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  1. Article ; Online: The effective reproductive number of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is several times relative to Delta.

    Liu, Ying / Rocklöv, Joacim

    Journal of travel medicine

    2022  Volume 29, Issue 3

    MeSH term(s) Basic Reproduction Number ; COVID-19 ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-03-09
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1212504-0
    ISSN 1708-8305 ; 1195-1982
    ISSN (online) 1708-8305
    ISSN 1195-1982
    DOI 10.1093/jtm/taac037
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 4120: Show issues Location:
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  2. Article ; Online: Nowcasting COVID-19 Statistics Reported with Delay: A Case-Study of Sweden and the UK.

    Altmejd, Adam / Rocklöv, Joacim / Wallin, Jonas

    International journal of environmental research and public health

    2023  Volume 20, Issue 4

    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of ... ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When studied by event date, such delays also risk creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here, we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the "removal method"-a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19 ; Pandemics ; Sweden ; Hospitalization ; United Kingdom
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-02-09
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2175195-X
    ISSN 1660-4601 ; 1661-7827
    ISSN (online) 1660-4601
    ISSN 1661-7827
    DOI 10.3390/ijerph20043040
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  3. Article ; Online: The reproductive number of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is far higher compared to the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus.

    Liu, Ying / Rocklöv, Joacim

    Journal of travel medicine

    2021  Volume 28, Issue 7

    MeSH term(s) Basic Reproduction Number ; COVID-19 ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2/physiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-06-14
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1212504-0
    ISSN 1708-8305 ; 1195-1982
    ISSN (online) 1708-8305
    ISSN 1195-1982
    DOI 10.1093/jtm/taab124
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    Zs.A 4120: Show issues Location:
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  4. Article ; Online: Climate science: Misconceptions of global catastrophe.

    Rocklöv, Joacim

    Nature

    2016  Volume 532, Issue 7599, Page(s) 317–318

    MeSH term(s) Climate Change/statistics & numerical data ; Forecasting ; Public Opinion ; Weather
    Language English
    Publishing date 2016-04-28
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 120714-3
    ISSN 1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
    ISSN (online) 1476-4687
    ISSN 0028-0836
    DOI 10.1038/532317a
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  5. Article: Climate change and the rising infectiousness of dengue.

    Rocklöv, Joacim / Tozan, Yesim

    Emerging topics in life sciences

    2021  Volume 3, Issue 2, Page(s) 133–142

    Abstract: The disease burden of dengue has been steadily rising over the last half-century due to a multitude of factors, including global trade and travel, urbanization, population growth, and climate variability and change, that facilitate conductive conditions ... ...

    Abstract The disease burden of dengue has been steadily rising over the last half-century due to a multitude of factors, including global trade and travel, urbanization, population growth, and climate variability and change, that facilitate conductive conditions for the proliferation of dengue vectors and viruses. This review describes how climate, specifically temperature, affects the vectors' ability to cause and sustain outbreaks, and how the infectiousness of dengue is influenced by climatic change. The review is focused on the core concepts and frameworks derived in the area of epidemiology of mosquito-borne diseases and outlines the sensitivity of vectorial capacity and vector-to-human transmission on climatic conditions. It further reviews studies linking mathematical or statistical models of disease transmission to scenarios of projected climate change and provides recommendations for future research directions.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-02-01
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2882721-1
    ISSN 2397-8554 ; 2397-8554 ; 2397-8562
    ISSN (online) 2397-8554
    ISSN 2397-8554 ; 2397-8562
    DOI 10.1042/ETLS20180123
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  6. Article ; Online: Covid-19 health care demand and mortality in Sweden in response to non-pharmaceutical (NPIs) mitigation and suppression scenarios

    Rocklov, Joacim

    medRxiv

    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-03-23
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.03.20.20039594
    Database COVID19

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  7. Article ; Online: What is the reproductive number of yellow fever?

