assist devices: a care pathway approach.

    Seretny, Julia / Pidborochynski, Tara / Buchholz, Holger / Freed, Darren H / MacArthur, Roderick / Dubyk, Nicole / Cunliffe, Laura / Zelaya, Osiris / Conway, Jennifer

    BMJ open quality

    2022  Volume 11, Issue 2

    Abstract: Background: Driveline infections (DLIs) are a common adverse event in patients on ventricular assist devices (VADs) with incidence ranging from 14% to 59%. DLIs have an impact on patients and the healthcare system with efforts to prevent DLIs being ... ...

    Abstract Background: Driveline infections (DLIs) are a common adverse event in patients on ventricular assist devices (VADs) with incidence ranging from 14% to 59%. DLIs have an impact on patients and the healthcare system with efforts to prevent DLIs being essential. Prior to our intervention, our program had no standard driveline management presurgery and postsurgery. The purpose of this Quality Improvement (QI) initiative was to reduce DLIs and related admissions among patients with VAD within the first year post implant.
    Methods: In anticipation of the QI project, we undertook a review of the programs' current driveline management procedures and completed a survey with patients with VAD to identify current barriers to proper driveline management. Retrospective data were collected for a pre-QI intervention baseline comparison group, which included adult patients implanted with a durable VAD between 1 January 2017 and 31 July 2018. A three-pronged care pathway (CP) was initiated among patients implanted during August 2018 to July 2019. The CP included standardised intraoperative, postoperative and predischarge teaching initiatives and tracking. Using statistical process control methods, DLIs and readmissions in the first year post implant were compared between patients in the CP group and non-CP patients. P-charts were used to detect special cause variation.
    Results: A higher proportion of CP group patients developed a DLI in the first year after implant (52% vs 32%). None developed a DLI during the index admission, which differed from the non-CP group and met criteria for special cause variation. There was a downward trend in cumulative DLI-related readmissions among CP group patients (55% vs 67%). There was no association between CP compliance and development of DLIs within 1 year post implant.
    Conclusion: The CP did not lead to a reduction in the incidence of DLIs but there was a decrease in the proportion of patients with DLIs during their index admission and those readmitted for DLIs within 1 year post implant. This suggests that the CP played a role in decreasing the impact of DLIs in this patient population. However, given the short time period of follow-up longer follow-up will be required to look for sustained effects.
    MeSH term(s) Adult ; Critical Pathways ; Heart-Assist Devices/adverse effects ; Humans ; Incidence ; Prosthesis-Related Infections/epidemiology ; Prosthesis-Related Infections/etiology ; Prosthesis-Related Infections/prevention & control ; Retrospective Studies
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-06-01
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Review ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ISSN 2399-6641
    ISSN (online) 2399-6641
    DOI 10.1136/bmjoq-2022-001815
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  6. Article ; Online: Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.

    Lenton, Timothy M / Abrams, Jesse F / Bartsch, Annett / Bathiany, Sebastian / Boulton, Chris A / Buxton, Joshua E / Conversi, Alessandra / Cunliffe, Andrew M / Hebden, Sophie / Lavergne, Thomas / Poulter, Benjamin / Shepherd, Andrew / Smith, Taylor / Swingedouw, Didier / Winkelmann, Ricarda / Boers, Niklas

    Nature communications

    2024  Volume 15, Issue 1, Page(s) 343

    Abstract: Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite ... ...

    Abstract Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-01-06
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Review
    ZDB-ID 2553671-0
    ISSN 2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
    ISSN (online) 2041-1723
    ISSN 2041-1723
    DOI 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  7. Article ; Online: Publisher Correction: Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.

    Lenton, Timothy M / Abrams, Jesse F / Bartsch, Annett / Bathiany, Sebastian / Boulton, Chris A / Buxton, Joshua E / Conversi, Alessandra / Cunliffe, Andrew M / Hebden, Sophie / Lavergne, Thomas / Poulter, Benjamin / Shepherd, Andrew / Smith, Taylor / Swingedouw, Didier / Winkelmann, Ricarda / Boers, Niklas

    Nature communications

    2024  Volume 15, Issue 1, Page(s) 1917

    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-01
    Publishing country England
    Document type Published Erratum
    ZDB-ID 2553671-0
    ISSN 2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
    ISSN (online) 2041-1723
    ISSN 2041-1723
    DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-45881-0
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  8. Article ; Online: Predicting Norovirus in England Using Existing and Emerging Syndromic Data: Infodemiology Study.

    Ondrikova, Nikola / Harris, John P / Douglas, Amy / Hughes, Helen E / Iturriza-Gomara, Miren / Vivancos, Roberto / Elliot, Alex J / Cunliffe, Nigel A / Clough, Helen E

    Journal of medical Internet research

    2023  Volume 25, Page(s) e37540

    Abstract: Background: Norovirus is associated with approximately 18% of the global burden of gastroenteritis and affects all age groups. There is currently no licensed vaccine or available antiviral treatment. However, well-designed early warning systems and ... ...

