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Article ; Online: Trust and transfer during the covid-19 pandemic: did digital cash transfer save lives?

Tampubolon, Gindo

medRxiv

Abstract: BACKGROUND In the first semester of 2020 one in six people in the world (1.36 billion) received cash transfers to tide them over the spreading pandemic that originated in Wuhan. By December 2021 it had claimed up to 18.2 million excess deaths. Compared ... ...

Abstract	BACKGROUND In the first semester of 2020 one in six people in the world (1.36 billion) received cash transfers to tide them over the spreading pandemic that originated in Wuhan. By December 2021 it had claimed up to 18.2 million excess deaths. Compared to no (digital) transfer, did digital cash transfer reduce excess deaths? Serendipitously, two years earlier the world reported levels of trust in science. Did such trust inoculate societies from the pandemic? MATERIALS & METHODS The growing excess deaths literature distinguishes causal factors (e.g. digital transfer) from risk factors (e.g. trust). During the pandemic period, no randomised trials of digital transfer with excess deaths as primary outcome were registered. This study used reports from 170 countries and applied endogenous treatment models to overcome the endogeneity of digital transfer. RESULTS & DISCUSSION I found that serendipity matters: countries with high trust in science suffered fewer excess deaths. But creativity matters more. Digital transfers -some creatively scrambled from scratch- reduced excess deaths by many more. Equally marked, North-South inequity in excess deaths persists, consistent with the concentration of vaccine distributions in the North early on. All three are statistically significant. A series of robustness analyses points to the results being reliable to change in outcome estimates, change in trust sources, and change in treatment of omitted countries. Mechanistic analyses show evidence that digital transfer created leg room for governments to expand stringent restrictions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, while in the South it weakened the correlation between informal economy and excess deaths. This study of the causal effect of digital cash transfer on a hard outcome (excess deaths) revealed ample global digital dividends across the largest number of countries. This new evidence also suggests that improving and monitoring trust in science can offer considerable benefits for humanity.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-05
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2024.04.04.24305360
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Covid-19 impact on food insecurity in Uganda: a dynamic analysis

Ubabukoh, Chisom L / Tampubolon, Gindo

medRxiv

Abstract: Lockdowns were used as a tool to avoid excessive social contact and thus limit the spread of Covid-19. However, the true welfare effects of this policy action are still being determined. This paper studies the impact of these lockdowns on the food ... ...

Abstract	Lockdowns were used as a tool to avoid excessive social contact and thus limit the spread of Covid-19. However, the true welfare effects of this policy action are still being determined. This paper studies the impact of these lockdowns on the food security outcomes of households in Uganda using a dynamic probit model. We find that the most consequential determinant of whether a household9s food security was severely impacted by the lockdown was the initial status of whether a family was food insecure to begin with. Also, an increase in a household9s economic resources (log consumption per person) significantly influences a reduction in the probability of being severely food insecure. Over time, this creates a wedge of greater inequality between the food security of households who were initially food secure and those who were not. This is despite the use of government cash transfers which have turned out to be ineffective.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-09
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2023.03.07.23286899
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Implementation of mobile-health technology is associated with five-year survival among individuals in rural areas of Indonesia.

Maharani, Asri / Sujarwoto / Praveen, Devarsetty / Oceandy, Delvac / Tampubolon, Gindo / Patel, Anushka

PLOS digital health

2024 Volume 3, Issue 4, Page(s) e0000476

Abstract: There is an urgent need to focus on implementing cost-effective health interventions and policies to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in Indonesia. This study aims to evaluate whether a mobile technology-supported primary health care ... ...

Abstract	There is an urgent need to focus on implementing cost-effective health interventions and policies to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in Indonesia. This study aims to evaluate whether a mobile technology-supported primary health care intervention, compared with usual care, would reduce the risk of all-cause mortality among people in rural Indonesia. Data were collected from 11,098 participants in four intervention villages and 10,981 participants in four control villages in Malang district, Indonesia. The baseline data were collected in 2016. All the participants were followed for five years, and the mortality data were recorded. Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the association between the intervention and the risk of all-cause mortality, adjusted for the covariates, including age, gender, educational attainment, employment and marital status, obesity and the presence of diabetes mellitus. During the five-year follow-up, 275 participants died in intervention villages, compared with 362 in control villages. Participants residing in intervention villages were at 18% (95%CI = 4 to 30) lower risk of all-cause mortality. Higher education attainment and being married are associated with lower risks of all-cause mortality among respondents who lived in the control villages, but not among those living in the intervention villages. A mobile technology-supported primary health care intervention had the potential to improve the five-year survival among people living in villages in an upper-middle income country.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-02
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2767-3170
ISSN (online)	2767-3170
DOI	10.1371/journal.pdig.0000476
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Trajectories of the healthy ageing phenotype among middle-aged and older Britons, 2004-2013.

