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  1. Article ; Online: The importance of local context in COVID-19 models.

    Eggo, Rosalind M / Dawa, Jeanette / Kucharski, Adam J / Cucunuba, Zulma M

    Nature computational science

    2024  Volume 1, Issue 1, Page(s) 6–8

    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-01-12
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2662-8457
    ISSN (online) 2662-8457
    DOI 10.1038/s43588-020-00014-7
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Detecting changes in generation and serial intervals under varying pathogen biology, contact patterns and outbreak response.

    Pung, Rachael / Russell, Timothy W / Kucharski, Adam J

    PLoS computational biology

    2024  Volume 20, Issue 3, Page(s) e1011967

    Abstract: The epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission have changed over the pandemic due to emergence of new variants. A decrease in the generation or serial intervals would imply a shortened transmission timescale and, hence, outbreak response ... ...

    Abstract The epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission have changed over the pandemic due to emergence of new variants. A decrease in the generation or serial intervals would imply a shortened transmission timescale and, hence, outbreak response measures would need to expand at a faster rate. However, there are challenges in measuring these intervals. Alongside epidemiological changes, factors like varying delays in outbreak response, social contact patterns, dependence on the growth phase of an outbreak, and effects of exposure to multiple infectors can also influence measured generation or serial intervals. To guide real-time interpretation of variant data, we simulated concurrent changes in the aforementioned factors and estimated the statistical power to detect a change in the generation and serial interval. We compared our findings to the reported decrease or lack thereof in the generation and serial intervals of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our study helps to clarify contradictory outbreak observations and informs the required sample sizes under certain outbreak conditions to ensure that future studies of generation and serial intervals are adequately powered.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Pandemics ; Forecasting ; Biology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-22
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2193340-6
    ISSN 1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
    ISSN (online) 1553-7358
    ISSN 1553-734X
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011967
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Effective surveillance of variants.

    Kucharski, Adam J / Cohen, Cheryl

    Science (New York, N.Y.)

    2022  Volume 375, Issue 6587, Page(s) 1349–1350

    Abstract: Community testing studies can provide insights as SARS-CoV-2 evolves. ...

    Abstract Community testing studies can provide insights as SARS-CoV-2 evolves.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-03-24
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 128410-1
    ISSN 1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
    ISSN (online) 1095-9203
    ISSN 0036-8075
    DOI 10.1126/science.abo4257
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 27: Show issues Location:
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    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)
    Zs.MG 77: Show issues

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  4. Article ; Online: Ten simple rules for writing a popular science book.

    Kucharski, Adam J

    PLoS computational biology

    2018  Volume 14, Issue 2, Page(s) e1005808

    MeSH term(s) Books ; Communication ; Science ; Writing
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Editorial
    ZDB-ID 2193340-6
    ISSN 1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
    ISSN (online) 1553-7358
    ISSN 1553-734X
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005808
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  5. Article ; Online: Using serological data to understand unobserved SARS-CoV-2 risk in health-care settings.

    Kucharski, Adam J / Nilles, Eric J

    The Lancet. Infectious diseases

    2020  Volume 20, Issue 12, Page(s) 1351–1352

    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Delivery of Health Care ; Health ; Humans ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-08-03
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 2061641-7
    ISSN 1474-4457 ; 1473-3099
    ISSN (online) 1474-4457
    ISSN 1473-3099
    DOI 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30579-X
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 5743: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (2.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  6. Article ; Online: Invisible spread of SARS-CoV-2 - Authors' reply.

    Kucharski, Adam J / Eggo, Rosalind M

    The Lancet. Infectious diseases

    2020  Volume 20, Issue 9, Page(s) 1012

    MeSH term(s) Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; SARS-CoV-2
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-08
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Letter ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 2061641-7
    ISSN 1474-4457 ; 1473-3099
    ISSN (online) 1474-4457
    ISSN 1473-3099
    DOI 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30275-9
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    Zs.A 5743: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (2.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  7. Article: INFLUENZA. DER BLINDE FLECK DER IMMUNABWEHR. Eine überstandene Grippeinfektion schützt nicht unbedingt vor nur wenig veränderten Erregern. Warum das so ist, erklärt die »Antigenerbsünde«

    Kucharski, Adam J.

