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Article ; Online: Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts.

Linton, Natalie M / Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R / Nishiura, Hiroshi

2022 Volume 41, Page(s) 100655

Abstract: Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval-the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of ... ...

Abstract	Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval-the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of the pathogen to another individual-is shorter than the incubation period-the time between infection and symptom onset. We collected a dataset of 257 SARS-CoV-2 transmission pairs in Japan during 2020 and jointly estimated the mean incubation period of infectors (4.8 days, 95 % CrI: 4.4-5.1 days), mean generation interval to when they infect others (4.3 days, 95 % credible interval [CrI]: 4.0-4.7 days), and the correlation (Kendall's tau: 0.5, 95 % CrI: 0.4-0.6) between these two epidemiological parameters. Our finding of a positive correlation and mean generation interval shorter than the mean infector incubation period indicates ample infectiousness before symptom onset and suggests that reliance on isolation of symptomatic COVID-19 cases as a focal point of control efforts is insufficient to address the challenges posed by SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Epidemics ; Time Factors ; Japan/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-14
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100655
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Article ; Online: Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People's Republic of China, August 2018-September 2019.

Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R / Jung, Sung-Mok / Lee, Hyojung / Linton, Natalie M / Yang, Yichi / Yuan, Baoyin / Nishiura, Hiroshi

Epidemiology and infection

2024 Volume 152, Page(s) e27

Abstract: Introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to China in mid-2018 and the subsequent transboundary spread across Asia devastated regional swine production, affecting live pig and pork product-related markets worldwide. To explore the spatiotemporal spread ... ...

Abstract	Introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to China in mid-2018 and the subsequent transboundary spread across Asia devastated regional swine production, affecting live pig and pork product-related markets worldwide. To explore the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in China, we reconstructed possible ASF transmission networks using nearest neighbour, exponential function, equal probability, and spatiotemporal case-distribution algorithms. From these networks, we estimated the reproduction numbers, serial intervals, and transmission distances of the outbreak. The mean serial interval between paired units was around 29 days for all algorithms, while the mean transmission distance ranged 332 -456 km. The reproduction numbers for each algorithm peaked during the first two weeks and steadily declined through the end of 2018 before hovering around the epidemic threshold value of 1 with sporadic increases during 2019. These results suggest that 1) swine husbandry practices and production systems that lend themselves to long-range transmission drove ASF spread; 2) outbreaks went undetected by the surveillance system. Efforts by China and other affected countries to control ASF within their jurisdictions may be aided by the reconstructed spatiotemporal model. Continued support for strict implementation of biosecurity standards and improvements to ASF surveillance is essential for halting transmission in China and spread across Asia.
MeSH term(s)	Swine ; Humans ; Animals ; African Swine Fever/epidemiology ; African Swine Fever/prevention & control ; African Swine Fever Virus ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Epidemics ; China/epidemiology ; Sus scrofa ; Swine Diseases/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-29
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	632982-2
ISSN	1469-4409 ; 0950-2688
ISSN (online)	1469-4409
ISSN	0950-2688
DOI	10.1017/S0950268824000086
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Article ; Online: Not all fun and games: Potential incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.

Linton, Natalie M / Jung, Sung-Mok / Nishiura, Hiroshi

Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE

2021 Volume 18, Issue 6, Page(s) 9685–9696

Abstract: The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games represent the most diverse international mass gathering event held since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Postponed to summer 2021, the rescheduled Games were set to be held amidst ...

Abstract	The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games represent the most diverse international mass gathering event held since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Postponed to summer 2021, the rescheduled Games were set to be held amidst what would become the highest-ever levels of COVID-19 transmission in the host city of Tokyo. At the same time, the Delta variant of concern was gaining traction as the dominant viral strain and Japan had yet to exceed fifteen percent of its population fully vaccinated against COVID-19. To quantify the potential number of secondary cases that might arise during the Olympic Games, we performed a scenario analysis using a multitype branching process model. We considered the different contributions to transmission of Games accredited individuals, the general Tokyo population, and domestic spectators. In doing so, we demonstrate how transmission might evolve in these different groups over time, cautioning against any loosening of infection prevention protocols and supporting the decision to ban all spectators. If prevention measures were well observed, we estimated that the number of new cases among Games accredited individuals would approach zero by the end of the Games. However, if transmission was not controlled our model indicated hundreds of Games accredited individuals would become infected and daily incidence in Tokyo would reach upwards of 4,000 cases. Had domestic spectators been allowed (at 50% venue capacity), we estimated that over 250 spectators might have arrived infected to Tokyo venues, potentially generating more than 300 additional secondary infections while in Tokyo/at the Games. We also found the number of cases with infection directly attributable to hypothetical exposure during the Games was highly sensitive to the local epidemic dynamics. Therefore, reducing and maintaining transmission levels below epidemic levels using public health measures would be necessary to prevent cross-group transmission.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; Humans ; Incidence ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Tokyo/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-12-09
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2265126-3
ISSN	1551-0018 ; 1551-0018
ISSN (online)	1551-0018
ISSN	1551-0018
DOI	10.3934/mbe.2021474
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Article ; Online: Localized end-of-outbreak determination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): examples from clusters in Japan.

