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Article ; Online: Evidence of the importance of contact tracing in fighting COVID-19.

Kwon, Okyu

2022 Volume 44, Page(s) e2022006

Abstract: Objectives: We analyzed data to determine whether there are distinguishing characteristics depending on the success or failure of control for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by country in the trend of the daily number of confirmed cases and the ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: We analyzed data to determine whether there are distinguishing characteristics depending on the success or failure of control for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by country in the trend of the daily number of confirmed cases and the number of tests. Methods: We obtained the number of confirmed cases and tests per day for almost every country in the world from Our World in Data. The Pearson correlation between the two time series was calculated according to the time delay to analyze the relationship between the number of tests and the number of cases with a lag. Results: For each country, we obtained the time lag that makes the maximum correlation between the number of confirmed cases and the number of tests for COVID-19. It can be seen that countries whose time lag making maximum correlation lies in a special section between about 15 days and 20 days are generally been successful in controlling COVID-19. That section looks like a trench on the battlefield. Conclusions: We have seen the possibility that the success in mitigating COVID-19 can be expressed as a simple indicator of the time lag of the correlation between confirmed cases and tests. This time lag indicator is presumably reflected by efforts to actively trace the infected persons.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; Contact Tracing ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-03
Publishing country	Korea (South)
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2590698-7
ISSN	2092-7193 ; 2092-7193
ISSN (online)	2092-7193
ISSN	2092-7193
DOI	10.4178/epih.e2022006
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Clustering and link prediction for mesoscopic COVID-19 transmission networks in Republic of Korea.

Kwon, Okyu / Jo, Hang-Hyun

Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)

2023 Volume 33, Issue 1, Page(s) 13107

Abstract: We analyze the dataset of confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID-19) in the Republic of Korea, which contains transmission information on who infected whom as well as temporal information regarding when the infection ... ...

Abstract	We analyze the dataset of confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID-19) in the Republic of Korea, which contains transmission information on who infected whom as well as temporal information regarding when the infection possibly occurred. We derive time series of mesoscopic transmission networks using the location and age of each individual in the dataset to see how the structure of these networks changes over time in terms of clustering and link prediction. We find that the networks are clustered to a large extent, while those without weak links could be seen as having a tree structure. It is also found that triad-based link predictability using the network structure could be improved when combined with additional information on mobility and age-stratified contact patterns. Abundant triangles in the networks can help us better understand mixing patterns of people with different locations and age groups, hence the spreading dynamics of infectious disease.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Cluster Analysis
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-20
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1472677-4
ISSN	1089-7682 ; 1054-1500
ISSN (online)	1089-7682
ISSN	1054-1500
DOI	10.1063/5.0130386
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Book ; Online: Very simple statistical evidence that AlphaGo has exceeded human limits in playing GO game

Kwon, Okyu

2020

Abstract: Deep learning technology is making great progress in solving the challenging problems of artificial intelligence, hence machine learning based on artificial neural networks is in the spotlight again. In some areas, artificial intelligence based on deep ... ...

Abstract	Deep learning technology is making great progress in solving the challenging problems of artificial intelligence, hence machine learning based on artificial neural networks is in the spotlight again. In some areas, artificial intelligence based on deep learning is beyond human capabilities. It seemed extremely difficult for a machine to beat a human in a Go game, but AlphaGo has shown to beat a professional player in the game. By looking at the statistical distribution of the distance in which the Go stones are laid in succession, we find a clear trace that Alphago has surpassed human abilities. The AlphaGo than professional players and professional players than ordinary players shows the laying of stones in the distance becomes more frequent. In addition, AlphaGo shows a much more pronounced difference than that of ordinary players and professional players.
Keywords	Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence
Subject code	401
Publishing date	2020-02-24
Publishing country	us
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Early detection of influenza outbreak using time derivative of incidence

Woo-Sik Son / Ji-Eun Park / Okyu Kwon

EPJ Data Science, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2020 Volume 14

Abstract: Abstract For mitigation strategies of an influenza outbreak, it can be helpful to understand the characteristics of regional and age-group-specific spread. In South Korea, however, there has been no official statistic related to it. In this study, we ... ...

