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  1. Article ; Online: How a school holiday led to persistent COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe.

    Arnarson, Björn Thor

    Scientific reports

    2021  Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 24390

    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of large outbreaks on the persistence of Covid-19 over time. Using data from 650 European regions in 14 countries, I first show that winter school holidays in late February/early March 2020 (weeks 8, 9 and 10) led to ... ...

    Abstract This paper investigates the role of large outbreaks on the persistence of Covid-19 over time. Using data from 650 European regions in 14 countries, I first show that winter school holidays in late February/early March 2020 (weeks 8, 9 and 10) led to large regional outbreaks of Covid-19 in the spring with the spread being 60% and up-to over 90% higher compared to regions with earlier school holidays. While the impact of these initial large outbreaks fades away over the summer months, it systematically reappears from the fall as regions with school holidays in weeks 8, 9 and 10 had 30-70% higher spread. This suggests that following a large outbreak, there is a strong element of underlying (latent) regional persistence of Covid-19. The strong degree of persistence highlights the long-term benefits of effective (initial) containment policies, as once a large outbreak has occurred, Covid-19 persists. This result emphasizes the need for vaccinations against Covid-19 in regions that have recently experienced large outbreaks but are well below herd-immunity, to avoid a new surge of cases.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/virology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Europe/epidemiology ; Holidays ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ; Schools ; Urbanization
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-12-22
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-021-03927-z
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: How a school holiday led to persistent COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe

    Björn Thor Arnarson

    Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2021  Volume 11

    Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the role of large outbreaks on the persistence of Covid-19 over time. Using data from 650 European regions in 14 countries, I first show that winter school holidays in late February/early March 2020 (weeks 8, 9 and 10) ... ...

    Abstract Abstract This paper investigates the role of large outbreaks on the persistence of Covid-19 over time. Using data from 650 European regions in 14 countries, I first show that winter school holidays in late February/early March 2020 (weeks 8, 9 and 10) led to large regional outbreaks of Covid-19 in the spring with the spread being 60% and up-to over 90% higher compared to regions with earlier school holidays. While the impact of these initial large outbreaks fades away over the summer months, it systematically reappears from the fall as regions with school holidays in weeks 8, 9 and 10 had 30–70% higher spread. This suggests that following a large outbreak, there is a strong element of underlying (latent) regional persistence of Covid-19. The strong degree of persistence highlights the long-term benefits of effective (initial) containment policies, as once a large outbreak has occurred, Covid-19 persists. This result emphasizes the need for vaccinations against Covid-19 in regions that have recently experienced large outbreaks but are well below herd-immunity, to avoid a new surge of cases.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Book ; Article ; Online: The Superstar and the Followers

    Arnarson, Björn Thor

    Intra-Firm Product Complementarity in International Trade

    2017  

    Abstract: This paper investigates whether firms' exports of different products within a market are systematically interconnected. Using high-quality Swedish firm-registry data from 1997-2011, I first document that the distribution of firm export sales is skewed ... ...

    Abstract This paper investigates whether firms' exports of different products within a market are systematically interconnected. Using high-quality Swedish firm-registry data from 1997-2011, I first document that the distribution of firm export sales is skewed towards their best performing products ('superstars'). I then use a novel instrumental variable approach to identify if the 'superstar' products induce more trade of non-superstar products. I find evidence that the exports of low-ranked (non-star) products of a firm are contingent on the exports of a single superstar product to each destination. Extending the 'superstar' concept to a 'superstar core' of products strengthens this result. Hence, I find that the exports of non-star products complements the superstar(s) while conversely, the same complementarity is not found using low-ranked products as placebo-superstars. The main contributions of this paper is identifying a new, sizeable and systematic intra-firm-destination one-way demand driven complementarity between products that can explain export sales variation within a market. Ignoring this pattern of between product dependency may lead to an over-emphasis on product scope as products should not be viewed in isolation.
    Keywords ddc:330 ; F10 ; F13 ; F14 ; L10 ; L20 ; Multi-product firms ; product complementarity ; intra-firm product dependence ; within-destination export variation ; Product Demand
    Subject code 381
    Language English
    Publisher Lund: Lund University, School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Book ; Article ; Online: Bridging Trade Barriers

    Arnarson, Björn Thor

    Evaluating Models of Multi-Product Exporters

    2016  

    Abstract: In this paper I investigate the impact of a decrease in trade costs on firms' decisions to export. The main contribution of this paper is to evaluate empirically the theoretical predictions of several models of multi-product exporters. The focus is on ... ...

