Article ; Online: MEDIUM-TERM IMPORT SUBSTITUTION MODERNIZATION AS A TRIGGER FOR THE RUSSIAN INNOVATION ECONOMY FORMATION STRATEGY
Модернизация, инновация, развитие, Vol 4, Iss 2(14), Pp 4-
2015 Volume 14
Abstract: A structural analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of the OECD countries andRussiain 1970–2008 has allowed to detect the main problem of Russian economy connected with the accumulated structural disproportions. It is shown that in order to perform a ... ...
Abstract | A structural analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of the OECD countries andRussiain 1970–2008 has allowed to detect the main problem of Russian economy connected with the accumulated structural disproportions. It is shown that in order to perform a transition to a balanced economic structureRussiahas to fulfill an innovation-technological breakthrough in the forthcoming decade. It is shown that the optimum place forRussiain the world economy of the 21st century is connected with the high technology scientifically based production. The strategy of modernization and industrial policy that could allow to form it are discussed. We suggest the medium-term import substitution strategy as a trigger of the long-term strategy of the formation of innovation scientifically based Russian economy in the first half of the 21st century. We offer a forecasting calculation of the dynamics of technological progress and GDP forRussiaup to 2050 on the basis of our mathematical model that describes the abovementioned long-term strategy of the innovation development of the Russian economy. Those calculations suggest that the Russian economy (using GDP PPP as a criterion) may become already by 2030 the 4th largest economy of the world. |
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Keywords | инновации ; модернизация ; производительность факторов производства ; инновационно-технологический прорыв ; слияние технологий ; синергетический эффект ; структурные сдвиги ; промышленная политика ; стратегии модернизации ; сфера ниокр ; инженерно-технические кадры ; Economics as a science ; HB71-74 |
Subject code | 339 |
Language | Russian |
Publishing date | 2015-09-01T00:00:00Z |
Publisher | Nauka |
Document type | Article ; Online |
Database | BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection) |
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