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Article ; Online: Accuracy of automated computer-aided risk scoring systems to estimate the risk of COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study.

Faisal, Muhammad / Mohammed, Mohammed Amin / Richardson, Donald / Fiori, Massimo / Beatson, Kevin

2024 Volume 17, Issue 1, Page(s) 109

Abstract: Background: In the UK National Health Service (NHS), the patient's vital signs are monitored and summarised into a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) score. A set of computer-aided risk scoring systems (CARSS) was developed and validated for predicting ...

Abstract	Background: In the UK National Health Service (NHS), the patient's vital signs are monitored and summarised into a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) score. A set of computer-aided risk scoring systems (CARSS) was developed and validated for predicting in-hospital mortality and sepsis in unplanned admission to hospital using NEWS and routine blood tests results. We sought to assess the accuracy of these models to predict the risk of COVID-19 in unplanned admissions during the first phase of the pandemic. Methods: Adult ( > = 18 years) non-elective admissions discharged (alive/deceased) between 11-March-2020 to 13-June-2020 from two acute hospitals with an index NEWS electronically recorded within ± 24 h of admission. We identified COVID-19 admission based on ICD-10 code 'U071' which was determined by COVID-19 swab test results (hospital or community). We assessed the performance of CARSS (CARS_N, CARS_NB, CARM_N, CARM_NB) for predicting the risk of COVID-19 in terms of discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (graphically). Results: The risk of in-hospital mortality following emergency medical admission was 8.4% (500/6444) and 9.6% (620/6444) had a diagnosis of COVID-19. For predicting COVID-19 admissions, the CARS_N model had the highest discrimination 0.73 (0.71 to 0.75) and calibration slope 0.81 (0.72 to 0.89) compared to other CARSS models: CARM_N (discrimination:0.68 (0.66 to 0.70) and calibration slope 0.47 (0.41 to 0.54)), CARM_NB (discrimination:0.68 (0.65 to 0.70) and calibration slope 0.37 (0.31 to 0.43)), and CARS_NB (discrimination:0.68 (0.66 to 0.70) and calibration slope 0.56 (0.47 to 0.64)). Conclusions: The CARS_N model is reasonably accurate for predicting the risk of COVID-19. It may be clinically useful as an early warning system at the time of admission especially to triage large numbers of unplanned admissions because it requires no additional data collection and is readily automated.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Humans ; Retrospective Studies ; State Medicine ; Risk Assessment/methods ; COVID-19/diagnosis ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Hospital Mortality ; Computers
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-18
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2413336-X
ISSN	1756-0500 ; 1756-0500
ISSN (online)	1756-0500
ISSN	1756-0500
DOI	10.1186/s13104-024-06773-0
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Book ; Online: Locally Adaptive Hierarchical Cluster Termination With Application To Individual Tree Delineation

Richardson, Ashlin / Leckie, Donald

2022

Abstract: A clustering termination procedure which is locally adaptive (with respect to the hierarchical tree of sets representative of the agglomerative merging) is proposed, for agglomerative hierarchical clustering on a set equipped with a distance function. It ...

Abstract	A clustering termination procedure which is locally adaptive (with respect to the hierarchical tree of sets representative of the agglomerative merging) is proposed, for agglomerative hierarchical clustering on a set equipped with a distance function. It represents a multi-scale alternative to conventional scale dependent threshold based termination criteria. Comment: 8 pages, 14 figures
Keywords	Statistics - Machine Learning ; Computer Science - Machine Learning ; 62H30 (Primary) ; I.5.3 ; I.5.4
Publishing date	2022-12-01
Publishing country	us
Document type	Book ; Online
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Article ; Online: GCE special edition: 8th Intercongress of the AOSCE, held at the University of Sydney 8-12 July 2018.

McAllan, Bronwyn / Danks, Janine / Donald, John / Richardson, Samantha

General and comparative endocrinology

2020 Volume 299, Page(s) 113594

Language	English
Publishing date	2020-08-26
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Editorial
ZDB-ID	1851-x
ISSN	1095-6840 ; 0016-6480
ISSN (online)	1095-6840
ISSN	0016-6480
DOI	10.1016/j.ygcen.2020.113594
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Article ; Online: Development and validation of automated computer-aided risk scores to predict in-hospital mortality for emergency medical admissions with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort development and validation study.