    Abstract Background: Norovirus is associated with approximately 18% of the global burden of gastroenteritis and affects all age groups. There is currently no licensed vaccine or available antiviral treatment. However, well-designed early warning systems and forecasting can guide nonpharmaceutical approaches to norovirus infection prevention and control.
    Objective: This study evaluates the predictive power of existing syndromic surveillance data and emerging data sources, such as internet searches and Wikipedia page views, to predict norovirus activity across a range of age groups across England.
    Methods: We used existing syndromic surveillance and emerging syndromic data to predict laboratory data indicating norovirus activity. Two methods are used to evaluate the predictive potential of syndromic variables. First, the Granger causality framework was used to assess whether individual variables precede changes in norovirus laboratory reports in a given region or an age group. Then, we used random forest modeling to estimate the importance of each variable in the context of others with two methods: (1) change in the mean square error and (2) node purity. Finally, these results were combined into a visualization indicating the most influential predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in a specific age group and region.
    Results: Our results suggest that syndromic surveillance data include valuable predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in England. However, Wikipedia page views are less likely to provide prediction improvements on top of Google Trends and Existing Syndromic Data. Predictors displayed varying relevance across age groups and regions. For example, the random forest modeling based on selected existing and emerging syndromic variables explained 60% variance in the ≥65 years age group, 42% in the East of England, but only 13% in the South West region. Emerging data sets highlighted relative search volumes, including "flu symptoms," "norovirus in pregnancy," and norovirus activity in specific years, such as "norovirus 2016." Symptoms of vomiting and gastroenteritis in multiple age groups were identified as important predictors within existing data sources.
    Conclusions: Existing and emerging data sources can help predict norovirus activity in England in some age groups and geographic regions, particularly, predictors concerning vomiting, gastroenteritis, and norovirus in the vulnerable populations and historical terms such as stomach flu. However, syndromic predictors were less relevant in some age groups and regions likely due to contrasting public health practices between regions and health information-seeking behavior between age groups. Additionally, predictors relevant to one norovirus season may not contribute to other seasons. Data biases, such as low spatial granularity in Google Trends and especially in Wikipedia data, also play a role in the results. Moreover, internet searches can provide insight into mental models, that is, an individual's conceptual understanding of norovirus infection and transmission, which could be used in public health communication strategies.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Infodemiology ; Norovirus ; England/epidemiology ; Gastroenteritis/epidemiology ; Caliciviridae Infections/epidemiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-05-08
    Publishing country Canada
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2028830-X
    ISSN 1438-8871 ; 1438-8871
    ISSN (online) 1438-8871
    ISSN 1438-8871
    DOI 10.2196/37540
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  9. Article: The efficacy and safety of rotavirus vaccines in countries in Africa and Asia with high child mortality

    Henschke, N. / Bergman, H. / Hungerford, D. / Cunliffe, N.A. / Grais, R.F. / Kang, G. / Parashar, U.D. / Wang, S.A. / Neuzil, K.M.

    Vaccine. 2022 Mar. 15, v. 40, no. 12

    2022  

    Abstract: Rotavirus remains a leading cause of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in young children and rotavirus vaccines are critical for reducing global disease burden. This report addresses the performance of rotavirus vaccines in countries with high child ... ...

    Abstract Rotavirus remains a leading cause of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in young children and rotavirus vaccines are critical for reducing global disease burden. This report addresses the performance of rotavirus vaccines in countries with high child mortality. We performed a sensitivity analysis as part of a systematic review on rotavirus vaccines to inform development of World Health Organization vaccine recommendations. The efficacy of four prequalified vaccines against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis was similar across high mortality settings in Asia and Africa. Within the first year following vaccination, vaccine efficacy for the four vaccines ranged from 48% to 57% while in the second year, efficacy ranged from 29% to 54%. The four vaccines showed no increase in intussusception risk in these settings. All four vaccines appear to prevent significant numbers of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis episodes with no measurable increase in intussusception risk in high mortality settings in Africa and Asia.
    Keywords Rotavirus ; World Health Organization ; burden of disease ; children ; gastroenteritis ; morbidity ; mortality ; risk ; systematic review ; vaccination ; vaccines ; Africa ; Asia
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2022-0315
    Size p. 1707-1711.
    Publishing place Elsevier Ltd
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 605674-x
    ISSN 1873-2518 ; 0264-410X
    ISSN (online) 1873-2518
    ISSN 0264-410X
    DOI 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.02.003
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  10. Article ; Online: Understanding norovirus reporting patterns in England

    N. Ondrikova / H. E. Clough / N. A. Cunliffe / M. Iturriza-Gomara / R. Vivancos / J. P. Harris

    BMC Public Health, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    a mixed model approach

    2021  Volume 9

    Abstract: Abstract Background Norovirus has a higher level of under-reporting in England compared to other intestinal infectious agents such as Campylobacter or Salmonella, despite being recognised as the most common cause of gastroenteritis globally. In England, ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Background Norovirus has a higher level of under-reporting in England compared to other intestinal infectious agents such as Campylobacter or Salmonella, despite being recognised as the most common cause of gastroenteritis globally. In England, this under-reporting is a consequence of the frequently mild/self-limiting nature of the disease, combined with the passive surveillance system for infectious diseases reporting. We investigated heterogeneity in passive surveillance system in order to improve understanding of differences in reporting and laboratory testing practices of norovirus in England. Methods The reporting patterns of norovirus relating to age and geographical region of England were investigated using a multivariate negative binomial model. Multiple model formulations were compared, and the best performing model was determined by proper scoring rules based on one-week-ahead predictions. The reporting patterns are represented by epidemic and endemic random intercepts; values close to one and less than one imply a lower number of reports than expected in the given region and age-group. Results The best performing model highlighted atypically large and small amounts of reporting by comparison with the average in England. Endemic random intercept varied from the lowest in East Midlands in those in the under 5 year age-group (0.36, CI 0.18–0.72) to the highest in the same age group in South West (3.00, CI 1.68–5.35) and Yorkshire & the Humber (2.93, CI 1.74–4.94). Reporting by age groups showed the highest variability in young children. Conclusion We identified substantial variability in reporting patterns of norovirus by age and by region of England. Our findings highlight the importance of considering uncertainty in the design of forecasting tools for norovirus, and to inform the development of more targeted risk management approaches for norovirus disease.
    Keywords Norovirus ; HHH4 ; Underestimation ; Public health surveillance ; Mixed-effects ; Negative binomial ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher BMC
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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