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Article: Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? Evidence from cell-phone data.

Grover, Elise N / Buchwald, Andrea G / Ghosh, Debashis / Carlton, Elizabeth J

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

2024

Abstract: Background: There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS- ...

Abstract	Background: There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. Objectives: We aim to evaluate the extent to which weather impacts COVID-19 via time spent away-from-home in indoor spaces, as compared to a direct effect of weather on COVID-19 hospitalization, independent of mobility. Methods: We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4 Results: We found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Sensitivity analyses evaluating time at home as a mediator were consistent with these conclusions. Discussion: Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and other seasonal respiratory pathogens.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-28
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Preprint
DOI	10.1101/2024.03.26.24304854
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? Evidence from cell-phone data

Grover, Elise N. / Buchwald, Andrea G. / Ghosh, Debashis / Carlton, Elizabeth J.

medRxiv

Abstract	Background: There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. Objectives: We aim to evaluate the extent to which weather impacts COVID-19 via time spent away-from-home in indoor spaces, as compared to a direct effect of weather on COVID-19 hospitalization, independent of mobility. Methods: We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021. Results: We found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Sensitivity analyses evaluating time at home as a mediator were consistent with these conclusions. Discussion: Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and other seasonal respiratory pathogens.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-28
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2024.03.26.24304854
Database	COVID19

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Thesis ; Online: Asymptomatic Plasmodium Falciparum Infections in Malawi and Their Association with Age

Buchwald, Andrea G.

2017

Abstract: In Malawi, scale up of malaria control measures has not resulted in expected decreases in Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Interventions are targeted to individuals with the highest disease risk: pregnant women and children under age five. However, most ...

Abstract	In Malawi, scale up of malaria control measures has not resulted in expected decreases in Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Interventions are targeted to individuals with the highest disease risk: pregnant women and children under age five. However, most infection is concentrated in school-aged children (SAC, aged five to 15) who are unlikely to access interventions. We hypothesized that the high burden of infection in SAC was related to a high frequency of asymptomatic infections, and prolonged carriage of untreated asymptomatic infections. We aimed to: describe the association between age and asymptomatic P. falciparum infection; assess the impact of asymptomatic infections on subsequent clinical disease; and predict the impact on prevalence of targeting interventions to SAC. A longitudinal cohort study with 120 individuals aged one through 50 years was conducted in a high-prevalence rural area. Using data from cross-sectional studies and the cohort study, a mathematical model was constructed. Incident infections and length of infection persistence did not significantly differ between SAC and children under five. Asymptomatic infections in all ages were unlikely to develop into clinical disease, and were associated with decreased risk of subsequent clinical malaria. Newly acquired infections were associated with increased risk of clinical disease. Modeling predicted that targeting interventions to SAC leads to greater decreases in P. falciparum prevalence in Malawi compared to current intervention strategies. Ensuring both children under five and SAC had equal access to interventions leads to the greatest decreases in prevalence. Biological and behavioral factors may interact to cause the disparity in P. falciparum prevalence observed in cross-sectional data from Malawi. Our data suggests that, for all measures, when participants had equal access to malaria control measures, SAC were similar to children under five. Asymptomatic infections were associated with decreased risk of disease, but did not appear to be protective against clinical disease when new parasites were introduced. Thus, treatment of asymptomatic infections may be a viable strategy to decrease prevalence in Malawi. However, policy needs to address the disparity in access to malaria control interventions, which appears to be driving high P. falciparum prevalence both in SAC and the community.
Keywords	Biostatistics\|Sub Saharan Africa Studies\|Parasitology\|Epidemiology
Subject code	610
Language	ENG
Publishing date	2017-01-01 00:00:01.0
Publisher	University of Maryland, Baltimore
Publishing country	us
Document type	Thesis ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The Association Between Rainfall, Temperature, and Reported Drinking Water Source: A Multi-Country Analysis.