Tampubolon, Gindo

Maturitas

2016 Volume 88, Page(s) 9–15

Abstract: Objectives: Since the ageing population demands a response to ensure older people remain healthy and active, we studied the dynamics of a recently proposed healthy ageing phenotype. We drew the phenotype's trajectories and tested whether their levels ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: Since the ageing population demands a response to ensure older people remain healthy and active, we studied the dynamics of a recently proposed healthy ageing phenotype. We drew the phenotype's trajectories and tested whether their levels and rates of change are influenced by health behaviours, comorbidities and socioeconomic positions earlier in the life course. Design and outcomes: The English Longitudinal Ageing Study, a prospective, nationally representative sample of people aged ≥50 years, measured a set of eight biomarkers which make up the outcome of the healthy ageing phenotype three times over nearly a decade (N2004=5009, N2008=5301, N2013=4455). A cluster of health behaviours, comorbidities and socioeconomic positions were also measured repeatedly. We assessed the phenotype's distribution non-parametrically, then fitted linear mixed models to phenotypic change and further examined time interactions with gender and socioeconomic position. We ran additional analyses to test robustness. Results: Women had a wider distribution of the healthy ageing phenotype than men had. The phenotype declined annually by -0.242 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.352, -0.131). However, there was considerable heterogeneity in the levels and rates of phenotypic change. Women started at higher levels, then declined more steeply by -0.293 (CI: -0.403, -0.183) annually, leading to crossover in the trajectories. Smoking and physical activity assessed on the Allied Dunbar scale were strongly associated with the trajectories. Conclusion: Though marked by secular decline, the trajectories of the healthy ageing phenotype showed distinct socioeconomic gradients. The trajectories were also susceptible to variations in health behaviours, strengthening the case for serial interventions to attain healthy and active ageing.
MeSH term(s)	Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Aging/physiology ; Exercise/physiology ; Female ; Health Behavior ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Prospective Studies ; Sex Factors ; Smoking ; Social Class ; Socioeconomic Factors
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-03-08
Publishing country	Ireland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	80460-5
ISSN	1873-4111 ; 0378-5122
ISSN (online)	1873-4111
ISSN	0378-5122
DOI	10.1016/j.maturitas.2016.03.002
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Article: Repeated systemic inflammation was associated with cognitive deficits in older Britons.

Tampubolon, Gindo

Alzheimer's & dementia (Amsterdam, Netherlands)

2015 Volume 3, Page(s) 1–6

Abstract: Introduction: The relationship of C-reactive protein (CRP) to cognition in the older old group (≥75 years) has recently been found positive on both sides of the Atlantic. We hypothesized that higher levels of CRP and fibrinogen are related to worse ... ...

Abstract	Introduction: The relationship of C-reactive protein (CRP) to cognition in the older old group (≥75 years) has recently been found positive on both sides of the Atlantic. We hypothesized that higher levels of CRP and fibrinogen are related to worse episodic memory throughout later life (≥50 years). Methods: Data are drawn from older Britons free of dementias in the English Longitudinal Study of Aging 2004-2013. We applied growth trajectory models to repeated observations of episodic memory, CRP, and fibrinogen levels (and sociodemographic confounders). We accounted for practice effects in repeated tests of cognition. Results: Higher levels of both inflammatory markers were associated with worse episodic memory, where a fibrinogen effect is evident throughout later life (coefficient -0.154; 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.254 to -0.054). Most importantly, the CRP effect is strongly negative among the older old group (coefficient -0.179; CI -0.320 to -0.038). Discussion: Higher levels of fibrinogen are detrimental to older people's cognition, and among the older old, raised CRP levels are comparably deleterious. Repeated measures of inflammation can be considered in clinical practice as part of a response to the challenge of dementias.
Language	English
Publishing date	2015-12-28
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2832898-X
ISSN	2352-8729
ISSN	2352-8729
DOI	10.1016/j.dadm.2015.11.009
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Article ; Online: Cognitive Ageing in Great Britain in the New Century: Cohort Differences in Episodic Memory.