Linton, Natalie M / Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R / Nishiura, Hiroshi

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases

2021 Volume 105, Page(s) 286–292

Abstract: Objectives: End-of-outbreak declarations are an important component of outbreak response because they indicate that public health and social interventions may be relaxed or lapsed. Our study aimed to assess end-of-outbreak probabilities for clusters of ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: End-of-outbreak declarations are an important component of outbreak response because they indicate that public health and social interventions may be relaxed or lapsed. Our study aimed to assess end-of-outbreak probabilities for clusters of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases detected during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan. Methods: A statistical model for end-of-outbreak determination, which accounted for reporting delays for new cases, was computed. Four clusters, representing different social contexts and time points during the first wave of the epidemic, were selected and their end-of-outbreak probabilities were evaluated. Results: The speed of end-of-outbreak determination was most closely tied to outbreak size. Notably, accounting underascertainment of cases led to later end-of-outbreak determinations. In addition, end-of-outbreak determination was closely related to estimates of case dispersionk and the effective reproduction number R Conclusions: When public health measures are effective, lowerR
MeSH term(s)	Basic Reproduction Number ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Disease Hotspot ; Humans ; Japan/epidemiology ; Models, Statistical ; Probability ; Public Health ; SARS-CoV-2
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-03-01
Publishing country	Canada
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1331197-9
ISSN	1878-3511 ; 1201-9712
ISSN (online)	1878-3511
ISSN	1201-9712
DOI	10.1016/j.ijid.2021.02.106
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Article: Initial Cluster of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections in Wuhan, China Is Consistent with Substantial Human-to-Human Transmission.

Nishiura, Hiroshi / Linton, Natalie M / Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R

Journal of clinical medicine

2020 Volume 9, Issue 2

Abstract: Reanalysis of the epidemic curve from the initial cluster of cases with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in December 2019 indicates substantial human-to-human transmission. It is possible that the common exposure history at a seafood market in Wuhan ... ...

Abstract	Reanalysis of the epidemic curve from the initial cluster of cases with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in December 2019 indicates substantial human-to-human transmission. It is possible that the common exposure history at a seafood market in Wuhan originated from the human-to-human transmission events within the market, and the early, strong emphasis that market exposure indicated animal-to-human transmission was potentially the result of observer bias. To support the hypothesis of zoonotic origin of 2019-nCoV stemming from the Huanan seafood market, the index case should have had exposure history related to the market and the virus should have been identified from animals sold at the market. As these requirements remain unmet, zoonotic spillover at the market must not be overemphasized.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-02-11
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Editorial
ZDB-ID	2662592-1
ISSN	2077-0383
ISSN	2077-0383
DOI	10.3390/jcm9020488
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Article ; Online: Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections.

Nishiura, Hiroshi / Linton, Natalie M / Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases

2020 Volume 93, Page(s) 284–286

Abstract: Objective: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs.: Methods: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published ... ...

Abstract	Objective: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. Methods: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n = 28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n = 18). In addition, we adjust for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase. Results: Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9). Conclusions: The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.
MeSH term(s)	Betacoronavirus/physiology ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Time Factors
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-03-04
Publishing country	Canada
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1331197-9
ISSN	1878-3511 ; 1201-9712
ISSN (online)	1878-3511
ISSN	1201-9712
DOI	10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060
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Article ; Online: Presence and activity of endo-β-1,4-mannase, an important digestive carbohydrase within the digestive fluid of terrestrial crustaceans.

Linton, Stuart M

Journal of comparative physiology. B, Biochemical, systemic, and environmental physiology

2021 Volume 191, Issue 2, Page(s) 243–253

Abstract: Within the midgut gland of the Christmas Island red crab, Gecarcoidea natalis, a single transcript ... of this hemicellulase, compared with other carbohydrases, has yet to be established. The digestive fluid of G. natalis ...