Faisal, Muhammad / Mohammed, Mohammed / Richardson, Donald / Fiori, Massimo / Beatson, Kevin

BMJ open

2022 Volume 12, Issue 8, Page(s) e050274

Abstract: Objectives: There are no established mortality risk equations specifically for unplanned emergency medical admissions which include patients with SARS-19 (COVID-19). We aim to develop and validate a computer-aided risk score (CARMc19) for predicting ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: There are no established mortality risk equations specifically for unplanned emergency medical admissions which include patients with SARS-19 (COVID-19). We aim to develop and validate a computer-aided risk score (CARMc19) for predicting mortality risk by combining COVID-19 status, the first electronically recorded blood test results and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2). Design: Logistic regression model development and validation study. Setting: Two acute hospitals (York Hospital-model development data; Scarborough Hospital-external validation data). Participants: Adult (aged ≥16 years) medical admissions discharged over a 24-month period with electronic NEWS and blood test results recorded on admission. We used logistic regression modelling to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality using two models: (1) CARMc19_N: age+sex+NEWS2 including subcomponents+COVID19; (2) CARMc19_NB: CARMc19_N in conjunction with seven blood test results and acute kidney injury score. Model performance was evaluated according to discrimination (c-statistic), calibration (graphically) and clinical usefulness at NEWS2 thresholds of 4+, 5+, 6+. Results: The risk of in-hospital mortality following emergency medical admission was similar in development and validation datasets (8.4% vs 8.2%). The c-statistics for predicting mortality for CARMc19_NB is better than CARMc19_N in the validation dataset (CARMc19_NB=0.88 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.90) vs CARMc19_N=0.86 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.88)). Both models had good calibration (CARMc19_NB=1.01 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.14) and CARMc19_N:0.95 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.06)). At all NEWS2 thresholds (4+, 5+, 6+) model, CARMc19_NB had better sensitivity and similar specificity. Conclusions: We have developed a validated CARMc19 scores with good performance characteristics for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality. Since the CARMc19 scores place no additional data collection burden on clinicians, it may now be carefully introduced and evaluated in hospitals with sufficient informatics infrastructure.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; COVID-19 ; Computers ; Hospital Mortality ; Humans ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-08-30
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2599832-8
ISSN	2044-6055 ; 2044-6055
ISSN (online)	2044-6055
ISSN	2044-6055
DOI	10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050274
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Article ; Online: Special Issue "Fungal Burden in Different Countries".

Richardson, Malcolm D / Cole, Donald C

Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)

2018 Volume 4, Issue 3

Abstract: Adults and children living in many countries face a combined burden of infectious diseasesincluding fungal infections (for example, tinea capitis, recurrent vulvo-vaginal thrush, chronicpulmonary aspergillosis, candidemia) [ ... ]. ...

Abstract	Adults and children living in many countries face a combined burden of infectious diseasesincluding fungal infections (for example, tinea capitis, recurrent vulvo-vaginal thrush, chronicpulmonary aspergillosis, candidemia) [...].
Language	English
Publishing date	2018-07-03
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Editorial
ZDB-ID	2784229-0
ISSN	2309-608X ; 2309-608X
ISSN (online)	2309-608X
ISSN	2309-608X
DOI	10.3390/jof4030080
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Article ; Online: Development and validation of automated computer-aided risk scores to predict in-hospital mortality for emergency medical admissions with COVID-19

Muhammad Faisal / Donald Richardson / Kevin Beatson / Mohammed Mohammed / Massimo Fiori

BMJ Open, Vol 12, Iss

a retrospective cohort development and validation study

2022 Volume 8

Abstract: Objectives There are no established mortality risk equations specifically for unplanned emergency medical admissions which include patients with SARS-19 (COVID-19). We aim to develop and validate a computer-aided risk score (CARMc19) for predicting ... ...

Abstract	Objectives There are no established mortality risk equations specifically for unplanned emergency medical admissions which include patients with SARS-19 (COVID-19). We aim to develop and validate a computer-aided risk score (CARMc19) for predicting mortality risk by combining COVID-19 status, the first electronically recorded blood test results and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2).Design Logistic regression model development and validation study.Setting Two acute hospitals (York Hospital—model development data; Scarborough Hospital—external validation data).Participants Adult (aged ≥16 years) medical admissions discharged over a 24-month period with electronic NEWS and blood test results recorded on admission. We used logistic regression modelling to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality using two models: (1) CARMc19_N: age+sex+NEWS2 including subcomponents+COVID19; (2) CARMc19_NB: CARMc19_N in conjunction with seven blood test results and acute kidney injury score. Model performance was evaluated according to discrimination (c-statistic), calibration (graphically) and clinical usefulness at NEWS2 thresholds of 4+, 5+, 6+.Results The risk of in-hospital mortality following emergency medical admission was similar in development and validation datasets (8.4% vs 8.2%). The c-statistics for predicting mortality for CARMc19_NB is better than CARMc19_N in the validation dataset (CARMc19_NB=0.88 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.90) vs CARMc19_N=0.86 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.88)). Both models had good calibration (CARMc19_NB=1.01 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.14) and CARMc19_N:0.95 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.06)). At all NEWS2 thresholds (4+, 5+, 6+) model, CARMc19_NB had better sensitivity and similar specificity.Conclusions We have developed a validated CARMc19 scores with good performance characteristics for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality. Since the CARMc19 scores place no additional data collection burden on clinicians, it may now be carefully introduced and evaluated in hospitals with sufficient informatics infrastructure.
Keywords	Medicine ; R
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-08-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMJ Publishing Group
Document type	Article ; Online
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Article ; Online: Hyperdirect connectivity of opercular speech network to the subthalamic nucleus.