Buchwald, Andrea G / Thomas, Evan / Karnauskas, Kristopher B / Grover, Elise / Kotloff, Karen / Carlton, Elizabeth J

GeoHealth

2022 Volume 6, Issue 11, Page(s) e2022GH000605

Abstract: Climate change may alter access to safe drinking water, with important implications for health. We assessed the relationship between temperature and rainfall and utilization of basic drinking water (BDW) in The Gambia, Mozambique, Pakistan, and Kenya. ... ...

Abstract	Climate change may alter access to safe drinking water, with important implications for health. We assessed the relationship between temperature and rainfall and utilization of basic drinking water (BDW) in The Gambia, Mozambique, Pakistan, and Kenya. The outcomes of interest were (a) whether the reported drinking water source used in the past 2 weeks met the World Health Organization definition of BDW and (b) use of a BDW source that was always available. Temperature and precipitation data were compiled from weather stations and satellite data and summarized to account for long- and short-term weather patterns and lags. We utilized random forests and logistic regression to identify key weather variables that predicted outcomes by site and the association between important weather variables and BDW use. Higher temperatures were associated with decreased BDW use at three of four sites and decreased use of BDW that is always available at all four sites. Increasing rainfall, both in the long- and short-term, was associated with increased BDW use in three sites. We found evidence for interactions between household wealth and weather variables at two sites, suggesting lower wealth populations may be more sensitive to weather-driven changes in water access. Changes in temperature and precipitation can alter safe water use in low-resource settings-investigating drivers for these relationships can inform efforts to build climate resilience.
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-01
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2471-1403
ISSN (online)	2471-1403
DOI	10.1029/2022GH000605
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Modeling the systemic risks of COVID-19 on the wildland firefighting workforce.

Belval, Erin J / Bayham, Jude / Thompson, Matthew P / Dilliott, Jacob / Buchwald, Andrea G

Scientific reports

2022 Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 8320

Abstract: Wildfire management in the US relies on a complex nationwide network of shared resources that are allocated based on regional need. While this network bolsters firefighting capacity, it may also provide pathways for transmission of infectious diseases ... ...

Abstract	Wildfire management in the US relies on a complex nationwide network of shared resources that are allocated based on regional need. While this network bolsters firefighting capacity, it may also provide pathways for transmission of infectious diseases between fire sites. In this manuscript, we review a first attempt at building an epidemiological model adapted to the interconnected fire system, with the aims of supporting prevention and mitigation efforts along with understanding potential impacts to workforce capacity. Specifically, we developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 built on historical wildland fire assignments using detailed dispatch data from 2016-2018, which form a network of firefighters dispersed spatially and temporally across the US. We used this model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission under several intervention scenarios including vaccination and social distancing. We found vaccination and social distancing are effective at reducing transmission at fire incidents. Under a scenario assuming High Compliance with recommended mitigations (including vaccination), infection rates, number of outbreaks, and worker days missed are effectively negligible, suggesting the recommended interventions could successfully mitigate the risk of cascading infections between fires. Under a contrasting Low Compliance scenario, it is possible for cascading outbreaks to emerge leading to relatively high numbers of worker days missed. As the model was built in 2021 before the emergence of the Delta and Omicron variants, the modeled viral parameters and isolation/quarantine policies may have less relevance to 2022, but nevertheless underscore the importance of following basic prevention and mitigation guidance. This work could set the foundation for future modeling efforts focused on mitigating spread of infectious disease at wildland fire incidents to manage both the health of fire personnel and system capacity.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Fires ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Wildfires ; Workforce
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-05-18
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Review ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-022-12253-x
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: Dynamics of the Gut Microbiome in

Ndungo, Esther / Holm, Johanna B / Gama, Syze / Buchwald, Andrea G / Tennant, Sharon M / Laufer, Miriam K / Pasetti, Marcela F / Rasko, David A

mSystems

2022 Volume 7, Issue 5, Page(s) e0044222

Abstract: ... ...

