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Article ; Online: Individual costs and societal benefits of interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Traulsen, Arne / Levin, Simon A / Saad-Roy, Chadi M

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

2023 Volume 120, Issue 24, Page(s) e2303546120

Abstract: Individual and societal reactions to an ongoing pandemic can lead to social dilemmas: In some cases, each individual is tempted to not follow an intervention, but for the whole society, it would be best if they did. Now that in most countries, the extent ...

Abstract	Individual and societal reactions to an ongoing pandemic can lead to social dilemmas: In some cases, each individual is tempted to not follow an intervention, but for the whole society, it would be best if they did. Now that in most countries, the extent of regulations to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission is very small, interventions are driven by individual decision-making. Assuming that individuals act in their best own interest, we propose a framework in which this situation can be quantified, depending on the protection the intervention provides to a user and to others, the risk of getting infected, and the costs of the intervention. We discuss when a tension between individual and societal benefits arises and which parameter comparisons are important to distinguish between different regimes of intervention use.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Cooperative Behavior ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Game Theory ; SARS-CoV-2
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-06-07
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	209104-5
ISSN	1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
ISSN (online)	1091-6490
ISSN	0027-8424
DOI	10.1073/pnas.2303546120
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Article ; Online: Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention.

Saad-Roy, Chadi M / Traulsen, Arne

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

2023 Volume 120, Issue 44, Page(s) e2311584120

Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of behavioral drivers in epidemic dynamics. With the relaxation of mandated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) formerly in place to decrease transmission, such as mask-wearing or social ... ...

Abstract	The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of behavioral drivers in epidemic dynamics. With the relaxation of mandated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) formerly in place to decrease transmission, such as mask-wearing or social distancing, adherence to an NPI is now the result of individual decision-making. To study these coupled dynamics, we embed a game-theoretic model for individual NPI adherence within an epidemiological model. When the disease is endemic, we find that our model has multiple (but none concurrently stable) equilibria: one each with zero, complete, or partial NPI adherence. Surprisingly, for the equilibrium with partial NPI adherence, the number of infections is independent of the transmission rate. Therefore, in that regime, a change in the rate of pathogen transmission, e.g., due to another (mandated) NPI or a new variant, has no effect on endemic infection levels. On the other hand, we show that vaccination successfully decreases endemic infection levels, and, unexpectedly, also reduces the number of susceptibles at equilibrium when there is partial adherence. From a game-theoretic perspective, we find that highly effective NPIs lead at most to partial adherence. As this effectiveness decreases, partially effective NPIs initially lead to increases in population-level adherence, especially if the risk is high enough. However, a completely ineffective NPI results in no adherence. Furthermore, we identify parameter regions where the individual incentives may not align with those of society as a whole. Overall, our findings illustrate complexities that can arise due to behavioral-epidemiological feedback and suggest appropriate measures to avoid more pessimistic population-level outcomes.
MeSH term(s)	Epidemiological Models ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Vaccination ; Physical Distancing
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-27
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	209104-5
ISSN	1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
ISSN (online)	1091-6490
ISSN	0027-8424
DOI	10.1073/pnas.2311584120
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Article ; Online: Markets as drivers of selection for highly virulent poultry pathogens.

Sheen, Justin K / Rasambainarivo, Fidisoa / Saad-Roy, Chadi M / Grenfell, Bryan T / Metcalf, C Jessica E

Nature communications

2024 Volume 15, Issue 1, Page(s) 605

Abstract: Theoretical models have successfully predicted the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence in industrialized farm contexts of broiler chicken populations. Whether there are ecological factors specific to more traditional rural farming that affect ... ...

Abstract	Theoretical models have successfully predicted the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence in industrialized farm contexts of broiler chicken populations. Whether there are ecological factors specific to more traditional rural farming that affect virulence is an open question. Within non-industrialized farming networks, live bird markets are known to be hotspots of transmission, but whether they could shift selection pressures on the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence has not been addressed. Here, we revisit predictions for the evolution of virulence for viral poultry pathogens, such as Newcastle's disease virus, Marek's disease virus, and influenza virus, H5N1, using a compartmental model that represents transmission in rural markets. We show that both the higher turnover rate and higher environmental persistence in markets relative to farms could select for higher optimal virulence strategies. In contrast to theoretical results modeling industrialized poultry farms, we find that cleaning could also select for decreased virulence in the live poultry market setting. Additionally, we predict that more virulent strategies selected in markets could circulate solely within poultry located in markets. Thus, we recommend the close monitoring of markets not only as hotspots of transmission, but as potential sources of more virulent strains of poultry pathogens.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Poultry ; Chickens ; Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype ; Farms ; Epidemiological Models ; Influenza in Birds
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-19
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2553671-0
ISSN	2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
ISSN (online)	2041-1723
ISSN	2041-1723
DOI	10.1038/s41467-024-44777-3
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Article ; Online: Modelling vaccination strategies for COVID-19.