Abstract	Abstract For mitigation strategies of an influenza outbreak, it can be helpful to understand the characteristics of regional and age-group-specific spread. In South Korea, however, there has been no official statistic related to it. In this study, we extract the time series of influenza incidence from National Health Insurance Service claims database, which consists of all medical and prescription drug-claim records for all South Korean population. The extracted time series contains the number of new patients by region (250 city-county-districts) and age-group (0–4, 5–19, 20–64, 65+) within a week. The number of cases of influenza (2009–2017) is 12,282,356. For computing an onset of influenza outbreak by region and age-group, we propose a novel method for early outbreak detection, in which the onset of outbreak is detected as a sudden change in the time derivative of incidence. The advantage of it over the cumulative sum and the exponentially weighted moving average control charts, which have been widely used for the early outbreak detection of infectious diseases, is that information on the previous non-epidemic periods are not necessary. Then, we show that the metro area and 5–19 age-group are earlier than the rural area and other age-groups for the start of the influenza outbreak. Also, the metro area and 5–19 age-group peak earlier than the rural area and other age-groups. These results would be helpful to design a surveillance system for timely early warning of an influenza outbreak in South Korea.
Keywords	Characteristics of influenza spread ; Early outbreak detection ; Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics ; R858-859.7
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-09-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	SpringerOpen
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Early detection of influenza outbreak using time derivative of incidence.

Son, Woo-Sik / Park, Ji-Eun / Kwon, Okyu

EPJ data science

2020 Volume 9, Issue 1, Page(s) 28

Abstract: For mitigation strategies of an influenza outbreak, it can be helpful to understand the characteristics of regional and age-group-specific spread. In South Korea, however, there has been no official statistic related to it. In this study, we extract the ... ...

Abstract	For mitigation strategies of an influenza outbreak, it can be helpful to understand the characteristics of regional and age-group-specific spread. In South Korea, however, there has been no official statistic related to it. In this study, we extract the time series of influenza incidence from National Health Insurance Service claims database, which consists of all medical and prescription drug-claim records for all South Korean population. The extracted time series contains the number of new patients by region (250 city-county-districts) and age-group (0-4, 5-19, 20-64, 65+) within a week. The number of cases of influenza (2009-2017) is 12,282,356. For computing an onset of influenza outbreak by region and age-group, we propose a novel method for early outbreak detection, in which the onset of outbreak is detected as a sudden change in the time derivative of incidence. The advantage of it over the cumulative sum and the exponentially weighted moving average control charts, which have been widely used for the early outbreak detection of infectious diseases, is that information on the previous non-epidemic periods are not necessary. Then, we show that the metro area and 5-19 age-group are earlier than the rural area and other age-groups for the start of the influenza outbreak. Also, the metro area and 5-19 age-group peak earlier than the rural area and other age-groups. These results would be helpful to design a surveillance system for timely early warning of an influenza outbreak in South Korea.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-09-11
Publishing country	Germany
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2705691-0
ISSN	2193-1127
ISSN	2193-1127
DOI	10.1140/epjds/s13688-020-00246-7
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation.

Kwon, Okyu / Son, Woo-Sik / Kim, Jin Yong / Kim, Jong-Hun

Epidemiology and health

2020 Volume 42, Page(s) e2020045

Abstract: Objective: In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must ...