Abstract	Shigella
MeSH term(s)	Infant ; Humans ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Gastrointestinal Microbiome/genetics ; Dysentery, Bacillary/epidemiology ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S/genetics ; Quality of Life ; Feces/microbiology ; Shigella/genetics ; Diarrhea/microbiology
Chemical Substances	RNA, Ribosomal, 16S
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-09-19
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
ISSN	2379-5077
ISSN	2379-5077
DOI	10.1128/msystems.00442-22
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Article ; Online: Infectious Disease Transmission Models to Predict, Evaluate, and Improve Understanding of COVID-19 Trajectory and Interventions.

Buchwald, Andrea G / Adams, Jimi / Bortz, David M / Carlton, Elizabeth J

Annals of the American Thoracic Society

2020 Volume 17, Issue 10, Page(s) 1204–1206

MeSH term(s)	Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification ; COVID-19 ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration ; Communicable Disease Control/standards ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Pandemics/statistics & numerical data ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; Quality Improvement ; SARS-CoV-2
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-06-30
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2717461-X
ISSN	2325-6621 ; 1943-5665 ; 2325-6621
ISSN (online)	2325-6621 ; 1943-5665
ISSN	2325-6621
DOI	10.1513/AnnalsATS.202005-501PS
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Article ; Online: Modeling the systemic risks of COVID-19 on the wildland firefighting workforce

Erin J. Belval / Jude Bayham / Matthew P. Thompson / Jacob Dilliott / Andrea G. Buchwald

Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2022 Volume 13

Abstract: Abstract Wildfire management in the US relies on a complex nationwide network of shared resources that are allocated based on regional need. While this network bolsters firefighting capacity, it may also provide pathways for transmission of infectious ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Wildfire management in the US relies on a complex nationwide network of shared resources that are allocated based on regional need. While this network bolsters firefighting capacity, it may also provide pathways for transmission of infectious diseases between fire sites. In this manuscript, we review a first attempt at building an epidemiological model adapted to the interconnected fire system, with the aims of supporting prevention and mitigation efforts along with understanding potential impacts to workforce capacity. Specifically, we developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 built on historical wildland fire assignments using detailed dispatch data from 2016–2018, which form a network of firefighters dispersed spatially and temporally across the US. We used this model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission under several intervention scenarios including vaccination and social distancing. We found vaccination and social distancing are effective at reducing transmission at fire incidents. Under a scenario assuming High Compliance with recommended mitigations (including vaccination), infection rates, number of outbreaks, and worker days missed are effectively negligible, suggesting the recommended interventions could successfully mitigate the risk of cascading infections between fires. Under a contrasting Low Compliance scenario, it is possible for cascading outbreaks to emerge leading to relatively high numbers of worker days missed. As the model was built in 2021 before the emergence of the Delta and Omicron variants, the modeled viral parameters and isolation/quarantine policies may have less relevance to 2022, but nevertheless underscore the importance of following basic prevention and mitigation guidance. This work could set the foundation for future modeling efforts focused on mitigating spread of infectious disease at wildland fire incidents to manage both the health of fire personnel and system capacity.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	690
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nature Portfolio
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Novel use of online optimization in a mathematical model of COVID-19 to guide the relaxation of pandemic mitigation measures.

Bianchin, Gianluca / Dall'Anese, Emiliano / Poveda, Jorge I / Jacobson, David / Carlton, Elizabeth J / Buchwald, Andrea G

Scientific reports

2022 Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 4731

Abstract: Since early 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)-implemented at varying levels of severity and based on widely-divergent perspectives of risk tolerance-have been the primary means to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. This paper aims to identify ... ...

