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  1. Article ; Online: Masks and distancing during COVID-19: a causal framework for imputing value to public-health interventions.

    Babino, Andres / Magnasco, Marcelo O

    Scientific reports

    2021  Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 5183

    Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework ... ...

    Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework to assess these effects retrospectively. We use a regularized regression to find a parsimonious model that fits the data with the least changes in the [Formula: see text] parameter. Then, we postulate each jump in [Formula: see text] as the effect of an intervention. Following the do-operator prescriptions, we simulate the counterfactual case by forcing [Formula: see text] to stay at the pre-jump value. We then attribute a value to the intervention from the difference between true evolution and simulated counterfactual. We show that the recommendation to use facemasks for all activities would reduce the number of cases by 200,000 ([Formula: see text] CI 190,000-210,000) in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York State. The framework presented here might be used in any case where cause and effects are sparse in time.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Humans ; Masks ; Models, Statistical ; Physical Distancing ; Retrospective Studies ; United States/epidemiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-03-04
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-021-84679-8
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Masks and distancing during COVID-19

    Andres Babino / Marcelo O. Magnasco

    Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    a causal framework for imputing value to public-health interventions

    2021  Volume 10

    Abstract: Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven ... ...

    Abstract Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework to assess these effects retrospectively. We use a regularized regression to find a parsimonious model that fits the data with the least changes in the $$R_t$$ R t parameter. Then, we postulate each jump in $$R_t$$ R t as the effect of an intervention. Following the do-operator prescriptions, we simulate the counterfactual case by forcing $$R_t$$ R t to stay at the pre-jump value. We then attribute a value to the intervention from the difference between true evolution and simulated counterfactual. We show that the recommendation to use facemasks for all activities would reduce the number of cases by 200,000 ( $$95\%$$ 95 % CI 190,000–210,000) in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York State. The framework presented here might be used in any case where cause and effects are sparse in time.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article: Optimum Integration Procedure for Connectionist and Dynamic Field Equations.

    Rieznik, Andrés / Di Tella, Rocco / Schvartzman, Lara / Babino, Andrés

    Frontiers in neurorobotics

    2021  Volume 15, Page(s) 670895

    Abstract: Connectionist and dynamic field models consist of a set of coupled first-order differential equations describing the evolution in time of different units. We compare three numerical methods for the integration of these equations: the Euler method, and ... ...

    Abstract Connectionist and dynamic field models consist of a set of coupled first-order differential equations describing the evolution in time of different units. We compare three numerical methods for the integration of these equations: the Euler method, and two methods we have developed and present here: a modified version of the fourth-order Runge Kutta method, and one semi-analytical method. We apply them to solve a well-known nonlinear connectionist model of retrieval in single-digit multiplication, and show that, in many regimes, the semi-analytical and modified Runge Kutta methods outperform the Euler method, in some regimes by more than three orders of magnitude. Given the outstanding difference in execution time of the methods, and that the EM is widely used, we conclude that the researchers in the field can greatly benefit from our analysis and developed methods.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-05-28
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2453002-5
    ISSN 1662-5218
    ISSN 1662-5218
    DOI 10.3389/fnbot.2021.670895
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  4. Article: Masks and COVID-19: a causal framework for imputing value to public-health interventions

    Babino, Andres / Magnasco, Marcelo O.

    Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework ... ...

    Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework to assess these effects retrospectively. We use a regularized regression to find a parsimonious model that fits the data with the least changes in the Rt parameter. Then, we postulate each jump in Rt as the effect of an intervention. Following the do-operator prescriptions, we simulate the counterfactual case by forcing Rt to stay at the pre-jump value. We then attribute a value to the intervention from the difference between true evolution and simulated counterfactual. We show that the recommendation to use facemasks for all activities would reduce the number of cases by 170000 (95% CI 160000 to 180000) in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York State. The framework presented here might be used in any case where cause and effects are sparse in time.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher ArXiv
    Document type Article
    Database COVID19

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  5. Book ; Online: Masks and COVID-19

    Babino, Andres / Magnasco, Marcelo O.

    a causal framework for imputing value to public-health interventions

    2020  

    Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework ... ...

    Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework to assess these effects retrospectively. We use a regularized regression to find a parsimonious model that fits the data with the least changes in the Rt parameter. Then, we postulate each jump in Rt as the effect of an intervention. Following the do-operator prescriptions, we simulate the counterfactual case by forcing Rt to stay at the pre-jump value. We then attribute a value to the intervention from the difference between true evolution and simulated counterfactual. We show that the recommendation to use facemasks for all activities would reduce the number of cases by 170000 (95% CI 160000 to 180000) in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York State. The framework presented here might be used in any case where cause and effects are sparse in time.

    Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures
    Keywords Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution ; Statistics - Applications ; covid19
    Publishing date 2020-06-09
    Publishing country us
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article ; Online: Maintaining trust when agents can engage in self-deception.

    Babino, Andrés / Makse, Hernán A / DiTella, Rafael / Sigman, Mariano

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

    2018  Volume 115, Issue 35, Page(s) 8728–8733

    Abstract: The coexistence of cooperation and selfish instincts is a remarkable characteristic of humans. Psychological research has unveiled the cognitive mechanisms behind self-deception. Two important findings are that a higher ambiguity about others' social ... ...

    Abstract The coexistence of cooperation and selfish instincts is a remarkable characteristic of humans. Psychological research has unveiled the cognitive mechanisms behind self-deception. Two important findings are that a higher ambiguity about others' social preferences leads to a higher likelihood of acting selfishly and that agents acting selfishly will increase their belief that others are also selfish. In this work, we posit a mathematical model of these mechanisms and explain their impact on the undermining of a global cooperative society. We simulate the behavior of agents playing a prisoner's dilemma game in a random network of contacts. We endow each agent with these two self-deception mechanisms which bias her toward thinking that the other agent will defect. We study behavior when a fraction of agents with the "always defect" strategy is introduced in the network. Depending on the magnitude of the biases the players could start a cascade of defection or isolate the defectors. We find that there are thresholds above which the system approaches a state of complete distrust.
    MeSH term(s) Cooperative Behavior ; Culture ; Deception ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Prisoner Dilemma ; Professional Misconduct
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-08-13
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
    ZDB-ID 209104-5
    ISSN 1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
    ISSN (online) 1091-6490
    ISSN 0027-8424
    DOI 10.1073/pnas.1803438115
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  7. Article ; Online: Explicit and implicit monitoring in neurodegeneration and stroke.

    Garcia-Cordero, Indira / Sedeño, Lucas / Babino, Andrés / Dottori, Martín / Melloni, Margherita / Martorell Caro, Miguel / Sigman, Mariano / Herrera, Eduar / Manes, Facundo / García, Adolfo M / Ibáñez, Agustín

    Scientific reports

    2019  Volume 9, Issue 1, Page(s) 14032

    Abstract: Monitoring is a complex multidimensional neurocognitive phenomenon. Patients with fronto-insular stroke (FIS), behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) show a lack of self-awareness, insight, and self-monitoring, ... ...