    Abstract In this paper I investigate the impact of a decrease in trade costs on firms' decisions to export. The main contribution of this paper is to evaluate empirically the theoretical predictions of several models of multi-product exporters. The focus is on the firm export entry decision and the within firm adjustment regarding product scope and intensity. For identification I use a quasi-natural experiment, the introduction of the Öresund Bridge between southern Sweden and Denmark, to analyse the impact on firm behaviour. Using a difference-in-difference methodology, firms in the 'treated' municipality, Malmö, are compared to firms in more geographically distant Gothenburg and Stockholm ('controls'). For the 'treated' manufacturing firms a theoretically consistent positive effect is found for firm entry into exporting, aggregate firm trade flow and the number of products exported. The models of multi-product exporters evaluated do not provide a clear theoretical prediction regarding the impact on average trade value per product. In this paper, however, I find that around 70-80% of the increase in aggregate firm trade value is due to increases in the average trade value per product (the product intensive margin), while only 20-30% is due to increases in the number of products exported (the product extensive margin).
    Keywords ddc:330 ; F10 ; F13 ; F14 ; F15 ; International Trade ; Multi-Product Firms ; Infrastructure ; Market Access ; Quasi-Natural Experiment ; Trade Costs
    Subject code 381
    Language English
    Publisher Lund: Lund University, School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article: The Paternity Leave Act in Iceland ; implications for gender equality in the labour market

    Arnarson, Bjorn Thor / Mitra, Aparna

    Applied economics letters Vol. 17, No. 7/9 , p. 677-680

    2010  Volume 17, Issue 7, Page(s) 677–680

    Author's details Bjorn Thor Arnarson and Aparna Mitra
    Language English
    Size graph. Darst.
    Publisher Routledge
    Publishing place Abingdon
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 1181036-1 ; 1484783-8
    ISSN 1466-4291 ; 1350-4851
    ISSN (online) 1466-4291
    ISSN 1350-4851
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  6. Book ; Online: Bridging trade barriers

    Arnarson, Björn Thor

    evaluating models of multi-product exporters

    (Working paper / Department of Economics, Lund University ; 2015,06)

    2015  

    Author's details Björn Thor Arnarson
    Series title Working paper / Department of Economics, Lund University ; 2015,06
    Keywords Exportwirtschaft ; Mehrproduktfertigung ; Transaktionskosten ; Internationaler Markteintritt ; Dänemark ; Schweden ; Öresund
    Language English
    Size Online-Ressource (37 S.)
    Publisher Department of Economics, Lund University
    Publishing place Lund
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  7. Book ; Article ; Online: Linking Services to Manufacturing Exports

    Arnarson, Björn Thor / Gullstrand, Joakim

    2017  

    Abstract: In this paper we analyse the interplay between services and manufacturing. This is done through identifying and quantifying a direct link between manufacturing exports and the sales by service providers. For identification of this transmittance mechanism, ...

    Abstract In this paper we analyse the interplay between services and manufacturing. This is done through identifying and quantifying a direct link between manufacturing exports and the sales by service providers. For identification of this transmittance mechanism, with the help of highly detailed geographic data, we create a Localised Export Exposure (LEE) variable that captures the variation in demand for service inputs based on nearby exporters. Since service firms are much less geographically specialised than manufacturing firms, we observe a high variation in their exposure to demand changes. This spatial variation in the demand for service inputs results from a variation in local export volumes (LEE); which is used to assess the interplay between manufacturing exports and services. Our results show that a 1% increase in exports increases the volume of sales of service firms by 0.2% (and employment within the firm by 0.06%). The results show also that the link is highly local and the strongest impact is within 20 km of the shock.
    Keywords ddc:330 ; F10 ; F14 ; F60 ; Spillovers ; Services ; Manufacturing Exports ; Input-output linkages
    Subject code 381
    Language English
    Publisher Lund: Lund University, School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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