Wagner, Caroline E / Saad-Roy, Chadi M / Grenfell, Bryan T

Nature reviews. Immunology

2022 Volume 22, Issue 3, Page(s) 139–141

MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/prevention & control ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vaccination
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-10
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2062776-2
ISSN	1474-1741 ; 1474-1733
ISSN (online)	1474-1741
ISSN	1474-1733
DOI	10.1038/s41577-022-00687-3
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Zs.A 5565: Show issues			Location: Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand) bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (2.OG) ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)
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Article ; Online: Individual costs and societal benefits of interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic

Traulsen, Arne / Levin, Simon A / Saad-Roy, Chadi M

medRxiv

Abstract: Individual and societal reactions to an ongoing pandemic can lead to social dilemmas: In some cases, each individual is tempted to not follow an intervention, but for the whole society it would be best if they did. Now that in most countries the extent ... ...

Abstract	Individual and societal reactions to an ongoing pandemic can lead to social dilemmas: In some cases, each individual is tempted to not follow an intervention, but for the whole society it would be best if they did. Now that in most countries the extent of regulations to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission is very small, interventions are driven by individual decision-making. Assuming that individuals act in their best own interest, we propose a framework in which this situation can be quantified, depending on the protection the intervention provides to a user and to others, the risk of getting infected, and the costs of the intervention. We discuss when a tension between individual and societal benefits arises and which parameter comparisons are important to distinguish between different regimes of intervention use.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-02-08
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2023.02.08.23285651
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Immuno-epidemiology and the predictability of viral evolution.

Saad-Roy, Chadi M / Metcalf, C Jessica E / Grenfell, Bryan T

Science (New York, N.Y.)

2022 Volume 376, Issue 6598, Page(s) 1161–1162

Abstract: Understanding viral evolution depends on a synthesis of evolutionary biology and immuno-epidemiology. ...

Abstract	Understanding viral evolution depends on a synthesis of evolutionary biology and immuno-epidemiology.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/immunology ; COVID-19/virology ; Evolution, Molecular ; Host-Pathogen Interactions/immunology ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics ; SARS-CoV-2/immunology
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-06-09
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	128410-1
ISSN	1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
ISSN (online)	1095-9203
ISSN	0036-8075
DOI	10.1126/science.abn9410
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Zs.A 27: Show issues			Location: Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand) bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG) ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)
Zs.MG 77: Show issues

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Article ; Online: Epidemiological impacts of post-infection mortality.

Saad-Roy, Chadi M / Levin, Simon A / Grenfell, Bryan T / Boots, Mike

Proceedings. Biological sciences

2023 Volume 290, Issue 2002, Page(s) 20230343

Abstract: Infectious diseases may cause some long-term damage to their host, leading to elevated mortality even after recovery. Mortality due to complications from so-called 'long COVID' is a stark illustration of this potential, but the impacts of such post- ... ...

Abstract	Infectious diseases may cause some long-term damage to their host, leading to elevated mortality even after recovery. Mortality due to complications from so-called 'long COVID' is a stark illustration of this potential, but the impacts of such post-infection mortality (PIM) on epidemic dynamics are not known. Using an epidemiological model that incorporates PIM, we examine the importance of this effect. We find that in contrast to mortality during infection, PIM can induce epidemic cycling. The effect is due to interference between elevated mortality and reinfection through the previously infected susceptible pool. In particular, robust immunity (via decreased susceptibility to reinfection) reduces the likelihood of cycling; on the other hand, disease-induced mortality can interact with weak PIM to generate periodicity. In the absence of PIM, we prove that the unique endemic equilibrium is stable and therefore our key result is that PIM is an overlooked phenomenon that is likely to be destabilizing. Overall, given potentially widespread effects, our findings highlight the importance of characterizing heterogeneity in susceptibility (via both PIM and robustness of host immunity) for accurate epidemiological predictions. In particular, for diseases without robust immunity, such as SARS-CoV-2, PIM may underlie complex epidemiological dynamics especially in the context of seasonal forcing.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome/mortality ; Epidemics
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-07-12
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
ZDB-ID	209242-6
ISSN	1471-2954 ; 0080-4649 ; 0962-8452 ; 0950-1193
ISSN (online)	1471-2954
ISSN	0080-4649 ; 0962-8452 ; 0950-1193
DOI	10.1098/rspb.2023.0343
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Article ; Online: A global system for the next generation of vaccines.