    Abstract Monitoring is a complex multidimensional neurocognitive phenomenon. Patients with fronto-insular stroke (FIS), behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) show a lack of self-awareness, insight, and self-monitoring, which translate into anosognosia and daily behavioural impairments. Notably, they also present damage in key monitoring areas. While neuroscientific research on this domain has accrued in recent years, no previous study has compared monitoring performance across these brain diseases and none has applied a multiple lesion model approach combined with neuroimaging analysis. Here, we evaluated explicit and implicit monitoring in patients with focal stoke (FIS) and two types of dementia (bvFTD and AD) presenting damage in key monitoring areas. Participants performed a visual perception task and provided two types of report: confidence (explicit judgment of trust about their performance) and wagering (implicit reports which consisted in betting on their accuracy in the perceptual task). Then, damaged areas were analyzed via structural MRI to identify associations with potential behavioral deficits. In AD, inadequate confidence judgments were accompanied by poor wagering performance, demonstrating explicit and implicit monitoring impairments. By contrast, disorders of implicit monitoring in FIS and bvFTD patients occurred in the context of accurate confidence reports, suggesting a reduced ability to turn self-knowledge into appropriate wagering conducts. MRI analysis showed that ventromedial compromise was related to overconfidence, whereas fronto-temporo-insular damage was associated with excessive wagering. Therefore, joint assessment of explicit and implicit monitoring could favor a better differentiation of neurological profiles (frontal damage vs AD) and eventually contribute to delineating clinical interventions.
    MeSH term(s) Aged ; Alzheimer Disease/diagnosis ; Alzheimer Disease/diagnostic imaging ; Alzheimer Disease/physiopathology ; Alzheimer Disease/psychology ; Brain/diagnostic imaging ; Brain/physiopathology ; Case-Control Studies ; Frontotemporal Dementia/diagnosis ; Frontotemporal Dementia/diagnostic imaging ; Frontotemporal Dementia/physiopathology ; Frontotemporal Dementia/psychology ; Humans ; Judgment/physiology ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Monitoring, Physiologic ; Neuroimaging ; Stroke/diagnosis ; Stroke/diagnostic imaging ; Stroke/physiopathology ; Stroke/psychology ; Visual Perception/physiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-10-01
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-019-50599-x
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  8. Article: Conveniently upset

    Di Tella, Rafael / Babino, Andres / Perez-Truglia, Ricardo / Sigman, Mariano

    The American economic review Vol. 105, No. 11 , p. 3416-3442

    avoiding altruism by distorting beliefs about others' altruism

    2015  Volume 105, Issue 11, Page(s) 3416–3442

    Author's details by Rafael Di Tella, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Andres Babino, and Mariano Sigman
    Language English
    Publisher American Economic Assoc
    Publishing place Nashville, Tenn
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 203590x ; 2009979-4
    ISSN 0002-8282
    ISSN 0002-8282
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  9. Article ; Online: Explicit and implicit monitoring in neurodegeneration and stroke

    Indira Garcia-Cordero / Lucas Sedeño / Andrés Babino / Martín Dottori / Margherita Melloni / Miguel Martorell Caro / Mariano Sigman / Eduar Herrera / Facundo Manes / Adolfo M. García / Agustín Ibáñez

    Scientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2019  Volume 10

    Abstract: Abstract Monitoring is a complex multidimensional neurocognitive phenomenon. Patients with fronto-insular stroke (FIS), behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) show a lack of self-awareness, insight, and self- ... ...

    Abstract Abstract Monitoring is a complex multidimensional neurocognitive phenomenon. Patients with fronto-insular stroke (FIS), behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) show a lack of self-awareness, insight, and self-monitoring, which translate into anosognosia and daily behavioural impairments. Notably, they also present damage in key monitoring areas. While neuroscientific research on this domain has accrued in recent years, no previous study has compared monitoring performance across these brain diseases and none has applied a multiple lesion model approach combined with neuroimaging analysis. Here, we evaluated explicit and implicit monitoring in patients with focal stoke (FIS) and two types of dementia (bvFTD and AD) presenting damage in key monitoring areas. Participants performed a visual perception task and provided two types of report: confidence (explicit judgment of trust about their performance) and wagering (implicit reports which consisted in betting on their accuracy in the perceptual task). Then, damaged areas were analyzed via structural MRI to identify associations with potential behavioral deficits. In AD, inadequate confidence judgments were accompanied by poor wagering performance, demonstrating explicit and implicit monitoring impairments. By contrast, disorders of implicit monitoring in FIS and bvFTD patients occurred in the context of accurate confidence reports, suggesting a reduced ability to turn self-knowledge into appropriate wagering conducts. MRI analysis showed that ventromedial compromise was related to overconfidence, whereas fronto-temporo-insular damage was associated with excessive wagering. Therefore, joint assessment of explicit and implicit monitoring could favor a better differentiation of neurological profiles (frontal damage vs AD) and eventually contribute to delineating clinical interventions.
    Keywords Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 150
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Publishing Group
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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