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  1. Article ; Online: Finding a path to reopen schools during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Edmunds, W John

    The Lancet. Child & adolescent health

    2020  Volume 4, Issue 11, Page(s) 796–797

    MeSH term(s) Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Child ; Coronavirus Infections ; Humans ; Ireland ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; SARS-CoV-2
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-08-03
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Comment
    ISSN 2352-4650
    ISSN (online) 2352-4650
    DOI 10.1016/S2352-4642(20)30249-2
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Assessing the feasibility of Phase 3 vaccine trials against Marburg Virus Disease: A modelling study.

    Qian, George Y / Jombart, Thibaut / John Edmunds, W

    Vaccine: X

    2023  Volume 14, Page(s) 100321

    Abstract: Background: Outbreaks of Marburg virus disease (MVD) are rare and small in size, with only 18 recorded outbreaks since 1967, only two of which involved more than 100 cases. It has been proposed, therefore, that Phase 3 trials for MVD vaccines should be ... ...

    Abstract Background: Outbreaks of Marburg virus disease (MVD) are rare and small in size, with only 18 recorded outbreaks since 1967, only two of which involved more than 100 cases. It has been proposed, therefore, that Phase 3 trials for MVD vaccines should be held open over multiple outbreaks until sufficient end points accrue to enable vaccine efficacy (VE) to be calculated. Here we estimate how many outbreaks might be needed for VE to be estimated.
    Methods: We adapt a mathematical model of MVD transmission to simulate a Phase 3 individually randomised placebo controlled vaccine trial. We assume in the base case that vaccine efficacy is 70% and that 50% of individuals in affected areas are enrolled into the trial (1:1 randomisation). We further assume that the vaccine trial starts two weeks after public health interventions are put in place and that cases occurring within 10 days of vaccination are not included in VE calculations.
    Results: The median size of simulated outbreaks was 2 cases. Only 0.3% of simulated outbreaks were predicted to have more than 100 MVD cases. 95% of simulated outbreaks terminated before cases accrued in the placebo and vaccine arms. Therefore the number of outbreaks required to estimate VE was large: after 100 outbreaks, the estimated VE was 69% but with considerable uncertainty (95% CIs: 0%-100%) while the estimated VE after 200 outbreaks was 67% (95% CIs: 42%-85%). Altering base-case assumptions made little difference to the findings. In a sensitivity analysis, increasing
    Conclusions: It is unlikely that the efficacy of any candidate vaccine can be calculated before more MVD outbreaks have occurred than have been recorded to date. This is because MVD outbreaks tend to be small, public health interventions have been historically effective at reducing transmission, and vaccine trials are only likely to start after these interventions are already in place. Hence, it is expected that outbreaks will terminate before, or shortly after, cases start to accrue in the vaccine and placebo arms.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-06-09
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2590-1362
    ISSN (online) 2590-1362
    DOI 10.1016/j.jvacx.2023.100321
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Finding a path to reopen schools during the COVID-19 pandemic

    Edmunds, W John

    The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health

    2020  Volume 4, Issue 11, Page(s) 796–797

    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier BV
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    ISSN 2352-4642
    DOI 10.1016/s2352-4642(20)30249-2
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Science in the time of COVID-19: Reflections on the UK Events Research Programme.

    Marteau, Theresa M / Parker, Michael J / Edmunds, W John

    Nature communications

    2022  Volume 13, Issue 1, Page(s) 4700

    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Humans ; United Kingdom/epidemiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-08-10
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2553671-0
    ISSN 2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
    ISSN (online) 2041-1723
    ISSN 2041-1723
    DOI 10.1038/s41467-022-32366-1
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: Childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza - is there a risk of undesirable outcomes?

