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Article ; Online: A consensus of evidence: The role of SPI-M-O in the UK COVID-19 response.

Medley, Graham F

2022 Volume 86, Page(s) 100918

MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Consensus ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; United Kingdom/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-10-01
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2667413-0
ISSN	2212-4934 ; 2212-4926
ISSN (online)	2212-4934
ISSN	2212-4926
DOI	10.1016/j.jbior.2022.100918
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Article ; Online: Herd immunity confusion.

Medley, Graham F

Lancet (London, England)

2020 Volume 396, Issue 10263, Page(s) 1634–1635

MeSH term(s)	Confusion ; Humans ; Immunity, Herd ; Vaccination
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-10-22
Publishing country	England
Document type	Letter ; Comment
ZDB-ID	3306-6
ISSN	1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
ISSN (online)	1474-547X
ISSN	0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
DOI	10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32167-X
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Article ; Online: Using Passive Surveillance to Maintain Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Model-Based Exploration.

Minter, Amanda / Medley, Graham F / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

2024 Volume 78, Issue Supplement_2, Page(s) S169–S174

Abstract: Background: Great progress is being made toward the goal of elimination as a public health problem for neglected tropical diseases such as leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, Buruli ulcer, and visceral leishmaniasis, which relies on intensified ... ...

Abstract	Background: Great progress is being made toward the goal of elimination as a public health problem for neglected tropical diseases such as leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, Buruli ulcer, and visceral leishmaniasis, which relies on intensified disease management and case finding. However, strategies for maintaining this goal are still under discussion. Passive surveillance is a core pillar of a long-term, sustainable surveillance program. Methods: We use a generic model of disease transmission with slow epidemic growth rates and cases detected through severe symptoms and passive detection to evaluate under what circumstances passive detection alone can keep transmission under control. Results: Reducing the period of infectiousness due to decreasing time to treatment has a small effect on reducing transmission. Therefore, to prevent resurgence, passive surveillance needs to be very efficient. For some diseases, the treatment time and level of passive detection needed to prevent resurgence is unlikely to be obtainable. Conclusions: The success of a passive surveillance program crucially depends on what proportion of cases are detected, how much of their infectious period is reduced, and the underlying reproduction number of the disease. Modeling suggests that relying on passive detection alone is unlikely to be enough to maintain elimination goals.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology ; Neglected Diseases/prevention & control ; Disease Eradication/methods ; Public Health ; Tropical Medicine ; Population Surveillance/methods
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-25
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1099781-7
ISSN	1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
ISSN (online)	1537-6591
ISSN	1058-4838
DOI	10.1093/cid/ciae097
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Article ; Online: Herd immunity confusion

Medley, Graham F

Lancet

Keywords	covid19
Publisher	PMC
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32167-x
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Improving the Cost-efficiency of Preventive Chemotherapy: Impact of New Diagnostics on Stopping Decisions for Control of Schistosomiasis.

Coffeng, Luc E / Graham, Matthew / Browning, Raiha / Kura, Klodeta / Diggle, Peter J / Denwood, Matthew / Medley, Graham F / Anderson, Roy M / de Vlas, Sake J

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

2024 Volume 78, Issue Supplement_2, Page(s) S153–S159

Abstract: Background: Control of schistosomiasis (SCH) relies on the regular distribution of preventive chemotherapy (PC) over many years. For the sake of sustainable SCH control, a decision must be made at some stage to scale down or stop PC. These "stopping ... ...

