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  1. Article ; Online: Estimating the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from the size distribution of clusters of identical pathogen sequences.

    Tran-Kiem, Cécile / Bedford, Trevor

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

    2024  Volume 121, Issue 15, Page(s) e2305299121

    Abstract: Quantifying transmission intensity and heterogeneity is crucial to ascertain the threat posed by infectious diseases and inform the design of interventions. Methods that jointly estimate the reproduction ... ...

    Abstract Quantifying transmission intensity and heterogeneity is crucial to ascertain the threat posed by infectious diseases and inform the design of interventions. Methods that jointly estimate the reproduction number
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Phylogeny ; Communicable Diseases ; Contact Tracing
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-04-03
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 209104-5
    ISSN 1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
    ISSN (online) 1091-6490
    ISSN 0027-8424
    DOI 10.1073/pnas.2305299121
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    Zs.A 1148: Show issues Location:
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  2. Article ; Online: Managing COVID-19 importation risks in a heterogeneous world.

    Cauchemez, Simon / Kiem, Cécile Tran

    The Lancet. Public health

    2021  Volume 6, Issue 9, Page(s) e626–e627

    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-08-11
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Comment
    ISSN 2468-2667
    ISSN (online) 2468-2667
    DOI 10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00188-2
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  3. Article ; Online: Managing COVID-19 importation risks in a heterogeneous world

    Simon Cauchemez / Cécile Tran Kiem

    The Lancet Public Health, Vol 6, Iss 9, Pp e626-e

    2021  Volume 627

    Keywords Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-09-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Elsevier
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Book ; Online: Code and data for

    Salje, Henrik / Tran Kiem, Cécile

    Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

    2020  

    Abstract: Code used for the inference of the probability of hospitalization and death by age and sex and the implementation and calibration of the transmission model of COVID-19 in the french population (Salje et al., Science, 2020). Aggregated hospitalization ... ...

    Abstract Code used for the inference of the probability of hospitalization and death by age and sex and the implementation and calibration of the transmission model of COVID-19 in the french population (Salje et al., Science, 2020). Aggregated hospitalization data for France used for the calibration of those models are also made available.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-13
    Publishing country eu
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Book ; Online: Code and data for

    Salje, Henrik / Tran Kiem, Cécile

    Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

    2020  

    Abstract: Code used for the inference of the probability of hospitalization and death by age and sex and the implementation and calibration of the transmission model of COVID-19 in the french population (Salje et al., Science, 2020). Aggregated hospitalization ... ...

    Abstract Code used for the inference of the probability of hospitalization and death by age and sex and the implementation and calibration of the transmission model of COVID-19 in the french population (Salje et al., Science, 2020). Aggregated hospitalization data for France used for the calibration of those models are also made available.

    Update to account for patients outcome on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-13
    Publishing country eu
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article ; Online: Underdetected dispersal and extensive local transmission drove the 2022 mpox epidemic.

    Paredes, Miguel I / Ahmed, Nashwa / Figgins, Marlin / Colizza, Vittoria / Lemey, Philippe / McCrone, John T / Müller, Nicola / Tran-Kiem, Cécile / Bedford, Trevor

    Cell

    2024  Volume 187, Issue 6, Page(s) 1374–1386.e13

    Abstract: The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and ... ...

    Abstract The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Disease Outbreaks ; Epidemics ; Mpox (monkeypox)/epidemiology ; Mpox (monkeypox)/transmission ; Mpox (monkeypox)/virology ; Public Health ; Monkeypox virus/physiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-29
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 187009-9
    ISSN 1097-4172 ; 0092-8674
    ISSN (online) 1097-4172
    ISSN 0092-8674
    DOI 10.1016/j.cell.2024.02.003
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    Zs.A 1167: Show issues Location:
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    Zs.MG 58: Show issues

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  7. Article ; Online: Education and mental health: good reasons to vaccinate children.