Jorge, Ahmed / Lipski, Witold J / Wang, Dengyu / Crammond, Donald J / Turner, Robert S / Richardson, R Mark

Cell reports

2022 Volume 38, Issue 10, Page(s) 110477

Abstract: How the basal ganglia participate in the uniquely human behavior of speech is poorly understood, despite their known role in modulating critical aspects of cognitive and motor behavior. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is well positioned to facilitate basal ...

Abstract	How the basal ganglia participate in the uniquely human behavior of speech is poorly understood, despite their known role in modulating critical aspects of cognitive and motor behavior. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is well positioned to facilitate basal ganglia functions critical for speech. Using electrocorticography in patients undergoing awake deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery, evidence is reported for a left opercular hyperdirect pathway in humans via stimulating the STN and examining antidromic-evoked activity in the left temporal, parietal, and frontal opercular cortex. These high-resolution cortical and subcortical mapping data provide evidence for hyperdirect connectivity between the inferior frontal gyrus and the STN. In addition, evoked potential data are consistent with the presence of monosynaptic projections from areas of the opercular speech cortex that are primarily sensory, including the auditory cortex, to the STN. These connections may be unique to humans, evolving alongside the ability for speech.
MeSH term(s)	Basal Ganglia ; Evoked Potentials ; Humans ; Neural Pathways/physiology ; Speech ; Subthalamic Nucleus
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-03-09
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
ZDB-ID	2649101-1
ISSN	2211-1247 ; 2211-1247
ISSN (online)	2211-1247
ISSN	2211-1247
DOI	10.1016/j.celrep.2022.110477
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Article ; Online: Disentangling the causes of temporal variation in the opportunity for sexual selection.

Carleial, Rômulo / Pizzari, Tommaso / Richardson, David S / McDonald, Grant C

Nature communications

2023 Volume 14, Issue 1, Page(s) 1006

Abstract: In principle, temporal fluctuations in the potential for sexual selection can be estimated as changes in intrasexual variance in reproductive success (i.e. the opportunity for selection). However, we know little about how opportunity measures vary over ... ...

Abstract	In principle, temporal fluctuations in the potential for sexual selection can be estimated as changes in intrasexual variance in reproductive success (i.e. the opportunity for selection). However, we know little about how opportunity measures vary over time, and the extent to which such dynamics are affected by stochasticity. We use published mating data from multiple species to investigate temporal variation in the opportunity for sexual selection. First, we show that the opportunity for precopulatory sexual selection typically declines over successive days in both sexes and shorter sampling periods lead to substantial overestimates. Second, by utilising randomised null models, we also find that these dynamics are largely explained by an accumulation of random matings, but that intrasexual competition may slow temporal declines. Third, using data from a red junglefowl (Gallus gallus) population, we show that declines in precopulatory measures over a breeding period were mirrored by declines in the opportunity for both postcopulatory and total sexual selection. Collectively, we show that variance-based metrics of selection change rapidly, are highly sensitive to sampling durations, and likely lead to substantial misinterpretation if used as indicators of sexual selection. However, simulations can begin to disentangle stochastic variation from biological mechanisms.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Female ; Male ; Sexual Selection ; Sexual Behavior, Animal ; Reproduction ; Chickens ; Mating Preference, Animal
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-02-22
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2553671-0
ISSN	2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
ISSN (online)	2041-1723
ISSN	2041-1723
DOI	10.1038/s41467-023-36536-7
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Article ; Online: A comparison of Er,Cr:YSGG laser to minimally invasive surgical technique in the treatment of intrabony defects: Twelve-month results of a multicenter, randomized, controlled study.

Clem, Donald / Heard, Rick / McGuire, Michael / Scheyer, E Todd / Richardson, Chris / Toback, Gregory / Gunsolley, John C / Geurs, Nico

Journal of periodontology

2023

Abstract: Background: The purpose of this publication is to report on the 12-month clinical and radiographic results comparing the surgical use of the Er,Cr:YSGG laser (ERL) and minimally invasive surgical technique (MIST) for the treatment of intrabony defects ... ...