Abstract	Objective: In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to verify the intervention effects on the spread of an infectious disease by using these measures in a mathematical model. Methods: We used the susceptible-infectious-recovery (SIR) model for a virtual population group connected by a special structured network. In the model, the infected state (I) was divided into I in which the infection is undetected and Ix in which the infection is detected. The probability of transitioning from an I state to Ix can be viewed as the rate at which an infected person is found. We assumed that only those connected to each other in the network can cause infection. In addition, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of isolation by temporarily removing the connection among these people. Results: In Scenario 1, only the infected are isolated; in Scenario 2, those who are connected to an infected person and are also found to be infected are isolated as well. In Scenario 3, everyone connected to an infected person are isolated. In Scenario 3, it was possible to effectively suppress the infectious disease even with a relatively slow rate of diagnosis and relatively high infection rate. Conclusion: During the epidemic, quick identification of the infected is helpful. In addition, it was possible to quantitatively show through a simulation evaluation that the management of infected individuals as well as those who are connected greatly helped to suppress the spread of infectious diseases.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; COVID-19 Testing ; Clinical Laboratory Techniques/statistics & numerical data ; Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Epidemics/prevention & control ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Patient Isolation/statistics & numerical data ; Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-06-23
Publishing country	Korea (South)
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2590698-7
ISSN	2092-7193 ; 2092-7193
ISSN (online)	2092-7193
ISSN	2092-7193
DOI	10.4178/epih.e2020045
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation

Okyu Kwon / Woo-Sik Son / Jin Yong Kim / Jong-Hun Kim

Epidemiology and Health, Vol

2020 Volume 42

Abstract: Objectives In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must ... ...

Abstract	Objectives In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to verify the intervention effects on the spread of an infectious disease by using these measures in a mathematical model. Methods We used the susceptible-infectious-recovery (SIR) model for a virtual population group connected by a special structured network. In the model, the infected state (I) was divided into I in which the infection is undetected and Ix in which the infection is detected. The probability of transitioning from an I state to Ix can be viewed as the rate at which an infected person is found. We assumed that only those connected to each other in the network can cause infection. In addition, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of isolation by temporarily removing the connection among these people. Results In Scenario 1, only the infected are isolated; in Scenario 2, those who are connected to an infected person and are also found to be infected are isolated as well. In Scenario 3, everyone connected to an infected person are isolated. In Scenario 3, it was possible to effectively suppress the infectious disease even with a relatively slow rate of diagnosis and relatively high infection rate. Conclusions During the epidemic, quick identification of the infected is helpful. In addition, it was possible to quantitatively show through a simulation evaluation that the management of infected individuals as well as those who are connected greatly helped to suppress the spread of infectious diseases.
Keywords	covid-19 ; agent-based model ; non-pharmaceutical intervention ; social network ; isolation ; Medicine ; R ; covid19
Subject code	630
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-06-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Korean Society of Epidemiology
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Korea's social dynamics towards power supply and air pollution caused by electric vehicle diffusion

Ahn, Sang-Jin / Leo Kim / Okyu Kwon

Journal of cleaner production. 2018 Dec. 20, v. 205

2018

Abstract: Korea has the highest air pollution among the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Since the recent environmental analysis (Kim et al., 2017) reported the feasibility of replacing taxis with electric vehicles (EVs) in ... ...

Abstract	Korea has the highest air pollution among the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Since the recent environmental analysis (Kim et al., 2017) reported the feasibility of replacing taxis with electric vehicles (EVs) in metropolitan cities from a ‘tank-to-wheel’ emission perspective, various stakeholders have attempted to reduce air pollution by activating the EV market in Korea in accordance with international trends. Nevertheless, no holistic study has yet been published on the nationwide changes in air quality caused by EV diffusion from the perspective of ‘well-to-wheel’ emissions. This paper presents the results of estimating the stability of the electric power supply and fine particulate matter emissions in some cases, and the results of examining the structure of public discourse using big social media data. From the findings of our study, we made the following conclusions: (1) If the market share of EVs exceeds 12.5% before 2030 in Korea's domestic market, the supply and demand of stable energy will be threatened. (2) Under traditional energy mix conditions, the popularization of EVs may slightly reduce air pollution over metropolitan roads, but drastically increase air pollution near power plants that utilize fossil fuels. (3) Social media discussions show that the public is neither concerned about EVs being possible sources of pollutants, nor about potential instabilities in the energy market. (4) To obtain a socially acceptable energy mix, energy policy decision makers can select emission-free energy sources, such as nuclear power and renewable energy, depending on their priorities and based on power demand management to suppress excessive electrification.
Keywords	air pollution ; air quality ; cities ; decision making ; domestic markets ; electric power ; electric vehicles ; energy ; energy policy ; environmental assessment ; fossil fuels ; market share ; nuclear power ; particulate emissions ; pollutants ; pollution control ; power plants ; renewable energy sources ; roads ; social networks ; stakeholders ; supply balance ; Korean Peninsula
Language	English
Dates of publication	2018-1220
Size	p. 1042-1068.
Publishing place	Elsevier Ltd
Document type	Article
ISSN	0959-6526
DOI	10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.09.078
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Effects of temperature, humidity, and diurnal temperature range on influenza incidence in a temperate region.