    Spektrum der Wissenschaft : Spezial

    2019  Volume -, Issue 3, Page(s) 56

    Language German
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 2938618-4
    ISSN 2193-4452 ; 2625-7947
    Database Current Contents Medicine

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 2122 -Spezial-: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  8. Article ; Online: The impact of local vaccine coverage and recent incidence on measles transmission in France between 2009 and 2018.

    Robert, Alexis / Kucharski, Adam J / Funk, Sebastian

    BMC medicine

    2022  Volume 20, Issue 1, Page(s) 77

    Abstract: Background: Subnational heterogeneity in immunity to measles can create pockets of susceptibility and result in long-lasting outbreaks despite high levels of national vaccine coverage. The elimination status defined by the World Health Organization aims ...

    Abstract Background: Subnational heterogeneity in immunity to measles can create pockets of susceptibility and result in long-lasting outbreaks despite high levels of national vaccine coverage. The elimination status defined by the World Health Organization aims to identify countries where the virus is no longer circulating and can be verified after 36 months of interrupted transmission. However, since 2018, numerous countries have lost their elimination status soon after reaching it, showing that the indicators defining elimination may not be associated with lower risks of outbreaks.
    Methods: We quantified the impact of local vaccine coverage and recent levels of incidence on the dynamics of measles in each French department between 2009 and 2018, using mathematical models based on the "Endemic-Epidemic" regression framework. After fitting the models using daily case counts, we simulated the effect of variations in the vaccine coverage and recent incidence on future transmission.
    Results: High values of local vaccine coverage were associated with fewer imported cases and lower risks of local transmissions, but regions that had recently reported high levels of incidence were also at a lower risk of local transmission. This may be due to additional immunity accumulated during recent outbreaks. Therefore, the risk of local transmission was not lower in areas fulfilling the elimination criteria. A decrease of 3% in the 3-year average vaccine uptake led to a fivefold increase in the average annual number of cases in simulated outbreaks.
    Conclusions: Local vaccine uptake was a reliable indicator of the intensity of transmission in France, even if it only describes yearly coverage in a given age group, and ignores population movements. Therefore, spatiotemporal variations in vaccine coverage, caused by disruptions in routine immunisation programmes, or lower trust in vaccines, can lead to large increases in both local and cross-regional transmission. The incidence indicator used to define the elimination status was not associated with a lower number of local transmissions in France, and may not illustrate the risks of imminent outbreaks. More detailed models of local immunity levels or subnational seroprevalence studies may yield better estimates of local risk of measles outbreaks.
    MeSH term(s) Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Measles/epidemiology ; Measles/prevention & control ; Measles Vaccine ; Seroepidemiologic Studies ; Vaccination
    Chemical Substances Measles Vaccine
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-03-10
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2131669-7
    ISSN 1741-7015 ; 1741-7015
    ISSN (online) 1741-7015
    ISSN 1741-7015
    DOI 10.1186/s12916-022-02277-5
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  9. Article ; Online: Sharing, synthesis and sustainability of data analysis for epidemic preparedness in Europe.

    Kucharski, Adam J / Hodcroft, Emma B / Kraemer, Moritz U G

    The Lancet regional health. Europe

    2021  Volume 9, Page(s) 100215

    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-10-07
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Review
    ISSN 2666-7762
    ISSN (online) 2666-7762
    DOI 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100215
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  10. Article ; Online: o2geosocial

    Robert, Alexis / Funk, Sebastian / Kucharski, Adam J

    F1000Research

    2021  Volume 10, Page(s) 31

    Abstract: Reconstructing the history of individual transmission events between cases is key to understanding what factors facilitate the spread of an infectious disease. Since conducting extended contact-tracing investigations can be logistically challenging and ... ...

    Abstract Reconstructing the history of individual transmission events between cases is key to understanding what factors facilitate the spread of an infectious disease. Since conducting extended contact-tracing investigations can be logistically challenging and costly, statistical inference methods have been developed to reconstruct transmission trees from onset dates and genetic sequences. However, these methods are not as effective if the mutation rate of the virus is very slow, or if sequencing data is sparse. We developed the package
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-01-18
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2699932-8
    ISSN 2046-1402 ; 2046-1402
    ISSN (online) 2046-1402
    ISSN 2046-1402
    DOI 10.12688/f1000research.28073.2
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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