Abstract	Background: The purpose of this publication is to report on the 12-month clinical and radiographic results comparing the surgical use of the Er,Cr:YSGG laser (ERL) and minimally invasive surgical technique (MIST) for the treatment of intrabony defects in subjects with generalized periodontitis stage III, grade B. Methods: Fifty-three adult subjects (29 females and 24 males; 19-73 years) with 79 intrabony defects were randomized following scaling and root planing (SRP) to receive ERL monotherapy (n = 27) or MIST (n = 26). Fifty subjects completed the study. Recession (REC), probing depth (PD), clinical attachment level (CAL), treatment time, and standardized radiographs were assessed and compared for each treatment group. Clinical measurements were recorded at baseline, 4-6 weeks following SRP, and 6 and 12 months following surgical therapy. Radiographic results were compared to baseline at 6 and 12 months following surgical therapy. Results: The following primary and secondary outcome variables were non-inferior with the following margins: CAL with a non-inferiority margin of 0.7 mm (p = 0.05), PD with a non-inferiority margin of 0.7 mm (p = 0.05), and REC with a non-inferiority margin of 0.4 mm (p = 0.05). Standardized radiographs suggest similar bone fill of 1.14 ± 1.73 mm for MIST and 1.12 ± 1.52 mm for ERL. Conclusions: This is the first multicenter, randomized, masked, and controlled study demonstrating the ERL is not inferior to MIST at 12 months in terms of clinical outcomes and similar to MIST in terms of radiographic bone fill for the surgical treatment of intrabony defects.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-17
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	390921-9
ISSN	1943-3670 ; 0022-3492 ; 1049-8885 ; 0095-960X
ISSN (online)	1943-3670
ISSN	0022-3492 ; 1049-8885 ; 0095-960X
DOI	10.1002/JPER.23-0286
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Article ; Online: Limited Durability of Extensor Mechanism Reconstruction Following Total Knee Arthroplasty: Mesh and Allograft Show Equivalent Outcomes at Five-Year Follow-Up.

Richardson, Mary K / Ross, Ryan C / Kusnezov, Nicholas / Vega, Andrew N / Ludington, John / Longjohn, Donald B / Oakes, Daniel A / Heckmann, Nathanael D

The Journal of arthroplasty

2023 Volume 39, Issue 3, Page(s) 772–777

Abstract: Background: Extensor mechanism disruption is a challenging complication following total knee arthroplasty. The purpose of this study was to compare outcomes between patients who received mesh versus allograft extensor mechanism reconstruction.: ... ...

Abstract	Background: Extensor mechanism disruption is a challenging complication following total knee arthroplasty. The purpose of this study was to compare outcomes between patients who received mesh versus allograft extensor mechanism reconstruction. Methods: All patients who underwent extensor mechanism reconstruction at a single institution were screened. Demographic and surgical variables were recorded, including technique (ie, synthetic mesh versus allograft reconstruction). Patients were assessed for preoperative and postoperative extensor lag, revision, and duration of follow-up. Analyses, including Kaplan-Meier survivorships, were performed to compare mesh to allograft reconstruction. In total, 50 extensor mechanism reconstructions (30 mesh and 20 allograft) were conducted between January 1st, 2001, and December 31st, 2022. Results: There were no differences between the cohorts with respect to revision (26.7 [8 of 30] versus 35.0% [7 of 20], P = .680) or failure defined as above knee amputation or fusion (6.7 [2 of 30] versus 5.0% [1 of 20], P = .808). There were also no differences in time to reoperation (average 27 months [range, 6.7 to 58.8] versus 29 months [range, 1.2 to 84.9], P = .910) or in postoperative extensor lag among patients who did not undergo a reoperation (13 [0 to 50] versus 11° [0 to 30], P = .921). The estimated 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival with extensor mechanism revision as the endpoint was similar between the 2 groups (52.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 25.4 to 73.3 versus 55.0%, 95% CI = 23.0 to 78.4%, P = .990). Conclusions: The purpose of this study was to present the findings of a large cohort of patients who required extensor mechanism reconstruction. Regardless of the reconstruction type, the 5-year outcomes of patients requiring extensor mechanism reconstruction are suboptimal.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee/adverse effects ; Knee Joint/surgery ; Follow-Up Studies ; Surgical Mesh ; Reoperation ; Allografts ; Treatment Outcome ; Retrospective Studies
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-09-29
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	632770-9
ISSN	1532-8406 ; 0883-5403
ISSN (online)	1532-8406
ISSN	0883-5403
DOI	10.1016/j.arth.2023.09.033
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