    Baguelin, Marc / Edmunds, W John

    BMC medicine

    2020  Volume 18, Issue 1, Page(s) 37

    MeSH term(s) Child ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Humans ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Seasons ; Vaccination
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-03-12
    Publishing country England
    Document type Letter ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Comment
    ISSN 1741-7015
    ISSN (online) 1741-7015
    DOI 10.1186/s12916-020-1509-0
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  6. Article ; Online: The role of schools and school-aged children in SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

    Flasche, Stefan / Edmunds, W John

    The Lancet. Infectious diseases

    2020  Volume 21, Issue 3, Page(s) 298–299

    MeSH term(s) Aged ; COVID-19 ; Child ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Disease Outbreaks ; England ; Humans ; Prospective Studies ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Schools
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-12-08
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 2061641-7
    ISSN 1474-4457 ; 1473-3099
    ISSN (online) 1474-4457
    ISSN 1473-3099
    DOI 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30927-0
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  7. Article ; Online: A mathematical model of Marburg virus disease outbreaks and the potential role of vaccination in control.

    Qian, George Y / Edmunds, W John / Bausch, Daniel G / Jombart, Thibaut

    BMC medicine

    2023  Volume 21, Issue 1, Page(s) 439

    Abstract: Background: Marburg virus disease is an acute haemorrhagic fever caused by Marburg virus. Marburg virus is zoonotic, maintained in nature in Egyptian fruit bats, with occasional spillover infections into humans and nonhuman primates. Although rare, ... ...

    Abstract Background: Marburg virus disease is an acute haemorrhagic fever caused by Marburg virus. Marburg virus is zoonotic, maintained in nature in Egyptian fruit bats, with occasional spillover infections into humans and nonhuman primates. Although rare, sporadic cases and outbreaks occur in Africa, usually associated with exposure to bats in mines or caves, and sometimes with secondary human-to-human transmission. Outbreaks outside of Africa have also occurred due to importation of infected monkeys. Although all previous Marburg virus disease outbreaks have been brought under control without vaccination, there is nevertheless the potential for large outbreaks when implementation of public health measures is not possible or breaks down. Vaccines could thus be an important additional tool, and development of several candidate vaccines is under way.
    Methods: We developed a branching process model of Marburg virus transmission and investigated the potential effects of several prophylactic and reactive vaccination strategies in settings driven primarily by multiple spillover events as well as human-to-human transmission. Linelist data from the 15 outbreaks up until 2022, as well as an Approximate Bayesian Computational framework, were used to inform the model parameters.
    Results: Our results show a low basic reproduction number which varied across outbreaks, from 0.5 [95% CI 0.05-1.8] to 1.2 [95% CI 1.0-1.9] but a high case fatality ratio. Of six vaccination strategies explored, the two prophylactic strategies (mass and targeted vaccination of high-risk groups), as well as a combination of ring and targeted vaccination, were generally most effective, with a probability of potential outbreaks being terminated within 1 year of 0.90 (95% CI 0.90-0.91), 0.89 (95% CI 0.88-0.90), and 0.88 (95% CI 0.87-0.89) compared with 0.68 (0.67-0.69) for no vaccination, especially if the outbreak is driven by zoonotic spillovers and the vaccination campaign initiated as soon as possible after onset of the first case.
    Conclusions: Our study shows that various vaccination strategies can be effective in helping to control outbreaks of MVD, with the best approach varying with the particular epidemiologic circumstances of each outbreak.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Humans ; Marburg Virus Disease/epidemiology ; Marburg Virus Disease/prevention & control ; Chiroptera ; Bayes Theorem ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control ; Vaccination ; Marburgvirus ; Models, Theoretical ; Vaccines
    Chemical Substances Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-11-14
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2131669-7
    ISSN 1741-7015 ; 1741-7015
    ISSN (online) 1741-7015
    ISSN 1741-7015
    DOI 10.1186/s12916-023-03108-x
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  8. Article ; Online: Childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza – is there a risk of undesirable outcomes?

    Marc Baguelin / W. John Edmunds

    BMC Medicine, Vol 18, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2020  Volume 3

    Keywords Medicine ; R
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-03-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher BMC
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Article: Behaviour, booster vaccines and waning immunity: modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era.

    Barnard, Rosanna C / Davies, Nicholas G / Jit, Mark / Edmunds, W John

    medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

    2022  

    Abstract: England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, ... ...

    Abstract England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity, and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour and seasonality.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-05-20
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Preprint
    DOI 10.1101/2021.11.22.21266584
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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