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Article: Seroprevalence and attainment of herd immunity against SARS CoV-2: A modelling study.

Paul, Abhijit / Kadnur, Harshith B / Ray, Animesh / Chatterjee, Samrat / Wig, Naveet

Journal of family medicine and primary care

2021 Volume 10, Issue 11, Page(s) 4030–4035

Abstract: Objective: The present study aims to predict the likelihood of and likely time required to attain herd immunity against COVID-19 in New Delhi due to natural infection.: Method: An ODE-based mathematical model was constructed by extending the ... ...

Abstract	Objective: The present study aims to predict the likelihood of and likely time required to attain herd immunity against COVID-19 in New Delhi due to natural infection. Method: An ODE-based mathematical model was constructed by extending the classical SEIR model to predict the seroprevalence rate. We estimated the parameter values for Delhi using available data (reported cases and the seroprevalence rate) and used them for future prediction. Also, changes in the seroprevalence rate with different possibilities of reinfection were predicted. Results: Maximum seroprevalence rate obtained through our model is 31.65% and also a reduction in the seroprevalence rate was observed for the upcoming one month (month of January, 2021) due to the reduced transmission rate. After increasing the transmission rate to the value same as the third wave in New Delhi, we obtained a maximum value of 54.96%. This maximum value significantly decreased with the reduction in the reinfection possibilities. Also, a little impact of the duration of persistence of antibodies, 180 vs 105 days, was observed on the maximum seroprevalence. Conclusion: This modelling study suggests that natural infection alone, as gauged by serial sero-surveys, may not result in attainment of herd immunity in the state of Delhi.
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-11-29
Publishing country	India
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2735275-4
ISSN	2278-7135 ; 2249-4863
ISSN (online)	2278-7135
ISSN	2249-4863
DOI	10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_830_21
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Seroprevalence and attainment of herd immunity against SARS CoV-2

Abhijit Paul / Harshith B Kadnur / Animesh Ray / Samrat Chatterjee / Naveet Wig

Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Vol 10, Iss 11, Pp 4030-

A modelling study

2021 Volume 4035

Abstract: Objective: The present study aims to predict the likelihood of and likely time required to attain herd immunity against COVID-19 in New Delhi due to natural infection. Method: An ODE-based mathematical model was constructed by extending the classical ... ...

Abstract	Objective: The present study aims to predict the likelihood of and likely time required to attain herd immunity against COVID-19 in New Delhi due to natural infection. Method: An ODE-based mathematical model was constructed by extending the classical SEIR model to predict the seroprevalence rate. We estimated the parameter values for Delhi using available data (reported cases and the seroprevalence rate) and used them for future prediction. Also, changes in the seroprevalence rate with different possibilities of reinfection were predicted. Results: Maximum seroprevalence rate obtained through our model is 31.65% and also a reduction in the seroprevalence rate was observed for the upcoming one month (month of January, 2021) due to the reduced transmission rate. After increasing the transmission rate to the value same as the third wave in New Delhi, we obtained a maximum value of 54.96%. This maximum value significantly decreased with the reduction in the reinfection possibilities. Also, a little impact of the duration of persistence of antibodies, 180 vs 105 days, was observed on the maximum seroprevalence. Conclusion: This modelling study suggests that natural infection alone, as gauged by serial sero-surveys, may not result in attainment of herd immunity in the state of Delhi.
Keywords	covid-19 ; herd immunity ; mathematical model ; seroprevalence ; sars cov-2 ; Medicine ; R
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Seroprevalence and attainment of herd immunity against SARS CoV-2: A modelling study

Paul, Abhijit / Kadnur, Harshith B / Ray, Animesh / Chatterjee, Samrat

medRxiv

Abstract: Objective: The present study is aims to predict the likelihood of and likely time required to attain herd immunity against COVID-19 in New Delhi due to natural infection. Method: An ODE based mathematical model was constructed by extending the classical ... ...