Tampubolon, Gindo

PloS one

2015 Volume 10, Issue 12, Page(s) e0144907

Abstract: Background: Dementias in high income countries are set to be the third major burden of disease even as older people are increasingly required to think for themselves how to provide for their lives in retirement. Meanwhile the period of older age ... ...

Abstract	Background: Dementias in high income countries are set to be the third major burden of disease even as older people are increasingly required to think for themselves how to provide for their lives in retirement. Meanwhile the period of older age continues to extend with increase in life expectancy. This challenge demands an understanding of how cognition changes over an extended period in later life. But studying cognitive ageing in the population faces a difficulty from the fact that older respondents are liable to leave (attrite) before study completion. This study tested three hypotheses: trajectories of cognitive ageing in Britain show an improvement beyond the age of 50; and they are lifted by secular improvement in cognition across cohorts; lastly they are susceptible to distortion due to attrition. Methods and findings: Using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, this paper studied trajectories of episodic memory of Britons aged 50-89 from 2002 to 2013 (N = 5931). Using joint models the analysis found that levels of episodic memory follow a curvilinear shape, not a steady decline, in later life. The findings also revealed secular improvement in cognitive ageing such that as a cohort is being replaced episodic memory levels in the population improve. The analysis lastly demonstrated that failure to simultaneously model attrition can produce distorted pictures of cognitive ageing. Conclusion: Old age in this century is not necessarily a period dominated by cognitive decline. In identifying behavioural factors associated with better cognitive ageing, such as social connections of traditional and online kinds, the paper raises possibilities of mustering an adequate response to the cognition challenge.
MeSH term(s)	Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cognition ; Cognitive Aging ; Female ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Memory, Episodic ; Middle Aged ; United Kingdom/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2015-12-29
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0144907
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Growing Up in Poverty, Growing Old in Infirmity: The Long Arm of Childhood Conditions in Great Britain.

Tampubolon, Gindo

PloS one

2015 Volume 10, Issue 12, Page(s) e0144722

Abstract: Background: The ageing population poses a tremendous challenge in understanding the sources of inequalities in health. Though they appear to be far removed, childhood conditions are known to be inextricably linked with adult health, and in turn on ... ...

Abstract	Background: The ageing population poses a tremendous challenge in understanding the sources of inequalities in health. Though they appear to be far removed, childhood conditions are known to be inextricably linked with adult health, and in turn on health in later life. The long arm of childhood conditions hypothesis is often tested using recollection of childhood circumstances, but such subjective recall can yield potentially inaccurate or possibly biased inferences. We tested the long arm hypothesis on three outcomes in later life, arrayed from objective to subjective health, namely: gait speed, episodic memory and mental health. Methods and findings: We used the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2006 enriched with retrospective life history (N = 5,913). To deal with recall problems two solutions, covariate measurement and endogenous treatment models, were applied. Retrospective childhood material lack includes growing up without running hot or cold water, fixed bath, indoor lavatory and central heating. Adjustment is made for an extensive set of confounders including sex, age, adult health, wealth, education, occupation, social support, social connections, chronic conditions, smoking, drinking, and physical exercise. It is found that material poverty when growing up shows no association with health when growing old, assuming accurate recall. Once recall problems are controlled, we found that childhood material poverty changes inversely with later life health. Conclusion: A poorer childhood goes with slower gait, poorer memory and more depression in later life. This result provides a further impetus to eliminate child poverty.
MeSH term(s)	Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child Health ; Female ; Geriatric Assessment ; Health Status ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Mental Health ; Middle Aged ; Poverty ; Retrospective Studies ; Socioeconomic Factors ; United Kingdom/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2015-12-16
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0144722
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Delineating the third age: joint models of older people's quality of life and attrition in Britain 2002-2010.