Abstract	Within the midgut gland of the Christmas Island red crab, Gecarcoidea natalis, a single transcript for a GH5_10 endo-β-1,4-mannase had the highest expression out of all of the carbohydrase enzymes (Gan et al. in Mar Biotechnol 20:654-665, 2018). The activity, and potential digestive importance of this hemicellulase, compared with other carbohydrases, has yet to be established. The digestive fluid of G. natalis contained substantial endo-β-1,4-mannase activities (630 ± 55 (6) nmol reducing sugars. min
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Australia ; Cellulase ; Glycoside Hydrolases
Chemical Substances	Glycoside Hydrolases (EC 3.2.1.-) ; carbohydrase (EC 3.2.1.-) ; Cellulase (EC 3.2.1.4)
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-05
Publishing country	Germany
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	231245-1
ISSN	1432-136X ; 0174-1578
ISSN (online)	1432-136X
ISSN	0174-1578
DOI	10.1007/s00360-021-01342-4
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Article ; Online: Legal Relief for Children in Immigrant Families: A Mixed-Methods Study.

Wichelt, Natalie / Torres, Kenny / de la Vega, Gabriela / Linton, Julie M / Montez, Kimberly

International journal of environmental research and public health

2022 Volume 19, Issue 7

Abstract: Objective: Immigration status is a known social driver of health. Little research exists on addressing concerns about immigration status in primary care. The objective of this study is to understand the experiences of immigrant families that received a ... ...

Abstract	Objective: Immigration status is a known social driver of health. Little research exists on addressing concerns about immigration status in primary care. The objective of this study is to understand the experiences of immigrant families that received a clinical-community intervention to address immigration-related concerns. Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study: an embedded experimental design study. We implemented an immigration-focused legal needs screening tool and referral intervention at one academic primary care clinic in January 2018. Caregivers who screened positive for immigration-related concerns and were referred to a local immigration law firm were invited to participate in a semi-structured interview. Interviews were recorded, de-identified, transcribed, and systematically coded using an inductive content analysis approach. A modified constant comparative method was used to iteratively review codes, identify emerging themes, and resolve differences through consensus. Results: Nineteen caregivers reported immigration-related legal concerns, seven of whom were interviewed. Most (84.2%) were mothers, identified as Hispanic (94.7%), were from Mexico (52.6%), and reported persecution and fear of returning to their country of origin (57.9%). In interviews, we identified three major themes: (1) families were motivated to immigrate due to mental health trauma and persecution; (2) families sought legal services for several immigration-related concerns; and (3) families experienced challenges in navigating the legal system, with which clinics may assist. Conclusion: This study demonstrates the need for immigration-related services in primary care settings and the feasibility and potential benefits of implementing a legal screening and referral intervention.
MeSH term(s)	Child ; Delivery of Health Care ; Emigrants and Immigrants ; Emigration and Immigration ; Hispanic or Latino ; Humans ; Mental Health
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-05
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2175195-X
ISSN	1660-4601 ; 1661-7827
ISSN (online)	1660-4601
ISSN	1661-7827
DOI	10.3390/ijerph19074373
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Article ; Online: Initial Cluster of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections in Wuhan, China Is Consistent with Substantial Human-to-Human Transmission

Hiroshi Nishiura / Natalie M. Linton / Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov

Journal of Clinical Medicine, Vol 9, Iss 2, p

2020 Volume 488

Abstract	Reanalysis of the epidemic curve from the initial cluster of cases with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in December 2019 indicates substantial human-to-human transmission. It is possible that the common exposure history at a seafood market in Wuhan originated from the human-to-human transmission events within the market, and the early, strong emphasis that market exposure indicated animal-to-human transmission was potentially the result of observer bias. To support the hypothesis of zoonotic origin of 2019-nCoV stemming from the Huanan seafood market, the index case should have had exposure history related to the market and the virus should have been identified from animals sold at the market. As these requirements remain unmet, zoonotic spillover at the market must not be overemphasized.
Keywords	epidemiology ; transmissibility ; zoonosis ; cluster ; exposure ; statistical inference ; Medicine ; R
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-02-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections

Nishiura, Hiroshi / Linton, Natalie M / Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R.

medRxiv

Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-02-17
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2020.02.03.20019497
Database	COVID19

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