Abstract	Objective: The present study is aims to predict the likelihood of and likely time required to attain herd immunity against COVID-19 in New Delhi due to natural infection. Method: An ODE based mathematical model was constructed by extending the classical SEIR model to predict the seroprevalence rate in Delhi. We estimated the parameter values for Delhi using available data (reported cases and the seroprevalence rate) and used them for future prediction. We also attempted to capture the changes in the seroprevalence rate with different possibilities of reinfection. Results: Maximum seroprevalence rate obtained through our model is 31.65% and also a reduction in the seroprevalence rate was observed for the upcoming one month (month of January, 2021) due to the reduced transmission rate. After increasing the transmission rate to the value same as the third wave in New Delhi, we obtained a maximum value of 54.96%. This maximum value significantly decreased with the reduction in the reinfection possibilities. Also, a little impact of the duration of persistence of antibodies, 180 vs 105 days, was observed on the maximum seroprevalence. Conclusion: This modelling study suggests that natural infection alone, as gauged by serial sero-surveys, will not result in attainment of herd immunity in the state of Delhi.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-01-26
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2021.01.22.21250328
Database	COVID19

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Article: Hydroxychloroquine pre-exposure prophylaxis for COVID-19 among healthcare workers: Initial experience from India.

Kadnur, Harshith B / Aggarwal, Anivita / Soneja, Manish / Singh, Komal / Mittal, Ankit / Nischal, Neeraj / Tirlangi, Praveen / Khan, Adil Rashid / Desai, Devashish / Gupta, Ankesh / Kumar, Arvind / Jorwal, Pankaj / Biswas, Ashutosh / Pandey, Ravindra Mohan / Wig, Naveet / Guleria, Randeep

Journal of family medicine and primary care

2022 Volume 11, Issue 3, Page(s) 1140–1145

Abstract: Background: Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) had generated considerable interest for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prophylaxis. We conducted a prospective observational study at a tertiary care hospital in India, with dedicated COVID-19 care facilities.!## ...

Abstract	Background: Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) had generated considerable interest for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prophylaxis. We conducted a prospective observational study at a tertiary care hospital in India, with dedicated COVID-19 care facilities. Objectives: Primary objective was incidence of adverse effects, secondary objective being efficacy in preventing COVID-19. Methods: Healthcare workers were recruited and grouped based on voluntary HCQ prophylaxis as per national guidelines. Side effects in HCQ group were graded in accordance with national cancer institute-common terminology criteria for adverse events (NCI-CTCAE) version 5.0. At 3-7-week follow-up, groups were compared for COVID-19 exposure, symptoms development and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RT-PCR results. Results: Among 358 participants recruited, 216 (60.3%) were males and mean age was 31.2 ± 6.6 years. Chemoprophylaxis was initiated by 258 (72%) participants. After loading dose, 7 (2.7%) reported grade 2 and 1 (0.4%) grade 3 adverse effects. Discontinuation of HCQ due to side effects was reported in 11 (4.3%) participants. Electrocardiogram was done by 50 (19.4%) participants on HCQ; no abnormalities were noted. A total of 106 (41%) among those taking and 63 (63%) among those not taking HCQ were tested for SARS-CoV-2 due to influenza-like illness or significant exposure. Among all participants, 25 (6.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.3-9.6) developed COVID-19 during the study period. In the group taking HCQ, 10 (3.9%) tested positive compared to 15 (15%) in the group not taking HCQ ( Conclusion: HCQ is safe at the recommended dose for pre-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19.
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-03-10
Publishing country	India
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2735275-4
ISSN	2278-7135 ; 2249-4863
ISSN (online)	2278-7135
ISSN	2249-4863
DOI	10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_1177_21
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Hydroxychloroquine pre-exposure prophylaxis for COVID-19 among healthcare workers

Harshith B Kadnur / Anivita Aggarwal / Manish Soneja / Komal Singh / Ankit Mittal / Neeraj Nischal / Praveen Tirlangi / Adil Rashid Khan / Devashish Desai / Ankesh Gupta / Arvind Kumar / Pankaj Jorwal / Ashutosh Biswas / Ravindra Mohan Pandey / Naveet Wig / Randeep Guleria

Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Vol 11, Iss 3, Pp 1140-

Initial experience from India

2022 Volume 1145

Abstract	Background: Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) had generated considerable interest for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prophylaxis. We conducted a prospective observational study at a tertiary care hospital in India, with dedicated COVID-19 care facilities. Objectives: Primary objective was incidence of adverse effects, secondary objective being efficacy in preventing COVID-19. Methods: Healthcare workers were recruited and grouped based on voluntary HCQ prophylaxis as per national guidelines. Side effects in HCQ group were graded in accordance with national cancer institute-common terminology criteria for adverse events (NCI-CTCAE) version 5.0. At 3–7-week follow-up, groups were compared for COVID-19 exposure, symptoms development and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RT-PCR results. Results: Among 358 participants recruited, 216 (60.3%) were males and mean age was 31.2 ± 6.6 years. Chemoprophylaxis was initiated by 258 (72%) participants. After loading dose, 7 (2.7%) reported grade 2 and 1 (0.4%) grade 3 adverse effects. Discontinuation of HCQ due to side effects was reported in 11 (4.3%) participants. Electrocardiogram was done by 50 (19.4%) participants on HCQ; no abnormalities were noted. A total of 106 (41%) among those taking and 63 (63%) among those not taking HCQ were tested for SARS-CoV-2 due to influenza-like illness or significant exposure. Among all participants, 25 (6.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.3–9.6) developed COVID-19 during the study period. In the group taking HCQ, 10 (3.9%) tested positive compared to 15 (15%) in the group not taking HCQ (P < 0.001). Odds ratio with HCQ intake was 0.34 (95% CI 0.13–0.83, P = 0.01) and the number needed to treat was 12. Conclusion: HCQ is safe at the recommended dose for pre-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19.
Keywords	covid-19 ; healthcare workers ; hydroxychloroquine ; pre-exposure prophylaxis ; sars-cov-2 ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	150
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Hydroxychloroquine Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis for COVID-19 Among Healthcare Workers: Initial Experience from India

Kadnur, Harshith B. / Aggarwal, Anivita Soneja Manish Singh Komal George Netto Nischal Neeraj Trilangi Praveen Khan Adil Rashid Desai Devashish Mittal Ankit Arunan Bharathi Patidar Diksha Gupta Ankesh Kumar Arvind Soni Kapil Dev Jorwal Pankaj Agarwal Richa Baidya Dalim K. / Mathur, Purva Bhatnagar Sushma Trikha Anjan Rajeshwari S. / Biswas, Ashutosh Pandey Ravindra Wig Naveet Guleria Randeep

Abstract: Background: Hydroxychloroquine(HCQ) prophylaxis has been proposed for coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19) This prospective observational study was conducted ... ...

Abstract	Background: Hydroxychloroquine(HCQ) prophylaxis has been proposed for coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19) This prospective observational study was conducted to
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	WHO
Document type	Article
Note	WHO #Covidence: #1746
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Hydroxychloroquine Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis for COVID-19 Among Healthcare Workers

Kadnur, Harshith B. / Aggarwal, Anivita / Soneja, Manish / Singh, Komal / George, Netto / Nischal, Neeraj / Trilangi, Praveen / Khan, Adil Rashid / Desai, Devashish / Mittal, Ankit / Arunan, Bharathi / Patidar, Diksha / Gupta, Ankesh / Kumar, Arvind / Soni, Kapil Dev / Jorwal, Pankaj / Agarwal, Richa / Baidya, Dalim K. / Mathur, Purva /

Bhatnagar, Sushma / Trikha, Anjan / Rajeshwari, S. / Biswas, Ashutosh / Pandey, Ravindra / Wig, Naveet / Guleria, Randeep

SSRN Electronic Journal ; ISSN 1556-5068

Initial Experience from India

2020

Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publisher	Elsevier BV
Publishing country	us
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.2139/ssrn.3622350
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Post COVID-19 sequelae: A prospective observational study from Northern India