Arinaminpathy, Nimalan / Saad-Roy, Chadi M / Yang, Qiqi / Ahmad, Isa / Yadav, Prashant / Grenfell, Bryan

Science (New York, N.Y.)

2022 Volume 376, Issue 6592, Page(s) 462–464

Abstract: COVID-19 has shown that hurdles can be overcome. ...

Abstract	COVID-19 has shown that hurdles can be overcome.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/prevention & control ; Humans ; Vaccines
Chemical Substances	Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-28
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Letter ; Comment
ZDB-ID	128410-1
ISSN	1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
ISSN (online)	1095-9203
ISSN	0036-8075
DOI	10.1126/science.abm8894
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Article ; Online: Distributed medium viscosity yields quasi-exponential step-size probability distributions in heterogeneous media.

Bustos, Nicole A / Saad-Roy, Chadi M / Cherstvy, Andrey G / Wagner, Caroline E

Soft matter

2022 Volume 18, Issue 45, Page(s) 8572–8581

Abstract: The analysis of the statistics of random walks undertaken by passive particles in complex media has important implications in a number of areas including pathogen transport and drug delivery. In several systems in which heterogeneity is important, the ... ...

Abstract	The analysis of the statistics of random walks undertaken by passive particles in complex media has important implications in a number of areas including pathogen transport and drug delivery. In several systems in which heterogeneity is important, the distribution of particle step-sizes has been found to be exponential in nature, as opposed to the Gaussian distribution associated with Brownian motion. Here, we first develop a theoretical framework to study a simplified version of this problem: the motion of passive tracers in a range of sub-environments with different viscosity. We show that in the limit of a large number of equi-distributed sub-environments spanning a broad viscosity range, an exact analytical expression for the underlying particle step-size distribution can be derived, which approaches an exponential distribution when step sizes are small. We then validate this using a simple experimental system of glycerol-water mixtures, in which the volume fraction of glycerol is systematically varied. Overall, the assumption of exponentially distributed step sizes may substantially over-estimate the incidence of large steps in heterogeneous systems, with important implications in the analysis of various biophysical processes.
MeSH term(s)	Viscosity ; Glycerol ; Probability ; Particle Size ; Motion
Chemical Substances	Glycerol (PDC6A3C0OX)
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-23
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2191476-X
ISSN	1744-6848 ; 1744-683X
ISSN (online)	1744-6848
ISSN	1744-683X
DOI	10.1039/d2sm00952h
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Article ; Online: Host heterogeneity and epistasis explain punctuated evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

Nielsen, Bjarke Frost / Saad-Roy, Chadi M / Li, Yimei / Sneppen, Kim / Simonsen, Lone / Viboud, Cécile / Levin, Simon A / Grenfell, Bryan T

PLoS computational biology

2023 Volume 19, Issue 2, Page(s) e1010896

Abstract: Identifying drivers of viral diversity is key to understanding the evolutionary as well as epidemiological dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using rich viral genomic data sets, we show that periods of steadily rising diversity have been punctuated by ... ...

Abstract	Identifying drivers of viral diversity is key to understanding the evolutionary as well as epidemiological dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using rich viral genomic data sets, we show that periods of steadily rising diversity have been punctuated by sudden, enormous increases followed by similarly abrupt collapses of diversity. We introduce a mechanistic model of saltational evolution with epistasis and demonstrate that these features parsimoniously account for the observed temporal dynamics of inter-genomic diversity. Our results provide support for recent proposals that saltational evolution may be a signature feature of SARS-CoV-2, allowing the pathogen to more readily evolve highly transmissible variants. These findings lend theoretical support to a heightened awareness of biological contexts where increased diversification may occur. They also underline the power of pathogen genomics and other surveillance streams in clarifying the phylodynamics of emerging and endemic infections. In public health terms, our results further underline the importance of equitable distribution of up-to-date vaccines.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Epistasis, Genetic/genetics ; Genomics
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-02-15
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
ZDB-ID	2193340-6
ISSN	1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
ISSN (online)	1553-7358
ISSN	1553-734X
DOI	10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010896
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