Park, Ji-Eun / Son, Woo-Sik / Ryu, Yeonhee / Choi, Soo Beom / Kwon, Okyu / Ahn, Insung

Influenza and other respiratory viruses

2019 Volume 14, Issue 1, Page(s) 11–18

Abstract: Background: The effect of temperature and humidity on the incidence of influenza may differ by climate region. In addition, the effect of diurnal temperature range on influenza incidence is unclear, according to previous study findings.: Objectives: ... ...

Abstract	Background: The effect of temperature and humidity on the incidence of influenza may differ by climate region. In addition, the effect of diurnal temperature range on influenza incidence is unclear, according to previous study findings. Objectives: The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of temperature, humidity, and diurnal temperature range on the incidence of influenza in Seoul, Republic of Korea, which is located in a temperate region. Methods: We used Korean National Health insurance data to assess the weekly influenza incidence between 2010 and 2016, and used meteorological data from Seoul. To investigate the effect of temperature, relative humidity, and diurnal temperature range levels on influenza incidence, we used a distributed lag non-linear model. Results: The risk of influenza incidence was significantly increased with low daily temperatures of 0-5°C and low (30%-40%) or high (70%) relative humidity. We found a positive significant association between diurnal temperature range and influenza incidence in this study. Conclusions: Influenza incidence increased with low temperature and low/high humidity in a temperate region. Influenza incidence also increased with high diurnal temperature range, after considering temperature and humidity.
MeSH term(s)	Climate ; Humans ; Humidity ; Incidence ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Temperature
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-10-21
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2274538-5
ISSN	1750-2659 ; 1750-2640
ISSN (online)	1750-2659
ISSN	1750-2640
DOI	10.1111/irv.12682
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Article: Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation

Kwon, Okyu / Son, Woo-Sik / Kim, Jin Yong / Kim, Jong-Hun

Epidemiol Health

Abstract	Objective: In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to verify the intervention effects on the spread of an infectious disease by using these measures in a mathematical model. Methods: We used the susceptible-infectious-recovery (SIR) model for a virtual population group connected by a special structured network. In the model, the infected state (I) was divided into I in which the infection is undetected and Ix in which the infection is detected. The probability of transitioning from an I state to Ix can be viewed as the rate at which an infected person is found. We assumed that only those connected to each other in the network can cause infection. In addition, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of isolation by temporarily removing the connection among these people. Results: In Scenario 1, only the infected are isolated; in Scenario 2, those who are connected to an infected person and are also found to be infected are isolated as well. In Scenario 3, everyone connected to an infected person are isolated. In Scenario 3, it was possible to effectively suppress the infectious disease even with a relatively slow rate of diagnosis and relatively high infection rate. Conclusion: During the epidemic, quick identification of the infected is helpful. In addition, it was possible to quantitatively show through a simulation evaluation that the management of infected individuals as well as those who are connected greatly helped to suppress the spread of infectious diseases.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	WHO
Document type	Article
Note	WHO #Covidence: #615323
Database	COVID19

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