Naik, Shivdas Rajaram / Soneja, Manish / Haldar, Soumendra / Mundadan, Netto George / Garg, Prerna / mittal, ankit / Desai, Devashish / Trilangi, Praveen Kumar / Chakraborty, Sayan / Begam, Nazneen Nahar / Bhattacharya, Bisakh / Maher, Ganesh / Kumar, Swasthi S / Jonnalagadda, Kirtana / Arunan, Bharathi / Gupta, Ankesh / Mahishi, Niranjan / Rajanna, Chaithra / Prasoon, Prateek /

Kumar, Nikhil A / Maharatna, Sayan / Bhattacharya, Aakashneel / Keri, Vishakh / Samed, Sameer Abdul / K, Adarsh A / Shareef, Imtiyaz / Ravela, Neeran / Swain, Satish / Sarda, Radhika / Kadnur, Harshith B / Dudhwal, Ashok / Agarwal, Ayush / Vedula, Kartik / Gupta, Ashish / Agarwal, Shubham / R, Anand / Lalikar, Pratima / Jagtap, Pallavi / Bainsla, Premjeet / Kodan, Parul / Sethi, Prayas / Ray, Animesh / Jorwal, Pankaj / Kumar, Arvind / Nischal, Neeraj / Sinha, Sanjeev / Biswas, Ashutosh / Wig, Naveet

medRxiv

Abstract: Background: Long COVID, or post-COVID-19 sequelae, is being seen in a growing number of patients reporting a constellation of symptoms, both pulmonary and extrapulmonary. Studies on COVID-19 recovered patients are scarce. Thus, there is a need to add ... ...

Abstract	Background: Long COVID, or post-COVID-19 sequelae, is being seen in a growing number of patients reporting a constellation of symptoms, both pulmonary and extrapulmonary. Studies on COVID-19 recovered patients are scarce. Thus, there is a need to add granularity to our existing knowledge about the course and long-term effects of the infection. Aim: To describe the clinical details and risk factors of post-COVID sequelae in the North Indian population. Method: This prospective observational study was conducted at a tertiary healthcare centre in Northern India between October 2020 to February 2021. Patients aged >18 years with a confirmed COVID-19 disease were recruited after at least two weeks of diagnosis and interviewed for any post-COVID-19 symptoms. Results: Of 1234 patients recruited, who were followed up for a median duration of 91 days (IQR: 45-181 days), 495 (40.11%) patients had symptoms. In 223 (18.1%) patients, the symptoms resolved within four weeks, 150 (12.1%) patients had symptoms till twelve weeks, and 122 (9.9%) patients had symptoms beyond twelve weeks of diagnosis of COVID-19. Most common long COVID-19 symptoms included myalgia (10.9%), fatigue (5.5%), shortness of breath (6.1%), cough (2.1%), disturbed sleep (1.4%), mood disturbances (0.48%) and anxiety (0.6%). The major determinants of developing post-COVID-19 symptoms in the patients were hypothyroidism and the severity of the disease. Conclusion: Most often, patients complain of myalgias, fatigue, dyspnoea, cough and disturbed sleep. Patients who are hypothyroid or have recovered from moderate to severe COVID-19 are at higher risk of developing post-COVID sequelae. Therefore, a multidisciplinary approach is required to diagnose and manage COVID-19 recovered patients.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-07-01
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2021.06.28.21259658
Database	COVID19

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Article: Rapid chromatographic immunoassay-based evaluation of COVID-19: A cross-sectional, diagnostic test accuracy study & its implications for COVID-19 management in India.