Tampubolon, Gindo

Aging & mental health

2015 Volume 19, Issue 7, Page(s) 576–583

Abstract: Objectives: In the public mind, later life is being transformed by the emerging possibility of a flourishing third age with sustained quality of life. We draw trajectories of life quality measured using CASP-19 over eight years. We refine these ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: In the public mind, later life is being transformed by the emerging possibility of a flourishing third age with sustained quality of life. We draw trajectories of life quality measured using CASP-19 over eight years. We refine these trajectories by jointly modelling attrition, since older people tend to leave longitudinal studies (attrite) not at random. Methods: Growth curve models are applied to the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing waves 1 to 5. Then joint model is estimated where attrition is considered. Extensive predictors are entered including demographic attributes, social and economic status, health conditions, and behaviours. Results: Strong non-linear age trajectory of life quality is revealed by the growth curve models where the peak is achieved in the late 60s. Then the joint model uncovers the peak somewhat later in time, and also reveals secular improvement in life quality experienced by recent cohorts. Sharp estimates for many predictors of higher levels of life quality are also found. Conclusion: For the first time, the trajectories of life quality in the third age are drawn and improvement across cohorts is demonstrated. The contributions are estimated for predictors amenable to intervention such as social capital. This can help in policy discussion on improving the lives of older people in the third age.
MeSH term(s)	Age Factors ; Aged ; Aging/psychology ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Statistical ; Quality of Life/psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United Kingdom/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2015-02-02
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1474804-6
ISSN	1364-6915 ; 1360-7863
ISSN (online)	1364-6915
ISSN	1360-7863
DOI	10.1080/13607863.2014.1003279
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Article ; Online: Cognitive Ageing in Great Britain in the New Century

Gindo Tampubolon

PLoS ONE, Vol 10, Iss 12, p e

Cohort Differences in Episodic Memory.

2015 Volume 0144907

Abstract: BACKGROUND:Dementias in high income countries are set to be the third major burden of disease even as older people are increasingly required to think for themselves how to provide for their lives in retirement. Meanwhile the period of older age continues ...

Abstract	BACKGROUND:Dementias in high income countries are set to be the third major burden of disease even as older people are increasingly required to think for themselves how to provide for their lives in retirement. Meanwhile the period of older age continues to extend with increase in life expectancy. This challenge demands an understanding of how cognition changes over an extended period in later life. But studying cognitive ageing in the population faces a difficulty from the fact that older respondents are liable to leave (attrite) before study completion. This study tested three hypotheses: trajectories of cognitive ageing in Britain show an improvement beyond the age of 50; and they are lifted by secular improvement in cognition across cohorts; lastly they are susceptible to distortion due to attrition. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, this paper studied trajectories of episodic memory of Britons aged 50-89 from 2002 to 2013 (N = 5931). Using joint models the analysis found that levels of episodic memory follow a curvilinear shape, not a steady decline, in later life. The findings also revealed secular improvement in cognitive ageing such that as a cohort is being replaced episodic memory levels in the population improve. The analysis lastly demonstrated that failure to simultaneously model attrition can produce distorted pictures of cognitive ageing. CONCLUSION:Old age in this century is not necessarily a period dominated by cognitive decline. In identifying behavioural factors associated with better cognitive ageing, such as social connections of traditional and online kinds, the paper raises possibilities of mustering an adequate response to the cognition challenge.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	120
Language	English
Publishing date	2015-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Growing Up in Poverty, Growing Old in Infirmity

Gindo Tampubolon

PLoS ONE, Vol 10, Iss 12, p e

The Long Arm of Childhood Conditions in Great Britain.

2015 Volume 0144722

Abstract: The ageing population poses a tremendous challenge in understanding the sources of inequalities in health. Though they appear to be far removed, childhood conditions are known to be inextricably linked with adult health, and in turn on health in later ... ...

Abstract	The ageing population poses a tremendous challenge in understanding the sources of inequalities in health. Though they appear to be far removed, childhood conditions are known to be inextricably linked with adult health, and in turn on health in later life. The long arm of childhood conditions hypothesis is often tested using recollection of childhood circumstances, but such subjective recall can yield potentially inaccurate or possibly biased inferences. We tested the long arm hypothesis on three outcomes in later life, arrayed from objective to subjective health, namely: gait speed, episodic memory and mental health.We used the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2006 enriched with retrospective life history (N = 5,913). To deal with recall problems two solutions, covariate measurement and endogenous treatment models, were applied. Retrospective childhood material lack includes growing up without running hot or cold water, fixed bath, indoor lavatory and central heating. Adjustment is made for an extensive set of confounders including sex, age, adult health, wealth, education, occupation, social support, social connections, chronic conditions, smoking, drinking, and physical exercise. It is found that material poverty when growing up shows no association with health when growing old, assuming accurate recall. Once recall problems are controlled, we found that childhood material poverty changes inversely with later life health.A poorer childhood goes with slower gait, poorer memory and more depression in later life. This result provides a further impetus to eliminate child poverty.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	300 ; 360
Language	English
Publishing date	2015-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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