Abstract	Since early 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)-implemented at varying levels of severity and based on widely-divergent perspectives of risk tolerance-have been the primary means to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. This paper aims to identify how risk tolerance and vaccination rates impact the rate at which a population can return to pre-pandemic contact behavior. To this end, we developed a novel mathematical model and we used techniques from feedback control to inform data-driven decision-making. We use this model to identify optimal levels of NPIs across geographical regions in order to guarantee that hospitalizations will not exceed given risk tolerance thresholds. Results are shown for the state of Colorado, United States, and they suggest that: coordination in decision-making across regions is essential to maintain the daily number of hospitalizations below the desired limits; increasing risk tolerance can decrease the number of days required to discontinue NPIs, at the cost of an increased number of deaths; and if vaccination uptake is less than 70%, at most levels of risk tolerance, return to pre-pandemic contact behaviors before the early months of 2022 may newly jeopardize the healthcare system. The sooner we can acquire population-level vaccination of greater than 70%, the sooner we can safely return to pre-pandemic behaviors.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Humans ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-03-18
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-022-08389-5
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Article ; Online: Sinonasal DLBCL: molecular profiling identifies subtypes with distinctive prognosis and targetable genetic features.

Eriksen, Patrick R G / de Groot, Fleur / Clasen-Linde, Erik / de Nully Brown, Peter / de Groen, Ruben / Melchior, Linea C / Maier, Andrea D / Minderman, Marthe / Vermaat, Joost S P / von Buchwald, Christian / Pals, Steven T / Heegaard, Steffen

Blood advances

2024 Volume 8, Issue 8, Page(s) 1946–1957

Abstract: Abstract: Primary sinonasal diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (PSDLBCL) is a rare lymphoma with a variable prognosis and a unique relapse/dissemination pattern involving the central nervous system and skin. The underlying molecular mechanisms leading to ... ...

Abstract	Abstract: Primary sinonasal diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (PSDLBCL) is a rare lymphoma with a variable prognosis and a unique relapse/dissemination pattern involving the central nervous system and skin. The underlying molecular mechanisms leading to this heterogeneity and progression pattern remain uncharted, hampering patient-tailored treatment. To investigate associated mechanisms, we analyzed clinical data and used immunohistochemistry, gene-expression profiling, cytogenetics, and next-generation sequencing in a cohort of 117 patients with PSDLBCL. The distribution in cell-of-origin (COO) was 68 (58%) activated B-cell (ABC), 44 (38%) germinal center B-cell (GCB), and 5 (4%) unclassifiable. COO was significantly associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and lymphoma-specific mortality (LSM) in both the overall cohort (5-year PFS: ABC, 43% vs GCB, 73%; LSM: ABC, 45% vs GCB, 14%) and in the subgroup of patients receiving immunochemotherapy (5-year PFS: ABC, 55% vs GCB, 85%; LSM: ABC, 28% vs GCB, 0%). ABC lymphomas were mainly MCD class, showing a high prevalence of MYD88 (74%) and CD79B (35%) mutations compared with GCB lymphomas (MYD88 23%; CD79B 10%) (P < .01). The ABC subtype frequently displayed cMYC/BCL2 coexpression (76% vs 18% GCB; P < .001) and HLA-II loss (48% vs 10% GCB; P < .001). PD-L1 expression and copy-number alterations were rare. All lymphomas were Epstein-Barr virus-negative. Our data suggest molecular profiling as a potent tool for detecting prognostic subgroups in PSDLBCL, exposing links to known relapse/dissemination sites. The ABC subgroup's MCD genetic features, shared with lymphomas at other nonprofessional lymphoid sites, make them potential candidates for targeted B-cell and toll-like receptor signaling therapy.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Epstein-Barr Virus Infections ; Myeloid Differentiation Factor 88/metabolism ; Herpesvirus 4, Human/metabolism ; Neoplasm Recurrence, Local ; Prognosis ; Lymphoma, Large B-Cell, Diffuse/diagnosis ; Lymphoma, Large B-Cell, Diffuse/genetics ; Lymphoma, Large B-Cell, Diffuse/drug therapy ; Recurrence
Chemical Substances	Myeloid Differentiation Factor 88
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-02-07
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2915908-8
ISSN	2473-9537 ; 2473-9529
ISSN (online)	2473-9537
ISSN	2473-9529
DOI	10.1182/bloodadvances.2023011517
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