Gupta, Ankesh / Khurana, Surbhi / Das, Rojaleen / Srigyan, Deepankar / Singh, Amit / Mittal, Ankit / Singh, Parul / Soneja, Manish / Kumar, Arvind / Singh, Akhil Kant / Soni, Kapil Dev / Meena, Suneeta / Aggarwal, Richa / Sharad, Neha / Aggarwal, Anivita / Kadnur, Harshith / George, Netto / Singh, Komal / Desai, Devashish /

Trilangi, Praveen / Khan, Adil Rashid / Kiro, Vandana V / Naik, Shivdas / Arunan, Bharthi / Goel, Shivam / Patidar, Diksha / Lathwal, Amit / Dar, Lalit / Trikha, Anjan / Pandey, Ravindra Mohan / Malhotra, Rajesh / Guleria, Randeep / Mathur, Purva / Wig, Naveet

The Indian journal of medical research

2021 Volume 153, Issue 1 & 2, Page(s) 126–131

Abstract: Background & objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has so far affected over 41 million people globally. The limited supply of real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) kits and reagents has made meeting the rising ... ...

Abstract	Background & objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has so far affected over 41 million people globally. The limited supply of real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) kits and reagents has made meeting the rising demand for increased testing incompetent, worldwide. A highly sensitive and specific antigen-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is the need of the hour. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of a rapid chromatographic immunoassay-based test (index test) compared with a clinical reference standard (rRT-PCR). Methods: A cross-sectional, single-blinded study was conducted at a tertiary care teaching hospital in north India. Paired samples were taken for RDT and rRT-PCR (reference standard) from consecutive participants screened for COVID-19 to calculate the sensitivity and specificity of the RDT. Further subgroup analysis was done based on the duration of illness and cycle threshold values. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used to measure the level of agreement between the two tests. Results: Of the 330 participants, 77 were rRT-PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2. Sixty four of these patients also tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RDT. The overall sensitivity and specificity were 81.8 and 99.6 per cent, respectively. The sensitivity of RDT was higher (85.9%) in participants with a duration of illness ≤5 days. Interpretation & conclusions: With an excellent specificity and moderate sensitivity, this RDT may be used to rule in COVID-19 in patients with a duration of illness ≤5 days. Large-scale testing based on this RDT across the country would result in quick detection, isolation and treatment of COVID-19 patients.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/diagnosis ; COVID-19 Testing ; Chromatography ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Humans ; Immunoassay ; India ; Sensitivity and Specificity
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-09
Publishing country	India
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	390883-5
ISSN	0971-5916 ; 0019-5340
ISSN	0971-5916 ; 0019-5340
DOI	10.4103/ijmr.IJMR_3305_20
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: Rapid chromatographic immunoassay-based evaluation of COVID-19: A cross-sectional, diagnostic test accuracy study & its implications for COVID-19 management in India

Indian journal of medical research

Abstract: Background & objectives: : Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has so far affected over 41 million people globally. The limited supply of real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) kits and reagents has made meeting the rising ... ...

Abstract	Background & objectives: : Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has so far affected over 41 million people globally. The limited supply of real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) kits and reagents has made meeting the rising demand for increased testing incompetent, worldwide. A highly sensitive and specific antigen-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is the need of the hour. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of a rapid chromatographic immunoassay-based test (index test) compared with a clinical reference standard (rRT-PCR). Methods: : A cross-sectional, single-blinded study was conducted at a tertiary care teaching hospital in north India. Paired samples were taken for RDT and rRT-PCR (reference standard) from consecutive participants screened for COVID-19 to calculate the sensitivity and specificity of the RDT. Further subgroup analysis was done based on the duration of illness and cycle threshold values. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used to measure the level of agreement between the two tests. Results: : Of the 330 participants, 77 were rRT-PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2. Sixty four of these patients also tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RDT. The overall sensitivity and specificity were 81.8 and 99.6 per cent, respectively. The sensitivity of RDT was higher (85.9%) in participants with a duration of illness ≤5 days. Interpretation & conclusions: : With an excellent specificity and moderate sensitivity, this RDT may be used to rule in COVID-19 in patients with a duration of illness ≤5 days. Large-scale testing based on this RDT across the country would result in quick detection, isolation and treatment of COVID-19 patients.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	WHO
Document type	Article
Note	WHO #Covidence: #910272
Database	COVID19

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