    Cauchemez, Simon / Bosetti, Paolo / Kiem, Cécile Tran / Mouro, Violette / Consoli, Angèle / Fontanet, Arnaud

    Lancet (London, England)

    2021  Volume 398, Issue 10298, Page(s) 387

    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 Vaccines ; Child ; Education ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Patient Acceptance of Health Care ; Vaccination
    Chemical Substances COVID-19 Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-07-15
    Publishing country England
    Document type Letter ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 3306-6
    ISSN 1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    ISSN (online) 1474-547X
    ISSN 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01453-7
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    Ua VI Zs.5: Show issues Location:
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  8. Article ; Online: Epidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in partially vaccinated populations: a modeling study applied to France.

    Bosetti, Paolo / Tran Kiem, Cécile / Andronico, Alessio / Colizza, Vittoria / Yazdanpanah, Yazdan / Fontanet, Arnaud / Benamouzig, Daniel / Cauchemez, Simon

    BMC medicine

    2022  Volume 20, Issue 1, Page(s) 33

    Abstract: Background: Vaccination is expected to change the epidemiology and management of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.: Methods: We used an age-stratified compartmental model calibrated to French data to anticipate these changes and determine implications for the ... ...

    Abstract Background: Vaccination is expected to change the epidemiology and management of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.
    Methods: We used an age-stratified compartmental model calibrated to French data to anticipate these changes and determine implications for the control of an autumn epidemic. We assumed vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalization, infection, and transmission if infected by 95%, 60%, and 50%, respectively.
    Results: In our baseline scenario characterized by basic reproduction number R
    Conclusions: With the Delta variant, vaccinated individuals are well protected against hospitalization but remain at risk of infection and should therefore apply protective behaviors (e.g., mask-wearing). Targeting non-vaccinated individuals may maximize epidemic control while minimizing costs for society. Vaccinating children protects them from the deleterious effects of non-pharmaceutical measures. Control strategies should account for the changing SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
    MeSH term(s) Adolescent ; Adult ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Epidemics ; Epidemiological Models ; France/epidemiology ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Middle Aged ; SARS-CoV-2
    Chemical Substances COVID-19 Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-01-26
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2131669-7
    ISSN 1741-7015 ; 1741-7015
    ISSN (online) 1741-7015
    ISSN 1741-7015
    DOI 10.1186/s12916-022-02235-1
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  9. Article ; Online: Impact of booster vaccination on the control of COVID-19 Delta wave in the context of waning immunity: application to France in the winter 2021/22.

    Bosetti, Paolo / Tran Kiem, Cécile / Andronico, Alessio / Paireau, Juliette / Levy-Bruhl, Daniel / Alter, Lise / Fontanet, Arnaud / Cauchemez, Simon

    Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

    2022  Volume 27, Issue 1

    Abstract: Europe has experienced a large COVID-19 wave caused by the Delta variant in winter 2021/22. Using mathematical models applied to Metropolitan France, we find that boosters administered to ≥ 65, ≥ 50 or ≥ 18 year-olds may reduce the hospitalisation peak ... ...

    Abstract Europe has experienced a large COVID-19 wave caused by the Delta variant in winter 2021/22. Using mathematical models applied to Metropolitan France, we find that boosters administered to ≥ 65, ≥ 50 or ≥ 18 year-olds may reduce the hospitalisation peak by 25%, 36% and 43% respectively, with a delay of 5 months between second and third dose. A 10% reduction in transmission rates might further reduce it by 41%, indicating that even small increases in protective behaviours may be critical to mitigate the wave.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage ; France/epidemiology ; Humans ; Immunization, Secondary ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Seasons ; Vaccination
    Chemical Substances COVID-19 Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-01-06
    Publishing country Sweden
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1338803-4
    ISSN 1560-7917 ; 1025-496X
    ISSN (online) 1560-7917
    ISSN 1025-496X
    DOI 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.1.2101125
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    Zs.A 5066: Show issues Location:
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  10. Article: Early underdetected dissemination across countries followed by extensive local transmission propelled the 2022 mpox epidemic.

    Paredes, Miguel I / Ahmed, Nashwa / Figgins, Marlin / Colizza, Vittoria / Lemey, Philippe / McCrone, John T / Müller, Nicola / Tran-Kiem, Cécile / Bedford, Trevor

    medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

    2023  

    Abstract: The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and ... ...

    Abstract The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case-reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-12-07
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Preprint
    DOI 10.1101/2023.07.27.23293266
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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