Abstract	Background: Control of schistosomiasis (SCH) relies on the regular distribution of preventive chemotherapy (PC) over many years. For the sake of sustainable SCH control, a decision must be made at some stage to scale down or stop PC. These "stopping decisions" are based on population surveys that assess whether infection levels are sufficiently low. However, the limited sensitivity of the currently used diagnostic (Kato-Katz [KK]) to detect low-intensity infections is a concern. Therefore, the use of new, more sensitive, molecular diagnostics has been proposed. Methods: Through statistical analysis of Schistosoma mansoni egg counts collected from Burundi and a simulation study using an established transmission model for schistosomiasis, we investigated the extent to which more sensitive diagnostics can improve decision making regarding stopping or continuing PC for the control of S. mansoni. Results: We found that KK-based strategies perform reasonably well for determining when to stop PC at a local scale. Use of more sensitive diagnostics leads to a marginally improved health impact (person-years lived with heavy infection) and comes at a cost of continuing PC for longer (up to around 3 years), unless the decision threshold for stopping PC is adapted upward. However, if this threshold is set too high, PC may be stopped prematurely, resulting in a rebound of infection levels and disease burden (+45% person-years of heavy infection). Conclusions: We conclude that the potential value of more sensitive diagnostics lies more in the reduction of survey-related costs than in the direct health impact of improved parasite control.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Animals ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Schistosoma mansoni/isolation & purification ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/diagnosis ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/prevention & control ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/drug therapy ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/epidemiology ; Parasite Egg Count ; Anthelmintics/therapeutic use ; Anthelmintics/economics ; Female ; Male ; Schistosomiasis/diagnosis ; Schistosomiasis/prevention & control ; Schistosomiasis/drug therapy ; Schistosomiasis/epidemiology ; Adult ; Adolescent ; Child ; Chemoprevention/economics ; Chemoprevention/methods ; Young Adult ; Sensitivity and Specificity
Chemical Substances	Anthelmintics
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-25
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1099781-7
ISSN	1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
ISSN (online)	1537-6591
ISSN	1058-4838
DOI	10.1093/cid/ciae020
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Article ; Online: Optimal control analysis of a transmission interruption model for the soil-transmitted helminth infections in Kenya.

Okoyo, Collins / Orowe, Idah / Onyango, Nelson / Montresor, Antonio / Mwandawiro, Charles / Medley, Graham F

Current research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases

2023 Volume 4, Page(s) 100162

Abstract: Kenya is among the countries endemic for soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) with over 66 subcounties and over 6 million individuals being at-risk of infection. Currently, the country is implementing mass drug administration (MDA) to all the at-risk ... ...

Abstract	Kenya is among the countries endemic for soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) with over 66 subcounties and over 6 million individuals being at-risk of infection. Currently, the country is implementing mass drug administration (MDA) to all the at-risk groups as the mainstay control strategy. This study aimed to develop and analyze an optimal control (OC) model, from a transmission interruption model, to obtain an optimal control strategy from a mix of three strategies evaluated. The study used the Pontryagin's maximum principle to solve, numerically, the OC model. The analysis results clearly demonstrated that water and sanitation when implemented together with the MDA programme offer the best chances of eliminating these tenacious and damaging parasites. Thus, we advocate for optimal implementation of the combined mix of the two interventions in order to achieve STH elimination in Kenya, and globally, in a short implementation period of less than eight years.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-01
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2667-114X
ISSN (online)	2667-114X
DOI	10.1016/j.crpvbd.2023.100162
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti.

Antony Oliver, Mary Chriselda / Graham, Matthew / Gass, Katherine M / Medley, Graham F / Clark, Jessica / Davis, Emma L / Reimer, Lisa J / King, Jonathan D / Pouwels, Koen B / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

2024 Volume 78, Issue Supplement_2, Page(s) S160–S168

Abstract: Background: The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are ... ...

Abstract	Background: The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are the main transmission vector, suggesting that a more stringent criterion is required for MDA decision making in these settings. Methods: We use a transmission model to investigate how a lower prevalence threshold (<1% antigenemia [Ag] prevalence compared with <2% Ag prevalence) for MDA decision making would affect the probability of local elimination, health outcomes, the number of MDA rounds, including restarts, and program costs associated with MDA and surveys across different scenarios. To determine the cost-effectiveness of switching to a lower threshold, we simulated 65% and 80% MDA coverage of the total population for different willingness to pay per disability-adjusted life-year averted for India ($446.07), Tanzania ($389.83), and Haiti ($219.84). Results: Our results suggest that with a lower Ag threshold, there is a small proportion of simulations where extra rounds are required to reach the target, but this also reduces the need to restart MDA later in the program. For 80% coverage, the lower threshold is cost-effective across all baseline prevalences for India, Tanzania, and Haiti. For 65% MDA coverage, the lower threshold is not cost-effective due to additional MDA rounds, although it increases the probability of local elimination. Valuing the benefits of elimination to align with the GPELF goals, we find that a willingness to pay per capita government expenditure of approximately $1000-$4000 for 1% increase in the probability of local elimination would be required to make a lower threshold cost-effective. Conclusions: Lower Ag thresholds for stopping MDAs generally mean a higher probability of local elimination, reducing long-term costs and health impacts. However, they may also lead to an increased number of MDA rounds required to reach the lower threshold and, therefore, increased short-term costs. Collectively, our analyses highlight that lower target Ag thresholds have the potential to assist programs in achieving lymphatic filariasis goals.
MeSH term(s)	Elephantiasis, Filarial/prevention & control ; Elephantiasis, Filarial/epidemiology ; Elephantiasis, Filarial/economics ; Humans ; Mass Drug Administration/economics ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Haiti/epidemiology ; Tanzania/epidemiology ; Prevalence ; India/epidemiology ; Animals ; Disease Eradication/economics ; Disease Eradication/methods ; Filaricides/therapeutic use ; Filaricides/administration & dosage ; Filaricides/economics ; Antigens, Helminth/blood ; Culex
Chemical Substances	Filaricides ; Antigens, Helminth
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-25
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1099781-7
ISSN	1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
ISSN (online)	1537-6591
ISSN	1058-4838
DOI	10.1093/cid/ciae108
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Article ; Online: Correction: The local burden of disease during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England: estimation using different data sources from changing surveillance practices.

