Article ; Online: Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.
2023 Volume 33, Issue 1, Page(s) 13124
Abstract: The accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of ...
Abstract | The accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of RID resurgence after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs and assessed the burdens on the health system. We proposed the Threshold-based Control Method (TCM) to identify data-driven solutions to maintain the resilience of the health system by re-introducing NPIs when the number of severe infections reaches a threshold. There will be outbreaks of all RIDs with staggered peak times after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs. Such a large-scale resurgence of RID patients will impose a significant risk of overwhelming the health system. With a strict NPI strategy, a TCM-initiated threshold of 600 severe infections can ensure a sufficient supply of hospital beds for all hospitalized severely infected patients. The proposed TCM identifies effective dynamic NPIs, which facilitate future NPI relaxation policymaking. |
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MeSH term(s) | Humans ; Hong Kong/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Respiratory Tract Infections ; Disease Outbreaks |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2023-01-20 |
Publishing country | United States |
Document type | Journal Article |
ZDB-ID | 1472677-4 |
ISSN | 1089-7682 ; 1054-1500 |
ISSN (online) | 1089-7682 |
ISSN | 1054-1500 |
DOI | 10.1063/5.0123870 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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