    Liu, Ying / Rocklöv, Joacim

    Journal of travel medicine

    2020  Volume 27, Issue 7

    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Yellow Fever/epidemiology ; Yellow Fever/prevention & control ; Yellow Fever Vaccine ; Yellow fever virus
    Chemical Substances Yellow Fever Vaccine
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-09-01
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1212504-0
    ISSN 1708-8305 ; 1195-1982
    ISSN (online) 1708-8305
    ISSN 1195-1982
    DOI 10.1093/jtm/taaa156
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    Zs.A 4120: Show issues Location:
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  8. Article ; Online: Author Correction: Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control.

    Rocklöv, Joacim / Dubrow, Robert

    Nature immunology

    2020  Volume 21, Issue 6, Page(s) 695

    Abstract: An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. ...

    Abstract An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-26
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Published Erratum
    ZDB-ID 2016987-5
    ISSN 1529-2916 ; 1529-2908
    ISSN (online) 1529-2916
    ISSN 1529-2908
    DOI 10.1038/s41590-020-0692-7
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    Zs.A 5294: Show issues Location:
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  9. Article ; Online: A Method for Estimating the Number of Infections From the Reported Number of Deaths.

    Brännström, Åke / Sjödin, Henrik / Rocklöv, Joacim

    Frontiers in public health

    2022  Volume 9, Page(s) 648545

    Abstract: At the outset of an epidemic, available case data typically underestimate the total number of infections due to insufficient testing, potentially hampering public responses. Here, we present a method for statistically estimating the true number of cases ... ...

    Abstract At the outset of an epidemic, available case data typically underestimate the total number of infections due to insufficient testing, potentially hampering public responses. Here, we present a method for statistically estimating the true number of cases with confidence intervals from the reported number of deaths and estimates of the infection fatality ratio; assuming that the time from infection to death follows a known distribution. While the method is applicable to any epidemic with a significant mortality rate, we exemplify the method by applying it to COVID-19. Our findings indicate that the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in March 2020 was likely to be at least one order of magnitude higher than the reported cases, with the degree of underestimation among the countries considered being particularly high in the United Kingdom.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Epidemics ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United Kingdom/epidemiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-01-20
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2711781-9
    ISSN 2296-2565 ; 2296-2565
    ISSN (online) 2296-2565
    ISSN 2296-2565
    DOI 10.3389/fpubh.2021.648545
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  10. Article ; Online: A Methodological Framework for Economic Evaluation of Operational Response to Vector-Borne Diseases Based on Early Warning Systems.

    Tozan, Yesim / Odhiambo Sewe, Maquines / Kim, Sooyoung / Rocklöv, Joacim

    The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene

    2023  Volume 108, Issue 3, Page(s) 627–633

    Abstract: Despite significant advances in improving the predictive models for vector-borne diseases, only a few countries have integrated an early warning system (EWS) with predictive and response capabilities into their disease surveillance systems. The limited ... ...

    Abstract Despite significant advances in improving the predictive models for vector-borne diseases, only a few countries have integrated an early warning system (EWS) with predictive and response capabilities into their disease surveillance systems. The limited understanding of forecast performance and uncertainties by decision-makers is one of the primary factors that precludes its operationalization in preparedness and response planning. Further, predictive models exhibit a decrease in forecast skill with longer lead times, a trade-off between forecast accuracy and timeliness and effectiveness of action. This study presents a methodological framework to evaluate the economic value of EWS-triggered responses from the health system perspective. Assuming an operational EWS in place, the framework makes explicit the trade-offs between forecast accuracy, timeliness of action, effectiveness of response, and costs, and uses the net benefit analysis, which measures the benefits of taking action minus the associated costs. Uncertainty in disease forecasts and other parameters is accounted for through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The output is the probability distribution of the net benefit estimates at given forecast lead times. A non-negative net benefit and the probability of yielding such are considered a general signal that the EWS-triggered response at a given lead time is economically viable. In summary, the proposed framework translates uncertainties associated with disease forecasts and other parameters into decision uncertainty by quantifying the economic risk associated with operational response to vector-borne disease events of potential importance predicted by an EWS. The goal is to facilitate a more informed and transparent public health decision-making under uncertainty.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Uncertainty ; Probability
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-01-16
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2942-7
    ISSN 1476-1645 ; 0002-9637
    ISSN (online) 1476-1645
    ISSN 0002-9637
    DOI 10.4269/ajtmh.22-0471
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