Nightingale, Emily S / Abbott, Sam / Russell, Timothy W / Lowe, Rachel / Medley, Graham F / Brady, Oliver J

BMC public health

2022 Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 1140

Language	English
Publishing date	2022-06-07
Publishing country	England
Document type	Published Erratum
ZDB-ID	2041338-5
ISSN	1471-2458 ; 1471-2458
ISSN (online)	1471-2458
ISSN	1471-2458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-022-13320-8
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?

Minter, Amanda / Pellis, Lorenzo / Medley, Graham F / Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

2021 Volume 72, Issue Suppl 3, Page(s) S129–S133

Abstract: As programs move closer toward the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of reduction in morbidity, elimination as a public health problem or elimination of transmission, countries will be faced with planning the next stages of surveillance and control ... ...

Abstract	As programs move closer toward the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of reduction in morbidity, elimination as a public health problem or elimination of transmission, countries will be faced with planning the next stages of surveillance and control in low prevalence settings. Mathematical models of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) will need to go beyond predicting the effect of different treatment programs on these goals and on to predicting whether the gains can be sustained. One of the most important challenges will be identifying the policy goal and the right constraints on interventions and surveillance over the long term, as a single policy option will not achieve all aims-for example, minimizing morbidity and minimizing costs cannot both be achieved. As NTDs move toward 2030 and beyond, more nuanced intervention choices will be informed by quantitative analyses which are adapted to national context.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Neglected Diseases ; Policy ; Public Health ; Tropical Medicine ; World Health Organization
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-27
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1099781-7
ISSN	1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
ISSN (online)	1537-6591
ISSN	1058-4838
DOI	10.1093/cid/ciab188
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Challenges of using modelling evidence in the visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme in India.

Dial, Natalie J / Croft, Simon L / Chapman, Lloyd A C / Terris-Prestholt, Fern / Medley, Graham F

PLOS global public health

2022 Volume 2, Issue 11, Page(s) e0001049

Abstract: As India comes closer to the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem, surveillance efforts and elimination targets must be continuously revised and strengthened. Mathematical modelling is a compelling research discipline for ...

Abstract	As India comes closer to the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem, surveillance efforts and elimination targets must be continuously revised and strengthened. Mathematical modelling is a compelling research discipline for informing policy and programme design in its capacity to project incidence across space and time, the likelihood of achieving benchmarks, and the impact of different interventions. To gauge the extent to which modelling informs policy in India, this qualitative analysis explores how and whether policy makers understand, value, and reference recently produced VL modelling research. Sixteen semi-structured interviews were carried out with both users- and producers- of VL modelling research, guided by a knowledge utilisation framework grounded in knowledge translation theory. Participants reported that barriers to knowledge utilisation include 1) scepticism that models accurately reflect transmission dynamics, 2) failure of modellers to apply their analyses to specific programme operations, and 3) lack of accountability in the process of translating knowledge to policy. Political trust and support are needed to translate knowledge into programme activities, and employment of a communication intermediary may be a necessary approach to improve this process.
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-29
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2767-3375
ISSN (online)	2767-3375
DOI	10.1371/journal.pgph.0001049
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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